February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[jakerepp]

3 new inches tonight. Looks like its all but stopped here and radar appears to be diminishing. Impressive stuff considering it only snowed for 3 hours or so!

[Jesse]

If you're gonna call Tim out, mention the devil by name.

It’s not just him.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS isn't great for Tues/Wed, but still better than the ICON. Late week trough looks to arrive as scheduled.

[Kayla]

You guys just love feeding the beast...

 

Btw, saw you mentioned Livingston the other day as a cold funnel source for the western lowlands? With Livingston/Bozeman being east of the divide seems far fetched or did I totally misread it within the other rapid fire posts?

[epiceast]

It’s not just him.

Yeah, but it's a "tim" problem as iFred pointed out earlier.

[wxmet]

GFS has steadily been trending north with the low on Wednesday. Just need some more phasing and this could truly be a regional event.

 

#alllowstrendnorth

[MikeInEverett]

That CZ looks like a beast. If it stalls somewhere things are gonna get crazy.

[Jesse]

Yeah, but it's a "tim" problem as iFred pointed out earlier.

Indeed.

[ewnichols25]

3 new inches tonight. Looks like its all but stopped here and radar appears to be diminishing. Impressive stuff considering it only snowed for 3 hours or so!

CZ is heading south.

[epiceast]

00z WRF completely blew tonights event this even though the storm was in 6 hour range...

[jcmcgaffey]

Are you telling me winds flow towards the low? THIS IS BRAND NEW INFORMATION.

 

I thought you had either turned a new leaf or you were doing much better at hiding your trolling for the better part of this season. Now I'm realizing it's just because we didn't have any winter events for you to be able to happily troll. It's all becoming clearer now!

 

Anyways, you will retort that it's really me and I'm this crazy person and you just posted a couple snowy WSDOT cameras so you truly are a different person! Meanwhile, nothing will ever change and you'll continue to get kicks out of posting asinine things at the oddest of times just to piss people off. Given that and your message to me earlier asking me to be nicer to you I will say this is the last I comment I will give you the pleasure of being able to come up with a "I'm the victim" response. Good day, sir.

I think you are reading into it too much. I want to hear both sides and what really might happen. Tim analyzes things better than most. Maybe he is going further than normal just to make a point but it is not ridiculous or something we all don’t do. It’s not like he is just randomly posited that we are screwed with nothing to back it up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS shifted a bit towards the NAM for Tuesday night. Phases the northern and southern energy a bit better and stalls the front over OR. Not nearly as dynamic though, nor as far north with the CA low. 

 

Yeah, it has the right ingredients moving in the right direction. Just not as dynamic a system modeled on the GFS. Not a bad trend though. It's all about that deep low off the California coast and what it does. The ICON weakened it and drifted it to far north.

[TT-SEA]

00z WRF completely blew tonights event this even though the storm was in 6 hour range...

 

 

So did the ECMWF this morning.  

[Snowfreak]

That CZ looks like a beast. If it stalls somewhere things are gonna get crazy.

Bet Clearview gets blasted!

[ttt]

Madrona (E Capitol Hill) at 7:45

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I guess instead of gaslighting Tim, Silverton Tim, Frontrange Tim, and KVUO Snowman, I probably should be serious.

 

There hasn’t been a single run that was right, even that one guy jamming Euro frames down everyone’s throat was wrong. Cold will linger on and unless there is significant mixing at the surface, I am still holding onto hope.

 

  Hey now.

 

All I've done is offer realistic analysis. Hopefully that is still welcome here.

[Deweydog]

Been a while since we were looking north at the 540 thickness line...

[epiceast]

So did the ECMWF this morning.  

Slightly different magnitude of a problem, one of them couldn't even initialize the data on radar 3 hours out correctly. So will this CZ slide to Northern Seattle and maybe even downtown? Looks like the low hasn't died as at is going inland.  There is upslope flow hitting the bullseye of this multi-week event again. 

