Iowawx Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The models in CR have a 13 inch spread. Ranging from 1 inch on the euro to 13.8 on the 3K NAM. I honestly have no idea how this will pan out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 18z Euro. Definitely not as north as every other model. 407FEEE9-6B86-4058-B73F-E01192FB0E68.jpeg Actually in lock-step with what the HRDPS has over SWMI - nice Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 How long have you been around there/SWMI? This is the classic GRR has their head up their a$$ scenario. Seems like every time we get a big dog on a holiday this happens. Happened for New Years Eve '13, Superbowl Storm '15, and now this at Thanksgiving weekend. I guess they aren't Chicago so they don't have to hear any outcry from millions of peeps.I’ve lived hear my whole life. They talk up nothing and are taken by surprise a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I couldn't read a sounding to save my life, but from somebody who can, this catches my eye Some of the forecast soundings off the 18z HRRR are showing 65kts at 925 northwest of the low later tomorrow afternoon. That's seriously impressive. With heavy precip falling and some convective elements it would result in very strong wind gust potential simultaneous with heavy snow falling. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Gfs looks nice for you NE peeps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Wow GFS is not backing off. I would laugh so hard if it got the last laugh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Lincoln gets blasted on the GFS Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 GFS a little stronger, perhaps just a smidge further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I couldn't read a sounding to save my life, but from somebody who can, this catches my eyeThat is indeed impressive. Basically hurricane level winds just 2200 feet to maybe 2700 feet off the ground. That can be dangerous for aircraft obviously, as its speed sheer and potentially speed and directional sheer. Wouldn't be surprised if that does come true that airports suspend operations for a bit until the wind sheer subsides. And if that translates to the surface...hello, white out conditions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Reading into GRR wording they are worried about temps here in Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 WOW. Gfs now 6 to 10 for me in Omaha. This is a bizzare storm Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 That is indeed impressive. Basically hurricane level winds just 2200 feet to maybe 2700 feet off the ground. That can be dangerous for aircraft obviously, as its speed sheer and potentially speed and directional sheer. Wouldn't be surprised if that does come true that airports suspend operations for a bit until the wind sheer subsides. And if that translates to the surface...hello, white out conditions!That scares the out of me, my sister leaves Omaha tomorrow at 11 am, she lives in Las Vegas and had to take her back tonight to stay because we didn’t think we would make it tomorrow! I just hope she can fly out safely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Gfs is quite a bit north from 18z... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 yes please. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112500/033/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 In my opinion, DMX should or hopefully will add Madison and Adair, perhaps Cass counties up to a warning. Maybe even the counties towards I80 (Des Moines metro) as the southern half of those counties are in heavy snows on a lot of the models. Already at 34 at my place, so any rain will be very short lived Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Lincoln gets blasted on the GFS and Omaha lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 As bad as I want the GFS to be right, it is pretty much all on its own Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 That scares the s**t out of me, my sister leaves Omaha tomorrow at 11 am, she lives in Las Vegas and had to take her back tonight to stay because we didn’t think we would make it tomorrow! I just hope she can fly out safely.I hope she has safe travels. I just flew back in today luckily. A lot will depend on timing of her departure and where the low is as well as the aircraft type, and of course pilot experience. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 As bad as I want the GFS to be right, it is pretty much all on its ownI think this has more surprises for us; snow is a couple hours ahead of happening in parts of central nebraska. I think when we look back at this storm it’s a combination of the gfs and euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 It's way too late to be looking at GFS. It's almost too late to be looking at models in general. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Black and white map of the GGEM appears to be similar to the RGEM. And that isn't too far from the NAM or GFS. Canadian models are just a bit further south than the American ones, but not a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 GGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 KC metro just added to the blizzard warning. That has to be a first for Nov! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I’ve lived hear my whole life. They talk up nothing and are taken by surprise a lot. Only 1 guy there is a fan of cold and snow, thus why a snowstorm never gets paid too much attention, let alone hyped. Reading into GRR wording they are worried about temps here in Michigan. I knew they'd be reaching into their bag of annual excuses to pull that very old and worn card out. That's the one they love to pull when all else fails, lol. Ofc, non of us know until it's done and over, but certainly for you up there temps shouldn't be the issue it may be down here. I think one problem is that it's been like decades since this type of system has come around and they just don't have much firsthand experience to lean on. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 LOT update... Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 KC metro just added to the blizzard warning. That has to be a first for Nov!Last time the NWSKansasCity office issued a Blizzard Warning for any of the counties they are responsible for was Wed. Dec 19th 2012. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Last time the NWSKansasCity office issued a Blizzard Warning for any of the counties they are responsible for was Wed. Dec 19th 2012. I don't believe they have ever issued one in the month of November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 0z HRRR N IL with some sick snowfall rates! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Snowflakes have begun to fall, mixing in with rain. Now hopefully the gfs turns out to be right! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 3z RAP showing a foot for Iowa City Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I really don't know what to expect. This afternoon it looked like 0-1". Good luck MXK! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The newest run of the HRRR looks really good for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Doesn't quite cover whole storm yet, but heavy bands are shown in the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 0z HRRR N IL with some sick snowfall rates! 2-3" per/hr Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 So, 0z HRRR has slowed the storm down a bit and seems to have joined the Euro camp for SMI. Meanwhile, the 12km NAM went bonkers strong and NW. Model mayhem continues.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 MI peeps need to watch this....it can go either way Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Also, HRDPS at 18z snowfall map gives this area about 9-10" in about a 9 hr period from midnight Sunday night to 9 am Monday. I'd take that and run! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 MI peeps need to watch this....it can go either way GRR says "nothing to see here, move along.." Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Well enough model watching tonight. I'm praying for a GFS surprise when I wake up lol. Gabel23 that is awesome. That is a quick change over! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 GRR says "nothing to see here, move along.." Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Such a compacted system. Usually they cut a little for SMI and bring the temps up above freezing. Doesn’t look like this one will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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