Niko Posted July 11, 2019 Report Share Posted July 11, 2019 See the tropical thread. This is going to be a water maker. Louisiana will be flooded. After the Mississippi delivered all that rain to the Gulf recently, this will not be welcomed. NOLA and westerm Miss. will be hurt as the rain will not stop as it moves NNE.Just a dreadful year for the Mississippi Valley.All of this moisture (remnants of what will be left of this system)has eyes for the Gl's Region down the road Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted July 11, 2019 Report Share Posted July 11, 2019 The levy will overflow. It is 1/2" from the 17' maximum right now. They are strong but just so high.The record is 21' with Katrina. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 11, 2019 Report Share Posted July 11, 2019 A hurricane might be brewing in the GOM by tomorrow. Heads up on that y'all.I had a tiny ray of hope yesterday that it MIGHT bring us some rainfall here next week, but it’s looking less likely today. Also appears less likely than it had for any t. storm chances this wk.end in my neck of the woods with chances remaining over northern Iowa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 Looking at the forecast for the weekend into next week, it looks like summer is about to overstay its welcome 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 My first week in Toledo next week looks to be a brutal one. Thankfully forecasted highs have been lowered, but still a lateral move from here to there. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 I'm up early today working European hours on some business I have going on across the "pond". I had the windows open all night and the house is nice and cool. Needless to say, it's a very refreshing air mass...Current Obs: 61F/55F...going to enjoy this day as much as possible bc the heat and humidity are here to stay through next week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 Holy smokes, last nights 00z Euro brings the "Summer Sizzle" into the majority of the heartland with a string of days with widespread 95-100F+ temps! Some places in NE/KS/MO may reach several days in the 100-105F+...Yikes! That's not going to be good for the farmers. From floods in the Spring, late planting, now a potential long duration heat wave with lack of any precip for days??? Wow. We've just had about every single outcome you could possibly ask mother nature to throw. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 I thought this might be close. NWS Hastings says my area has had the wettest year ever through July 12th. https://twitter.com/ntvstimreith/status/1149642066768433152?s=21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 So much for the expected cool, wet summer. We have a shot at the longest stretch of 90+ in 25 years. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 So much for the expected cool, wet summer. We have a shot at the longest stretch of 90+ in 25 years.Predicting weather is kind of similar to sports handicapping. You can use all the available stats, data, and prior experience to make the most logical decision, but in the end there are no “locks” or absolute certainties. You just do your best and try to come out ahead in the long run. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 When it was super cool earlier this summer / later spring, I had this bad feeling it would get really warm once summer "showed up." It appears my biggest fears are being realized. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 So much for the expected cool, wet summer. We have a shot at the longest stretch of 90+ in 25 years.Next week looks brutal, 100’s potentially in the forecast for Eastern Nebraska from Thursday through next weekend. Our AC’s are going to be putting in some OT next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 Had a nice clear and cool night last night. The low here at my house was 54 while the official low at the airport was 57. So far this July the mean temperature is 76.2 and that is a departure of +3.8 the warmest so far is 91 and the coolest so far is 57. So far there has not been a day when the high did not reach at least 80. With that mean of 76.2 Grand Rapids at this time is on track for a top ten warmest July’s on record we will see how the next 20 days of this month play out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted July 12, 2019 Report Share Posted July 12, 2019 I know this is out of left field, but as Tom has been discussing the Pacific Ocean a good deal recently, I thought this might lend some insight as to how things are being affected there. The Pacific and the nation are both dealing with some unusual circumstances. https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2019/07/11/maui-brush-fire-closes-down-kuihelani-highway-humane-society-evacuates/ Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 Predicting weather is kind of similar to sports handicapping. You can use all the available stats, data, and prior experience to make the most logical decision, but in the end there are no “locks” or absolute certainties. You just do your best and try to come out ahead in the long run.Amen....Agree 100%. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 A nice cluster of storms now in nw. Iowa moved all the way from ne. Co. last evening and may be what areas of eastern Iowa along and n. of Hwy. 30, or n. of I-80 see later today? Wish it would be moving ese. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 Texas and Oklahoma are looking at a string of mid and high nineties. We're in the summer stretch. Hot, humid Unless a tropical depression comes at us, or a cold front, we'll be where we are for a while. Zzzzz. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 Excessive heat watch for the MSP 7 county metro for Sunday and Monday. Max HI up to 105. Bad time for the lake to be closed due to high levels of E. coli. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 My wife and kids went with some friends to the Omaha Zoo on Friday. She said you could sure see that eastern Nebraska was getting dry. Then you come back to the flooded in parts and ultra lush Central Nebraska. I think we are going to be glad we have had a lot of rain, where there wasn’t damage, as it looks like Mother Nature is turning off the faucet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 So much for the expected cool, wet summer. We have a shot at the longest stretch of 90+ in 25 years. Never discount the Tropical stuff. When it decides to flex it's muscle any thoughts of cold will be on hold. At least a tad bit drier air mass came in this evening making my dusk bicycle ride around town reasonably comfortable. Been a while since I did one of those 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 All of this moisture (remnants of what will be left of this system)has eyes for the Gl's Region down the road My confidence is not high on that. Like last year's system (before Michael) that was supposed to smack the Mitt, then stayed south. The ones that make it here traditionally are late Sept thru October when there's already some autumnal CF's coming down from Canada to interact with. I've already mentally prepared for a "mini-drought" like we've had during May and/or June the past couple of years. This one just waited another 4-6 wks. Those with pools, boats, and lake-front cottages will be thrilled. Others of us nasso much, lol 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 My wife and kids went with some friends to the Omaha Zoo on Friday. She said you could sure see that eastern Nebraska was getting dry. Then you come back to the flooded in parts and ultra lush Central Nebraska. I think we are going to be glad we have had a lot of rain, where there wasn’t damage, as it looks like Mother Nature is turning off the faucet.Definitely browning up here. It has been warm and very humid but not on the crazy side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 I started this topic for those who have interest in global stochastic events that are currently transpiring and will likely continue to grow in numbers as I believe we have entered a long period of activity. