Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
90s already beginning here.
5 months from now it’ll be late September..and probably have the same exact weather only more humid. Why can’t winter last half the year too?
I’m liking the -NAO signal heading into May, though. Many of the post-niño summers have a period of late-spring blocking, offering a final reprieve before hell starts. Hopefully we can take advantage of that opportunity.
Also would be another sign the system state is far-removed from the +TNH state that has dominated the majority of recent summers.
Action has started early. Be safe Oklahoma and Kansas folks.
Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist
The latest NADOCAST forecast of tornado probabilities has just gone through the roof across portions of Oklahoma into southern Kansas including OKC to Wichita. It will be interesting to see if this tornado outrbeak verifies. Stay tuned to watches and warnings across the southern Plains and have those family safety plans in place and ready to execute at the drop of a hat
Maybe some life giving sunshine from our Lord and Creator.
And since climate change is real and accelerating and all I hear on here is that its only a matter of time until the forests burn then it really doesn't matter anyways. Just re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic if the ship is inevitably sinking. Right Andrew? Lean into your climate change drama.
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