[Snowfreak]

Madrona (E Capitol Hill) at 7:45

 

Nice!  How much of that is from tonight?

[BLI snowman]

I wouldn't go that far.

 

Surface temps are basically above freezing for the entire event on the GFS near the Sound. Places away from the water still have a chance at some wet stuff, but the trend certainly isn't favorable for anybody to see much accumulation near I-5 with this storm. Crazy shift from a few days ago but that's climo....

 

Monday at 4pm

 

 

10pm

 

 

4am on Tuesday

 

 

10am on Tuesday

 

[Cloud]

Really interested to see how far south this PSCZ sinks.

[jcmcgaffey]

For folks in the Puget Sound this upcoming event is just icing on the cake. If it works out that would be amazing and one of the greats in terms of winter. If it doesn’t and we only warm up from here with no rain still an amazing/historic event. With that said I am excited to see the models the next 18hrs and then see what really happens. This is what it’s all about.

[Jesse]

Been a while since we were looking north at the 540 thickness line...

I hear aspercreme can work wonders.

[TT-SEA]

  Hey now.

 

All I've done is offer realistic analysis. Hopefully that is still welcome here.

 

So have I.  

 

Ridiculous.    

[runninthruda206]

GFS has steadily been trending north with the low on Wednesday. Just need some more phasing and this could truly be a regional event.

 

#alllowstrendnorth

what does phasing mean in this situation?

[Deweydog]

I hear aspercreme can work wonders.

Sorry about the raising kids in your 50’s comment, okay. I was just doing the math...

[runninthruda206]

Really interested to see how far south this PSCZ sinks.

PLEASE OVER UDIST!

[epiceast]

what does phasing mean in this situation?

In this context I think it's phasing of the two fronts to allow isothermal cooling(no wind), which can drive the snow levels down by about 1000' in southern sector of the low, or even more feet in extreme cases. There was a march event that hit Oregon Coast(and Willamette valley) in early '10s a few years back, which had such a setup.

[Cloud]

PLEASE OVER UDIST!

N. Seattle appears to be best bet, but in the past I’ve seen some sinks to DT Seattle and stalls for hours.

[jcmcgaffey]

Loos likenit is going to set up around Edmonds just north of here. So close.

[TT-SEA]

In this context I think it's phasing of the two fronts to allow isothermal cooling(no wind), which can drive the snow levels down by about 1000' in southern sector of the low, or even more feet in extreme cases. There was a march event that hit Oregon Coast(and Willamette valley) in early '10s a few years back, which had such a setup.

 

 

Phasing causes absolute model chaos... we have been seeing this for the last 4 or 5 days since it became evident that it was going to happen.     

[Jbolin]

Very light drizzle here right now 

[wxmet]

what does phasing mean in this situation?

 

 

Phasing of different streams of the jet. In this context, it's the phasing or coming together of the polar and subtropical jet streams. The streams are fully phased when the trough axes of both jet streams align forming a full latitude trough.

[Jbolin]

Where is “here”

W.Sea

[BLI snowman]

So have I.  

 

Ridiculous.    

 

Other than your downtown Weather Channel freakout the other night, I think you've been doing pretty good. Can't please everyone.

[epiceast]

Phasing causes absolute model chaos... we have been seeing this for the last 4 or 5 days since it became evident that it was going to happen.     

I should have looked at 500mb maps before typing that out didn't realize we were going to have two different streams actually phase(I am trying to avoid looking at 500mb maps, don't want to think about how much longer it will be extremely cold here).

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the WRF... the SW winds this evening transition fairly quickly to offshore flow ahead of next system.  

 

Snow arrives in the Seattle area between 1-4 p.m and the Hood Canal is going to be getting pounded my mid-afternoon.

[BLI snowman]

Madrona (E Capitol Hill) at 7:45

 

 

 

Nice! 1996 might have been the last time it was that deep in the middle of the city.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Troutdale just gusted to 40 mph.

[MossMan]

Believe I am approaching 4” of new snow.