joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 here's also the 12z FV3 who anyone who hasn't seen it yet. mainly 8-12" for the sound, with the highest totals of 12-14" in west kitsap. 8-10" for seattle, tacoma, and olympia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 12z WRF looking snowy again for many. Snow doesn't start until after 4PM. I wonder why there has always been a dry space around the Enumclaw area, is this most likely due to the drying east winds that may make an appearance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Trending worse and worse for here.You will score. I'd bet a fiddle of gold. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3-GFS actually shows PDX now being ground zero with the weekend event. 1 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright31 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I like it. Still skeptical about the temps, thoughScreenshot (182).pnghere's also the 12z FV3 who anyone who hasn't seen it yet. mainly 8-12" for the sound, with the highest totals of 12-14" in west kitsap. 8-10" for seattle, tacoma, and olympia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3-GFS actually shows PDX being ground zero with the weekend event.in both the seattle and portland areas, it has the highest totals of 12-14" west of both cities. here in seattle, it would be west kitsap and in portland it would be the coastal mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 yeah, expecting the seattle NWS to issue a winter storm watch later today or tomorrow. I'd be surprised if they pull the trigger before tomorrow morning. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3-GFS actually shows PDX now being ground zero with the weekend event. Rod Hill has that covered. Rain/snow mix at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 in both the seattle and portland areas, it has the highest totals of 12-14" west of both cities. here in seattle, it would be west kitsap and in portland it would be the coastal mountains.Amounts on the FV3 have been dwindling up here. I think it's showing higher outflow which means more snow is dried out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I'd be surprised if they pull the trigger before tomorrow morning.winter storm watches are issued 2 days prior at the most, so i'd expect them to issue either tonight or tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Worried about Monday-Tuesday being completely removed. I still think something will happen, even in Portland. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Amounts on the FV3 have been dwindling up here. I think it's showing higher outflow which means more snow is dried out. still shows a good 6" for the victoria area in the latest run. don't lose hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3-GFS actually shows PDX now being ground zero with the weekend event. Yeah, it's shows PDX changing over to snow by Saturday 4am. Nice moderate snow all day Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Amounts on the FV3 have been dwindling up here. I think it's showing higher outflow which means more snow is dried out.It still looks decent for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Canadian went full Euro again, about 20" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 FWIW the RGEM shows snow already falling by early Friday morning in the SEA area. Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright31 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 FWIW the RGEM shows snow already falling by early Friday morning in the SEA area. Problematic. Higher likelihood it rains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewnichols25 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 only got down to 22F, bottomed out around 7am this morning.Are you in a wind-exposed location? Hit 17 here earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3-GFS actually shows PDX now being ground zero with the weekend event. Overdone, but I am liking the consensus track right now. With the low staying offshore, Multnomah and Clark Counties should stay in ESE flow the whole time on Saturday even with the low to our north. Should be plenty of wet snow on Saturday morning with that if the precip rates are as modeled, before the stronger offshore flow moves in Saturday afternoon and we drop below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Worried about Monday-Tuesday being completely removed. I still think something will happen, even in Portland. My guess is this operational GFS run will be a huge outlier on the ensembles in that time frame. Not handling the cutoff energy well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 So many new members, so many new opinions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 12z fv3. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Problematic. Higher likelihood it rains. What makes you say that? Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 So many new members, so many new opinions... Smells like a bunch of librul millenials. I'm already mad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Canadian went full Euro again, about 20" here. sn10_acc.us_nw.png where the heck are you located? Bellingham, Blythe or brush prairie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Overdone, but I am liking the consensus track right now. With the low staying offshore, Multnomah and Clark Counties should stay in ESE flow the whole time on Saturday even with the low to our north. Should be plenty of wet snow on Saturday morning with that if the precip rates are as modeled, before the stronger offshore flow moves in Saturday afternoon and we drop below freezing. Yeah it's a fine line though. Don't want it to trend anymore offshore that's for sure. Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Are you in a wind-exposed location? Hit 17 here earlier this morning.don't think so. winds have been calm most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 My guess is this operational GFS run will be a huge outlier on the ensembles in that time frame. Not handling the cutoff energy well. I think he is caling some of these negative posts “jokes”. This may be one of them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 in anticipation of this weekend's potentially historic snowstorm, im watching this timelapse again of the historic snowstorm in the northeast 3 years ago. dropped 2-3ft along the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright31 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Precipitation hits during the warm period on Friday. I would hope that it waits a little bit until after the cooldown starts on Friday night to prevent any rain issues. What makes you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Worried about Monday-Tuesday being completely removed. I still think something will happen, even in Portland.Then you shouldn't be worried. You're right, "something" will happen. Keep studying the models, do your due diligence and enjoy the possibilities. Sometimes we win, sometimes we don't. Things look promising right now but it's never an absolute like some try to make it be until it happens. We all want snow. Patience is part of this game we play here. Worry won't make it happen or not. Enjoy the journey! It will warm up one of these days. We will return to rain, split flow, and moss. Don't waste the here and now. These are the fun times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I think he is caling some of these negative posts “jokes”. This may be one of them That wasn't a negative post. The operational GFS was much worse for the early week period compared to other models. I think it's an outlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 So many new members, so many new opinions... My gut feeling is that the models continue pushing the snow progressively farther south with each run and seattle gets the short stick like in 2012 while Portland gets 14 inches. How did I do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 where the heck are you located? Bellingham, Blythe or brush prairie? Just ESE of Ridgefield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright31 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Smells like a bunch of librul millenials. I'm already mad. More like Gen Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 That wasn't a negative post. The operational GFS was much worse for the early week period compared to other models. I think it's an outlier Or maybe you meant K12 and understood mine. Can't keep up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 My guess is this operational GFS run will be a huge outlier on the ensembles in that time frame. Not handling the cutoff energy well. Yep, I hope so. Especially since it was such a radical departure from previous runs. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Precipitation hits during the warm period on Friday. I would hope that it waits a little bit until after the cooldown starts on Friday night to prevent any rain issues. 925mb temps are forecasted to be around -3c with offshore flow Friday morning. You won't see any rain. Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Canadian went full Euro again, about 20" here. sn10_acc.us_nw.pngNice and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Keep posting model frames of all kinds and sharing this forum around. We are building a time capsule to what is already unprecedented in the model era and if the next couple weeks play out, something that rivals an all time great event. When this is done, I'll spend a weekend and you your posts, maps, images, and obs to build a story from the first frame with a block to the last flake from the sky.It would be interesting to go back to the January forum to just before the models starting locking in on this. IIRC, it had been showing something good, backed off on it for awhile, then suddenly starting showing something good and here we are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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