February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Let’s have some good old fashioned Port Townsend building crushing again!

Or better yet some more Olympia building failures again!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

#prayers4PDX

I'll be doing a whole lot of that tonight.

[Deweydog]

Hope is certainly not gone for PDX.

Nice!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just saw this from the NWS Pendleton. Here's what their thinking as of right now.

 

National Weather Service Pendleton OR

235 PM PST Thu Feb 21 2019

 

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...The models are in good agreement with a mostly zonal flow undercutting a blocking high in AL. The jet stream will be around the WA/OR border through at least Tuesday. A surface front will remain stalled over OR, keeping a prolonged period of snow near the frontal boundary (mainly over the southern half of the CWA). Any waves moving along the front will enhance the snow near it. While there is high confidence in the broad pattern, I have very low confidence in timing of any waves along the front which will divide the cold air north in Washington and warmer air from central Oregon southward and shift the front north or south. Since the weather (particularly pops and snow levels) is very dependent on the location of the frontal boundary, I kept likely pops in OR south of the Columbia Basin and chance/slight chance in WA through Tuesday. If the front shifts north into the Lower Columbia Basin cold air trapped at the surface may produce freezing rain in addition to rain and snow. Wednesday and Thursday ridging will build into WA and OR. The ECMWF develops the ridge near ID while the GFS builds a ridge offshore Wednesday and shifts it east Thursday. Either way drier air will move into the CWA. Coonfield

[TacomaWaWx]

Nws Seattle discussion is not calling for anything like snow besides possible mix events a few times and overall says rain and warmer temps here in Seattle metro, wonder what their thoughts are on snow potential

[GHweatherChris]

Nws Seattle discussion is not calling for anything like snow besides possible mix events a few times and overall says rain and warmer temps here in Seattle metro, wonder what their thoughts are on snow potential

Low

[seattleweatherguy]

Nws Seattle discussion is not calling for anything like snow besides possible mix events a few times and overall says rain and warmer temps here in Seattle metro, wonder what their thoughts are on snow potential

They are always conservative

[Requiem]

Nws Seattle discussion is not calling for anything like snow besides possible mix events a few times and overall says rain and warmer temps here in Seattle metro, wonder what their thoughts are on snow potential

NWS PDX isn’t saying too much either.

[TacomaWaWx]

Haha yes nws Seattle always goes conservative pretty much every time will see what they say closer to the event

[Perturbed Member]

NWS PDX isn’t saying too much either.

Funny that PDX NWS says that if the 12z Euro verified we would be warm and sunny later in the week, ignores the 17 inches of snow lol. 

 

The general trend

is for the active weather pattern to continue through much of next

week, with a threat of low elevation snow, generally north of Salem,

early next week. As of now, suspect that we will probably see a mix

of rain and snow at the lowest elevations, but would not be

surprised if areas below 1000 ft wake up to snow Monday morning.

Confidence in the forecast is even lower as we go through the week,

but if today`s 12Z ECMWF run verifies we could see the return of

warmer and sunnier weather towards the middle of next week.

[Requiem]

Funny that PDX NWS says that if the 12z Euro verified we would be warm and sunny later in the week, ignores the 17 inches of snow lol.

 

The general trend

is for the active weather pattern to continue through much of next

week, with a threat of low elevation snow, generally north of Salem,

early next week. As of now, suspect that we will probably see a mix

of rain and snow at the lowest elevations, but would not be

surprised if areas below 1000 ft wake up to snow Monday morning.

Confidence in the forecast is even lower as we go through the week,

but if today`s 12Z ECMWF run verifies we could see the return of

warmer and sunnier weather towards the middle of next week.

Perhaps they’re burned out?

[epiceast]

Trendingsideways.

00z Runs will be CRITICAL!

[Perturbed Member]

Perhaps they’re burned out?

 

They won't speak much until the models settle on a solution and we are within 48 hrs I think. 

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah, it will be good but hopefully the low tracks south of PDX as it heads inland and we don't get the dreaded Storm King type track.

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/Jan1880EventsMapWAOR.jpg

 

No damage in Forest Grove, huh.

 

See, I really am right about Washington County! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

There is definitely going to be a pattern change as we head into March. However, I do not see a major flip to a warm dry regime or anything like that. Probably just normal March variability.

My guess is it stays kool overall.

[Jesse]

Salem is almost certainly going to hit 50 today and PDX very well could. 49 and 48 on the 3pm readings. Those late February sun angles with some down sloping should do the trick.

