Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Jaycee]

Well the models are still good, but I dont like how the clipper dumps snow north of us then it re phases just south. eastern Nebraska is just in a weird transition zone. Hoping it can just get its act together a few hours earlier.

Omg I remember when that would happen out there haha it’s sooo frustrating. We’re not even in the NAM zone yet, so plenty of time for change! Doubt that the areas outlined with the heavy snow axis will hols true to when it’s on shore, let alone when it’s actually snowing. I think this is a SE NE/NE MO/N IL special in the works. Just gotta have it phase a tad quicker and we’re all in business.

[Jaycee]

Also! Not sure if anybody has ever used this website, but I use it sometimes, especially for temp and wind as it’s so precise. It gives the updates on the GEM, GFS, and ICON. Here’s the link:

 

https://www.ventusky.com

[gabel23]

Also! Not sure if anybody has ever used this website, but I use it sometimes, especially for temp and wind as it’s so precise. It gives the updates on the GEM, GFS, and ICON. Here’s the link:

 

https://www.ventusky.com

Dude this is awesome, thanks for sharing! 

[jcwxguy]

Anybody have the QPF total maps from the UMMET?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

 

Anybody have the QPF total maps from the UMMET?

 

Not bad. That would be about 6-9 inches considering how cold it would be.

[jcwxguy]

Euro Ensembles, seem north of the op

[GDR]

I definitely wouldn’t want to be on the northern Edge. The euro did a good job last time

[james1976]

Dont be needing that northern stream to be goin anymore south now. Gettin close to that sharp cutoff again.

[St Paul Storm]

See my post above. Three days before the last storm, the Euro had me getting no snow. I got 12 inches.

 

There wasn’t a 1045mb high screaming in from the NW during the last storm. Dry arctic air is going to eat away at the snow on the northern fringe. Northern edge is not where you want to be.

[Stacsh]

Lower Michigan is a snow repellent this year. Expect this to skirt the state line. Followed by NE flow and miss LES all together lol

[Madtown]

[Nelson]

Might be talking about the wrong storm.......

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f216.gif

[dubuque473]

Also! Not sure if anybody has ever used this website, but I use it sometimes, especially for temp and wind as it’s so precise. It gives the updates on the GEM, GFS, and ICON. Here’s the link:

https://www.ventusky.com

Great site Thanks for posting.

[Niko]

Agreed. Has to come thru SWMI first tho..

 

15/0z Euro. That has to bliz or near for MO into IL

 

Jaster ma man, this has potential to be a bigly one. My forecast looks awesome. Ample cold air along w it.

 

FWIW: I think the storm next week will be even stronger. My forecast looks scary. Man...and the arctic air that follows after both storms is brutal. I am below zero Sunday and the following week as well.

[Stormhunter87]

Nam is better but yeah need to watch the next system.

[Yerf]

From LOT this afternoon:

Owing to the complex nature of this setup, the GEFS and EPS
ensemble suites were more stable and if anything trended
wetter/slightly north in the means. Main message about the winter
storm does not change. Despite the long lead, the ensembles are in
excellent agreement in the entire area being in line for
accumulating snow, with moisture availability/PWATs certainly
capable of producing a swath of 6"+

[GDR]

This sucker could be a big one but right now it’s looking like a turd

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Perfect track for snow for a lot of Nebraska, it just has to slow down a tad.

[bud2380]

The GFS has been consistent the past 3 or 4 runs in showing a nice hole in the snow directly over Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.  Heavy snow north, south, east, and west.  Glad we're still 84 hours out.  It's gotta be wrong, right?

[Tony]

From LOT this afternoon:

Owing to the complex nature of this setup, the GEFS and EPS

ensemble suites were more stable and if anything trended

wetter/slightly north in the means. Main message about the winter

storm does not change. Despite the long lead, the ensembles are in

excellent agreement in the entire area being in line for

accumulating snow, with moisture availability/PWATs certainly

capable of producing a swath of 6"+

Very nice write-up on how complex this storm really is and the chances of it becoming a pretty big deal. Ensembles as he mentioned have stayed the course and have become wetter as well so we cannot just rely on the operational modeling. This storm is far from being a dud.

[Niko]

The ECMWF buries Chicago next wk w the 2nd big dog......WHOAAAAA

[bud2380]

FV3 is a much better hit for E Iowa than the regular GFS.  Even on the 10:1 map it's got 4-6+".  

[Tony]

18z GEFS looking a much better

[Money]

Some good trends up this way. CMC/GFS all with 4+

[Stormhunter87]

Wow local forecasters are actually going high with the amounts. Probably an omen lol

[jcwxguy]

Fv3

[Stormhunter87]

Definitely an omen, Frankie just posted about a "blizzard" here. I actually like the guy but he is a curse for snow. Sigh

[Niko]

18z GEFS looking a much better

Yep...came more north.

[hlcater]

Yep...came more north.

 

Like a mile, but north nonetheless. I'll take it.

[Minny_Weather]

Craig's call of 12-18" last night ain't looking too good

[St Paul Storm]

Some good trends up this way. CMC/GFS all with 4+

Some models show you getting more snow than others that are expecting a big dog. Still tons to be figured out with this system.

[Niko]

TWC:

 

Higher confidence:

• A swath from the Plains to the lower Midwest to the interior Northeast and New England may pick up heavy snowfall.
• The highest probability of heavy snow currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes to northern New England this weekend.

[Niko]

Like a mile, but north nonetheless. I'll take it.

Every bit counts amigo!!

[jcwxguy]

Craig's call of 12-18" last night ain't looking too good

way too early to make that call

[hlcater]

way too early to make that call

 

It's stuff like that which make actual meteorologists warn the public against listening to all these weather pages on Facebook and Twitter. Come on Craig, you gotta be more responsible than that.

[Hawkeye]

Every model is showing that initial band of snow streaking out of SD through northern Iowa.  Locations that get stuck just south of that band may be the screw hole.  That dry hole has shown up on some of the models several runs in a row.

[GDR]

It's stuff like that which make actual meteorologists warn the public against listening to all these weather pages on Facebook and Twitter. Come on Craig, you gotta be more responsible than that.

what’s his page?

[hlcater]

what’s his page?

 

Like "Snow Day" on Facebook or something like that. It's linked in his signature.

[Money]

Some models show you getting more snow than others that are expecting a big dog. Still tons to be figured out with this system.

Yeah seems like that band is starting to creep more and more north.

 

Gem has had it over my area last few days and gfs keeps lifting it farther north as well now

[Stormhunter87]

It's stuff like that which make actual meteorologists warn the public against listening to all these weather pages on Facebook and Twitter. Come on Craig, you gotta be more responsible than that.

Yes and no. I am not a meteorologist but my old man is and he has never had an issue with it. Plus I am not a fan of meteorologist slamming people for sharing information that you can find in a blink of an eye. Personal opinion though.