February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 37 here.  Everything has melted. Things will be fine if the EC verifies though. 

[Guest Sounder]

So, when exactly should I start getting excited?

Get excited now but just remember that if and when the models pull back on this, life will go on. If the GFS comes fully on board tonight, feel free to your pants though.

[Blizzard777]

You didn't counter it with swimming in the ocean? What part did u go to? Maui?

 

Disney Aulani Oahu and I lived in the water. Surfing (at least trying), snorkeling , swimming, none stop ping pong and being pounded by shorebreak waves at Waimea Bay body surfing! https://www.youtube.com/embed/wnNrd-VjLsQ?rel=0&showinfo=0&autoplay=1&playsinline=1&enablejsapi=1

 

Thinking about it must of been the Costco tub of chocolate macadamias

[Requiem]

Get excited now but just remember that if and when the models pull back on this, life will go on. If the GFS comes fully on board tonight, feel free to s**t your pants though.

 

Oh of course. I'm not expecting the GFS operational to come on board, but ensembles on all models are looking very good (which is a plus).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Disney Aulani Oahu and I lived in the water. Surfing (at least trying), snorkeling , swimming, none stop ping pong and being pounded by shorebreak waves at Waimea Bay body surfing! https://www.youtube.com/embed/wnNrd-VjLsQ?rel=0&showinfo=0&autoplay=1&playsinline=1&enablejsapi=1

 

Did you see anything fun while snorkeling?  I was about 5 feet from a 10 foot Manta that swam right under me in Maui back in 2015.

[BLI snowman]

Yet you, of all people, roundly ignored it plus the low solar factor. Some people never learn...

 

A method that will work out two decades in a row 

[Front Ranger]

Who from the forum went on vacation during this period? That's who we really need to thank and remember.

[SeattleWXGuy]

Pretty intense YWL-BLI gradient setting up Saturday, showing in the neighborhood of 30mb. Impressive...

[Phil]

That's too cold to snow, must be fake.

If only all climates were created equal.

 

4 degree snow doesn’t happen where dry, downslopey, offshore flow under high pressure is required to achieve said temperature.

[Deweydog]

This pattern may inspire me to go back to school and get my doctorate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Should be some fun statements watches and warnings coming from the NWS this week. Then we will also get to read them all again when Moss Man posts them in 2026. Lol

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This pattern may inspire me to go back to school and get my doctorate.

 

Publish or perish.  Maybe you can work on a text with Cliff Mass.

[Requiem]

Should be some fun statements watches and warnings coming from the NWS this week. Then we will also get to read them all again when Moss Man posts them in 2026. Lol

 

Nope. Seasonal weather ahead courtesy of NWS PDX.

[Alex_Snakes]

Now I want to see what the 18z GFS is going to do for Friday/Saturday. 

[ShawniganLake]

BTW, I mentioned this before, does anyone have any clue as to what the snow ratios would be for your area? It will be interesting if it is different that the usual 10:1. I know where I live since it is colder it can be higher.

If the temps are in the 20s with dry Fraser River outflow. Pretty common to see ratios of 20:1 when precip does fall. I think the Fraser valley had some 20:1 ratios in February 2017

[GHweatherChris]

Now I want to see what the 18z GFS is going to do for Friday/Saturday.

Rain

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I expect the PDX NWS pulls the trigger on this at the last second.

[Phil]

I was just thinking that too.

 

No better way to end the lamenting of the good old days then blowing away even our most insane cold and snowy months in history.

Been saying this for awhile..if all-time cold/snow records can be smashed in Midwest/East, they can be smashed in the PNW too. It is bound to happen at some point, and it might be about to happen now.

 

There is nothing unique about the climate picture that precludes the PNW from joining the party. There has been some bad luck in recent decades w/ feedback loops involving WPAC convection and intraseasonal timings not lining up right, but that can’t last forever.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

In-fuccking-sane.

 

Every frame of the EPS has looked basically the same for the last 2 weeks going out 15 days.

 

There is no variability.   There is ALWAYS variability.    I honestly cannot remember anything like this since I have been looking at weather models.

I see this kind of stability in the EPS all the time.

 

In the summer.

[ShawniganLake]

Who from the forum went on vacation during this period? That's who we really need to thank and remember.

When I left for Quesnel last Sunday I said I was bringing the arctic air back with me. I got home Sunday night. You are all welcome.

 

And I saw that plenty of snowfall at -15F. Not too cold to snow.

[Kayla]

Not something you see everyday for the lowlands of the PNW from the CPC.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

[Front Ranger]

A method that will work out two decades in a row 

 

It's really a win-win for everyone. Watch Justin get b*tch slapped by Mother Nature, AND get regional winter madness.

[jakeinthevalley]

This pattern may inspire me to go back to school and get my doctorate.

Classes will be cancelled, silly.

[TT-SEA]

I see this kind of stability in the EPS all the time.

 

In the summer.

 

I know you are sort of joking here... but I have not seen this lack of variability ever.   Even in our hottest months... the patterns are still changing.   This is beyond crazy right now.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is above freezing... forks out!   

[Requiem]

Not something you see everyday for the lowlands of the PNW from the CPC.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

 

Just misses Portland, but I'm not terribly concerned with details this far out. I'm sure we'll get something at the very least.

[Phil]

Looks to me once the set up starts friday it very well could stay locked with the ridge where we need it. What u think?

Yes, into the third week of February the pattern looks very stable with a solid upper level cold source.

 

My gut instinct is that snowstorm chances will become increasingly high especially for Oregon with time, because a modest (but not overwhelming) jet extension off Siberia/East-Asia will add some momentum around the stable -PNA ridge (both into the STJ the northern jet) which would favor an inverse N/S gradient with time. At least based on what I can derive from the relevant 1998-present era which holds the most analogous Pacific Hadley Cell climatology.

 

So I do think the “big kahuna” of this event is favored to end up centered south towards Oregon, but certainly the entire region is in the crosshairs.

[Alex_Snakes]

Rain

 

Probably. 18z does what 18z does. 

[bainbridgekid]

18z NAM hugs the coast more than the GFS. Looks snowy Friday afternoon around the Sound.

 

[Deweydog]

Classes will be cancelled, silly.

F*ck it. I can just buy one online.

[Front Ranger]

SEA is above freezing... forks out!   

 

Pretty difficult to remain below freezing with full sunshine this time of year, at least for most stations. 

[Phil]

Meanwhile, it’s 71*F and sunny here on the east coast. One week ago it was 5*F with 55+mph winds. Like a different world outside.

 

Eat your heart out, Tim.

[BLI snowman]

It's really a win-win for everyone. Watch Justin get b*tch slapped by Mother Nature, AND get regional winter madness.

 

Just gotta wait another decade now    6-7s usually work out okay, though. Maybe 8 years.

[BLI snowman]

18z NAM hugs the coast more than the GFS. Looks snowy Friday afternoon around the Sound.

 

 

 

NAM evolution looks more like the Euro. Sets us up beautifully for Saturday.

[Requiem]

NAM evolution looks more like the Euro. Sets us up beautifully for Saturday.

 

Which day has the most potential for NW Oregon?

[Andrew.]

[jakeinthevalley]

F*ck it. I can just buy one online.

'Merica

[Phil]

Yet you, of all people, roundly ignored it plus the low solar factor. Some people never learn...

Hard to deny the solar factor in this era.

 

The geomag/solar wind in particular has correlated fantastically to PNA/warm pool tendencies (hence PNW winters) since the 1990s.

 

[Blizzard777]

31.3*

[Phil]

This is 15 days out...

 

#ItsHappening #NoReallyItsActuallyHappeningThisTime