Looks like PDX hit 49. I haven’t checked SLE yet but I’m guessing they made it to 60.

[MossMan]

Yeah it’s kind of funny that after a day of reading the forum and getting pumped for the northerly trend in the models and Storm King stats, etc...And then you read the NWS AFD...

 

Yeah.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jesus can you imagine 54 inches in tacoma. Remarkable. Makes you wonder what has been the biggest storm in the last 500 years.

[Deweydog]

Jesus can you imagine 54 inches in tacoma. Remarkable. Makes you wonder what has been the biggest storm in the last 500 years.

1-26-1609.

 

8-9!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah it’s kind of funny that after a day of reading the forum and getting pumped for the northerly trend in the models and Storm King stats, etc...And then you read the NWS AFD...

Yeah.

It's because it just happened and the odds are against us. But it could happen again and that would be crazy.

[Jesse]

1-26-1609.

 

8-9!!!

1619

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1-26-1609.

8-9!!!

8-16-1977.

[Jesse]

8-16-1977.

RIP Elvis.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The first run of the night has begun. The NAM to lead things off.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Portland afd is a cut and paste machine. We need to speak up and give them an overhaul.

[snow_wizard]

The models really like the idea of snow for the Central Puget Sound Sunday morning.  Looks like the best precip rate will be at the perfect time of day.  I can't shake the feeling the NWS is a notch too warm for Saturday night through Sunday night.  They don't seem to be taking into account the air mass will have a continental flavor.  That in combo with decently low 850s just makes their forecast seem a bit too mild.

 

On the Monday system....the ECMWF actually brings light snow to MBY now.

[snow_wizard]

Hmmmm....the 18z GFS and some ensemble members are suggesting a possible brief cold relapse after a quick warm up around Wednesday.  I've seen things like that in  the records from past cold waves.  They are usually a quick downward spike back to cold and fairly brief.  An interesting possibility.  

[seattleweatherguy]

The models really like the idea of snow for the Central Puget Sound Sunday morning. Looks like the best precip rate will be at the perfect time of day. I can't shake the feeling the NWS is a notch too warm for Saturday night through Sunday night. They don't seem to be taking into account the air mass will have a continental flavor. That in combo with decently low 850s just makes their forecast seem a bit too mild.

 

On the Monday system....the ECMWF actually brings light snow to MBY now.

I hope monday/tues system keeps moving north.

[Front Ranger]

From the record-breaking snow in the PNW, to record cold all over the West, Plains, and Midwest, to the amazing snowstorm hitting the Southwest right now, the past few weeks have to go down as one of the most incredible periods for winter weather in the CONUS in many years. 

[Requiem]

I hope monday/tues system keeps moving north.

Yep. Let’s completely leave Portland out of things again, that would be just so fun. Adding on to your measly little 15 inch totals.

[Jesse]

Too bad clouds look to be increasing overnight. Would be a great setup for lows well into the 20s with calm winds and low dew points following a relatively chilly day.

 

47/29 here with morning fog and afternoon sun/decorative cumulus. Back down to 40 now, DP 24.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yep. Let’s completely leave Portland out of things again, that would be just so fun. Adding on to your measly little 15 inch totals.

So he is not allowed to hope for more?

[Requiem]

So he is not allowed to hope for more?

He is. He’s probably going to get it.

[GHweatherChris]

Yep. Let’s completely leave Portland out of things again, that would be just so fun. Adding on to your measly little 15 inch totals.

Sounds great!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm on the Portland camp. I want them to score but it's also ok for others to hope they get snow up north as well. I really just want wall to wall 3 feet on the whole f.ckin west coast.

[TacomaWaWx]

I hope that Puget Sound can score Saturday night-Sunday morning, will be interesting to see how far the precipitation from the Monday system makes it north into the Seattle area, people in the south sound stand a better chance than the north sound according to the runs, hopefully it’ll stay cold enough for the Portlanders

[Requiem]

I'm on the Portland camp. I want them to score but it's also ok for others to hope they get snow up north as well. I really just want wall to wall 3 feet on the whole f.ckin west coast.

Can’t we just get another full West Coast snowstorm? I want every single person to score, Vancouver to Redding.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

He is. He’s probably going to get it.

Prettty sure you will 2.

[Deweydog]

Pretty sunset!

 

And it happened a lot later than it did a couple months ago. Hmmmm...