Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I’ll take this please.Second. Although not as good as in the past runs but higher amounts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Oax ain't buying in to the GFS or fv3 they are saying 2-3. Not sure why either. The rap and hrrr have upped the amounts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 oh well..................was holding out hope for NWI to get in on the action but doesn't look likely....Have fun guys!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 "Remember,hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies"--Andy Dufrane "Don't give up, don't ever give up"---Jimmy V My point with those quotes is obvious. I am done looking at models, time to look at real time reports, radar, satellites etc... Luckily I was out of town for the roller coaster that seems to have occurred here. Home now, to a blizzard warning fringe. 2 miles away just an advisory. I will take what we get in the morning and enjoy watching the radar. Too many ups and downs rolling with every model and run time for me! Enjoy the snow if you get it. If you don't. Meteorological winter is still a week away so take some solace in that! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Good luck to you all. Man that cutoff is crazy. Hope Bud and Hawkeye have good luck with that. And Eastdubzz. Hope you guys get some good snow. Good luck everyone in that direction and Tom, Jaster and Niko. Legit storm for everyone down there. Hopefully NE peeps get some good stuff too! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Updated LOT snowfall forecast.... I see the extreme Will County gradient will never die. God I hated that thing when I lived there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Liking the trends with hrrr and fv3! We should be under a blizzard warning here 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I know I'm crazy or just wishing to big but man this feels like the snow storm we had here on valentine's day 2003. They said 2-4 nothing major. Turned into a massive over night storm with over 12 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Well, I'd rather be on the northern edge of a Blizzard warning rather than the southern edge. Being on the southern edge didn't work out so well last winter. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Hrrr has low in same place as GFS fwiw at 12z Sunday, also already getting some light rain showers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Hrrr has low in same place as GFS fwiw at 12z Sunday, also already getting some light rain showersNoticed that, plus the rap has increased as well. Also light rain here already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 18z ICON shifted north from the 12z run as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Sucks that I'm missing a possible blizzard,but since the storm is earlier than it was earlier in the week,may as well root for high amounts in Lincoln now. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I don’t know if someone posted the 18z RGEM from today (or if it’s even a reliable tool to use). In any case, here’s what that came up with. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 New HRRR run looking insane for Lincoln. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 New HRRR run looking insane for Lincoln.Definitely seeing an upward trend and the low pushed up a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 New HRRR run looking insane for Lincoln.Good for Lincoln probably means good for us too. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The amount lines are super tight. 4 inches in Omaha 8 in Lincoln and I'm a county South of Omaha looks like 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Hrrr gives me near 5 now. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Sharpy? Stormhunter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Man, this thing is strong. Whoever falls into the heavy snow band, will likely get big snows. Good luck everyone. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 21z RAP http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018112421/039/snku_acc.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 15z SREF plume average is 10" for Cedar Rapids 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Sharpy? StormhunterYeah sarpy county. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 SREF mean is 6.4" for Omaha and 7.5" for Lincoln Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Sorry for not being active in the thread this week. I love tracking storms, but I find it hard to participate in a storm thread knowing I'm gonna miss it by a matter of hours without being jealous. Just figured I may as well say why I wasn't nearly as active in here as I normally am in storm threads. Hoping this pans out so I can come home to solid snowcover tomorrow. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I think a row of counties in Iowa will be added to WSW/BW if trends continue both on radar, RAP/HRRR, possibly with a 9 or 10pm update, maybe midnight. Grids have 4" for me just SW of DSM airport, SREF very similar to Bud in CR...9.3" avg for Des Moines. Range of 1" to 16"! Edit: That was 15z, 21z up to 10.9" average! With a dream high of 21.9" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looks like there will be a fairly large spread in snow amounts from northern Douglas County (the northern side of Omaha metro area) to southern Sarpy County (southern side). I am still thinking that 2-4 inches of snow looks likely across the area, however I am liking these last minute trends bringing the heavier snow amounts closer to Omaha and Lincoln. We have seen situations like this overperform around here in the past, we shall see what happens I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Huge jump on hour 12 to 13 hrrr for Lincoln. 4.9 to 6, definitely seeing some changes. Update that is a very healthy band for Lincoln, Omaha looking a bit weaker still better than earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Could we see some snow squall warnings out of this storm? It wasn't used much in the test phase last Winter, only a couple times in NY, so it'll be interesting. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Sorry for not being active in the thread this week. I love tracking storms, but I find it hard to participate in a storm thread knowing I'm gonna miss it by a matter of hours without being jealous. Just figured I may as well say why I wasn't nearly as active in here as I normally am in storm threads. Hoping this pans out so I can come home to solid snowcover tomorrow.I completely understand bud...if I had bought that plane ticket for $75 to AZ last week, I'd be feeling the same way and beating myself up for going! On the bright side, looks like you'll come back with snow OTG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Good luck to you all. Man that cutoff is crazy. Hope Bud and Hawkeye have good luck with that. And Eastdubzz. Hope you guys get some good snow. Good luck everyone in that direction and Tom, Jaster and Niko. Legit storm for everyone down there. Hopefully NE peeps get some good stuff too! Thanks man, hoping some more short-range runs start forcing the boys up in GR to re-think their current headlines across this part of the Mitt Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 HRRR http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018112500/028/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just fantastic...the 1st legit Blizzard of the Season evolving across the heartland...nice way to kick off the holiday season! My local grid suggesting 7-13"...that's a keeper... @St Paul, I'll also be taking screenshots of that radar imagery...that stuff is gonna look redic...1-2"/hr rates for over 6+ hours and some of it will fall during the daytime which is pretty cool. Two days ago, did you ever think you'd be reading that?? btw, just finished-up with my outside lights and I'm ready for my non-headlined event (per my NWS ofc ) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 NAM shows a little love to Lincoln no love for Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 NAM is staying majorly juiced this run. Big hit for Iowa City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Man, this thing is strong. Whoever falls into the heavy snow band, will likely get big snows. Good luck everyone. Thx Niko buddy. Gotta watch that sneaky RAP model. Looks like it has decent snow knocking on Macomb's door 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The NAM is showing 3"/hour snow rates in Eastern Iowa, which is simply not feasible here, so obviously this is overdone, but I could see 1 to 1.5" per hour rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 NAM up to 19.3" for iowa City by 6pm tomorrow. LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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