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2070-rise-in-stochastic-events/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 IMO, the GEFS are leading the way and trending towards a much more comfortable pattern starting late this week into the last full week of July. Before then, we will certainly Fry across the heartland and remain quite Dry. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 IMO, the GEFS are leading the way and trending towards a much more comfortable pattern starting late this week into the last full week of July. Before then, we will certainly Fry across the heartland and remain quite Dry. I sure hope so Tom, our 7 day forecast is showing mid to upper 90’s with basically no rain chances from here on out. I don’t usually mind some hot summer weather, but long stretches of hot, humid, and bone dry weather are not fun. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 My confidence is not high on that. Like last year's system (before Michael) that was supposed to smack the Mitt, then stayed south. The ones that make it here traditionally are late Sept thru October when there's already some autumnal CF's coming down from Canada to interact with. I've already mentally prepared for a "mini-drought" like we've had during May and/or June the past couple of years. This one just waited another 4-6 wks. Those with pools, boats, and lake-front cottages will be thrilled. Others of us nasso much, lolNow, it looks like instead of getting some really hvy downpours and some wind, just a few t'stms are forecasted presently, locally severe for Wednesday and that should be about it. Although, Barry will indeed bring in some really humid air into our region, which could produce some severe weather. Dews could approach 80 by midweek. UGH! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 I had a tiny ray of hope yesterday that it MIGHT bring us some rainfall here next week, but it’s looking less likely today. Also appears less likely than it had for any t. storm chances this wk.end in my neck of the woods with chances remaining over northern Iowa.Same here as well. Air will get very humid though by midweek, thanks to Barry! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 Absolutely gorgeous day outside today folks w current readings in the 70s, dew is in the 50s, RH is at 52% and not a cloud to be found. Deep blue skies!!! Just splendid for this time of the year, considering, we are almost in the heart of Summa. Too bad, a heatwave is coming. Next week will be brutal. Barry will interfere as well, not so much w rainfall, but bringing very uncomfortable air into the region. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 I sure hope so Tom, our 7 day forecast is showing mid to upper 90’s with basically no rain chances from here on out. I don’t usually mind some hot summer weather, but long stretches of hot, humid, and bone dry weather are not fun.The plains might take a bit longer to get out of this stagnant pattern as the anticyclone retrogrades West very slowly. You look to be riding the periphery early on later next week (Day 7-8) before the trough penetrates farther south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 Today is the 20th day in a row of temperatures of 80 or better and here in Grand Rapids we have only had 3 thunderstorms since May 25th, There were 4 in May and 3 in April and that is is for the year so far. We did not have very many last year either here in GR we are in a thunderstorm drought for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 Not getting too much rain at my house, but my parents house (about 4 miles to the SE) has gotten 1.09” in like 20 minutes. Heavy rain just parked over that area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 And now it’s pouring here too.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 Noticed radar was looking decent over by your area E.D. Should be coming down good with all the moisture in the air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 14, 2019 Report Share Posted July 14, 2019 Picked up 0.59” of rain here. My parents rain gauge picked up 3.17”, and I don’t doubt that at all. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted July 15, 2019 Report Share Posted July 15, 2019 Interesting day with lots of dark cloud cover cycling over us from Barry. It did that for much of the day till around 5:30. Tropical storms are curious things at a distance. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted July 15, 2019 Report Share Posted July 15, 2019 Interesting day with lots of dark cloud cover cycling over us from Barry. It did that for much of the day till around 5:30. Tropical storms are curious things at a distance.Be through one hurricane when we lived in DC, Floyd. Definitely interesting to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2019 Wow, impressive and rare July snow in the motherland of Poland...some believe this may have been contributed to the volcanic ash from the volcano in eastern Russia that spewed heavy/dense ash 55,000ft high in the atmosphere a number of weeks ago which has infiltrated the high latitudes and cooled temps up north. https://www.eska.pl/news/na-kasprowym-wierchu-snieg-a-w-zabarze-rekord-zimna-tego-nikt-sie-nie-spodziewal-aa-CKLg-f1ty-sks3.html 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2019 My instincts may have been on the right track, whereby the GEFS were leading the way on a frontal system hitting later this weekend across the northern half of the Sub and transitioning out of this warm spell quicker than the EURO/EPS were suggesting. I'm seeing a Severe Wx set up and its favoring the MW/Upper MW region later this weekend as a rather unusually strong Summer system tracks out of the Rockies into region over the weekend. Both the ICON/GFS are showing this set up and it raises my eye brows and something to monitor over the coming days. You'd think that nature will showcase some atmospheric fireworks as a natural "fight" between blazing heat to the south and a triggering CF swings in from the north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted July 15, 2019 Report Share Posted July 15, 2019 My instincts may have been on the right track, whereby the GEFS were leading the way on a frontal system hitting later this weekend across the northern half of the Sub and transitioning out of this warm spell quicker than the EURO/EPS were suggesting. I'm seeing a Severe Wx set up and its favoring the MW/Upper MW region later this weekend as a rather unusually strong Summer system tracks out of the Rockies into region over the weekend. Both the ICON/GFS are showing this set up and it raises my eye brows and something to monitor over the coming days. You'd think that nature will showcase some atmospheric fireworks as a natural "fight" between blazing heat to the south and a triggering trough swings in from the north. Tom, when can we expect a relief from the heat/dry weather in Iowa? I don't mind the heat so much, but things are really starting to get dry around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.