gimmesnow Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Seems like it’s the Euro/NAM/UK vs GFS/CMC NAM seems a lot more sane with the temps. I'm not as knowledgeable as most of you, but I feel like going from 13 as a high to upper 30s back to low 20s then single digit highs seems a little crazy. NAM seems to think it'll only reach the upper 20s on the 23rd, I don't know how that warm air can move so far up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 NAM seems a lot more sane with the temps. I'm not as knowledgeable as most of you, but I feel like going from 13 as a high to upper 30s back to low 20s then single digit highs seems a little crazy. NAM seems to think it'll only reach the upper 20s on the 23rd, I don't know how that warm air can move so far up here.The low would have to be strong enough to pull that warm air in. Some models favour that, is it possible yes but unlikely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Storm comes onshore tonight. HWO -- OAX A storm system will move through the region Monday and Tuesday.This should produce areas of freezing drizzle and some snowaccumulation. Ice accumulations Monday night into Tuesday morningcould reach 0.15". Snow amounts from late Monday nightthrough Tuesday are presently forecast around 2 to 5 inches,mainly north of Interstate 80. If traveling Monday night andTuesday, keep up with the latest road conditions and forecasts.Gusty northwest winds on the backside of the system Tuesday willresult in falling temperatures and areas of blowing snow. Somewind gusts may reach 35 to 40 mph. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 DVN saying 5” for me. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 18z GFS FV3 does not cut the Low through SE Nebraska like before and instead passes near Falls City before heading E/NE This broadens the axis of heavy snow overall but still keeps Omaha on the edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 MKX Situation Report has me at 4-6 inches - would love to see that amount of snow on top of what we’ve got already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Fv3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Local weatherman said this evening that SEMI will get accumulating snows b4 changing to rain and end abruptly. Suburbs of Detroit will see higher accumulations and stay as snow longer. So, we will see how this turns out. I think my area goes from snow to rain at the very end. Perhaps, some freezing drizzle. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Interesting. Lots of snowpack and cold air to overcome south of mid Michigan. Could be icy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 DMX has 6+ from my area north and east with a large 3-6 around that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 18z euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 ^ Thank you for posting this. Does anyone know if 18Z EURO/ CMC use upper air (updated upper air , ie, not 12Z stuff?) Curious and not just for this event. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 The 18z euro inched north. The CR airport went from 4 to 1. C'mon, man, just shift south 20-40 miles. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 The 18z euro inched north. The CR airport went from 4 to 1. C'mon, man, just shift south 20-40 miles.Some adjustments are still possible tomorrow and even into early Tuesday, so plenty of time to figure this one out. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 local nets calling for 5-8 in madison 3-7 in the tier along the boarder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 Here’s the latest graphic from MPX. Widespread 4-6”. Talking ground blizzard conditions in open areas after the storm west and south of the metro. No headlines due to the long duration, light snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 As per usual this season, MI peeps ride the edge, awaiting our fate to see if the S camp or N camp wins out. At least with yesterday's storm, we knew the SLP would be south of us. This riding the line stuff is ruining the fun of tracking. You don't dare get invested if it's just going to end up north and a very dis-heartening rainer/ruiner. IF, like Nov's storm and yesterday's to some extent, the tide turns favorably, it has done so in the final 36 hrs and even then you're left to cross body parts in hopes the models aren't hitting you for one final tease-play. Seems I remember an era when models were less "jumpy" and things trended better from d3 to d1. Now it seems we don't know until it's knocking on our door. 18z FV3 disgusts me. It's an exact replica of Dec 1st in track and rain swath. Hopefully I don't hit 57F the next day like I did on 12/2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 I was just gonna post I think the post storm winds could be an issue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 00Z NAM looks like it's a tad south so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 ANOTHER 1 to 3 incher for my area. Probably the 10th time since October. Yippee.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 0z NAM looks like a weak loser so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 0Z NAM increased snow amounts slightly for Iowa. 2-4 inches for most of Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 3km NAM looks quite weak Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 RGEM significantly stronger than the NAM and further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 3km NAM = What storm? More of a snizzle event! lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 NAM is way overdoing ratios to our North. 15:1-20:1 in places where it's snow throughout the duration vs. 10:1 down here. 10:1 is more realistic throughout the state with the WAA imo. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 so when does the NAM blink from it's cold solution transitioning the rain to snow south of the low here in SMI? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 NAM is way overdoing ratios to our North. 15:1-20:1 in places where it's snow throughout the duration vs. 10:1 down here. 10:1 is more realistic throughout the state with the WAA imo.Why is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 RGEM significantly stronger than the NAM and further north. Nice to look @ but seems way too amped for a weak shearing storm pos-tilted even 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 GFS with a very slight shift S in C.IA (all the difference for some)- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 Tight south gradient with GFS. It can stay put now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 MKX is forecasting 6-8" here. This thing better not move anymore North. The rain/snow line is not too far away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 Gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012100&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 Why is that?I said it in the post. Temps aloft. Has a razor thin cutoff simply due to ratios and I just don't see that happening. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 I will gladly punt that GFS run. I do NOT want >32 rain to start out the storm. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 I said it in the post. Temps aloft. Has a razor thin cutoff simply due to ratios and I just don't see that happening.Temps aloft are much colder in the snow band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 As much as I was expecting a south trend, it doesn't look like that's gonna happen. Oh well. I'll take my 34 and rain on top of deep snow. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 MKX is forecasting 6-8" here. This thing better not move anymore North. The rain/snow line is not too far away. Seems after one decent storm, they're back to throwing caution to the wind. This seems far from a sure bet, even for their CWA Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 GFS with a very slight shift S in C.IA (all the difference for some)- USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_051.gifzoomed in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 As much as I was expecting a south trend, it doesn't look like that's gonna happen. Oh well. I'll take my 34 and rain on top of deep snow. Yet to be sampled iiuc, so hold that thought Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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