High Desert Mat? Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 The Dome is strong with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Mat is drinking and wants to be a jerk. I am here to talk weather. Anyone going to check out the northern lights? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Fascinating. It sounds like the link to amplification is mostly a correlation that people have noticed, without a mechanism yet identified. cosmic ray flux in the atmosphere is also modulated by variations in earths magnetic field, so if that's important for clouds (which seems unlikely based on the much higher abundances of cloud particles vs. cosmic ray particles) then it would be more complicated than a simple correspondence to solar.The big question is what will happen if solar activity stays very low for an extended period of time, like the Little Ice Age. There is plenty of research that indicates we are due to see another extended minimum...and some very smart people believe that would have some very significant effects on our climate - and possibly our civilization, as it has in the past. The other big question is if things are different this time because of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Many believe that will prevent another Little Ice Age, but it's definitely not settled science. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Oh ffs. Go to hell.Phil. For once in your life, just butt out. Ok? I am trying to talk weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 The big question is what will happen if solar activity stays very low for an extended period of time, like the Little Ice Age. There is plenty of research that indicates we are due to see another extended minimum...and some very smart people believe that would have some very significant effects on our climate - and possibly our civilization, as it has in the past. The other big question is if things are different this time because of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Many believe that will prevent another Little Ice Age, but it's definitely not settled science.I am a strong believer that low solar far supercedes any CO2 increases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Cheerio everyone! Nice departures today. PDX -6SLE -5EUG -3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Nice night! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Already 33 here. Teens are easily met tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 enjoying the posts in solar. Post any articles if you've got em! Found one recent study showing no connection between solar and the NAO https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.html Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Uh, strange day on the forum. Anyways, I agree with SnowWiz, advisory-level winds seem feasible in certain areas— maybe PDX (gusts 35-45 seem likely) and parts of the Sound. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 enjoying the posts in solar. Post any articles if you've got em! Found one recent study showing no connection between solar and the NAO https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.htmlThat is an isolated study. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Fyi. It is pretty clear tonight. Get away from the city and we could see some northern lights. Here in Culver could be good. I may partake. Nice solar storm? Sorry, I've not been paying attention. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 enjoying the posts in solar. Post any articles if you've got em! Found one recent study showing no connection between solar and the NAO https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.htmlWe shall see. They are using reconstructions prior to 1960 (they don't dispute the correlation since then) and the reliability of reconstructions varies. There are always studies showing conflicting results. One study on a topic is never definitive, that's for sure. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Show of hands, besides the dome, who drank yesterday at 730am before the weather meeting and continued until dusk? Just curious, cause I had to drive his drunk a** without a thank you or gas money. Weird I know but, 33 in Redmond now and done in with dome drunk ness forever. Gets old after 20 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 enjoying the posts in solar. Post any articles if you've got em! Found one recent study showing no connection between solar and the NAO https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.htmlWow, I’m shocked that paper even got published. There was never any correlation between sunspots/irradiance and the NAO to begin with. The NAO correlation relates to the derivative of the AP index/geomagnetic activity across solar minimum transits. There are additional longer term correlations governed by changes in the IPWP slosh as a function of multidecadal solar forcing, but that can vary in how it’s communicated through the system. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 I’m shocked that paper even got published. There was never any correlation between sunspots/irradiance and the NAO to begin with. The correlation is between the derivative of the AP index across solar minimum transits and the NAO. There are longer term correlations governed by changes in the IPWP slosh as a function of multidecadal solar forcing, but that can vary in how it’s communicated.Eh, the whole "it's the AP index, not the spots" thing is kind of semantics. They both drop during periods of low solar activity, both symptoms of the same general thing. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 PDO!!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Sex!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Eh, the whole "it's the AP index, not the spots" thing is kind of semantics. They both drop during periods of low solar activity, both symptoms of the same general thing.No, they don’t. See the 1960s, for example. Radiation is not particle precipitation. The physical effects of irradiance on the system are completely different than the effects of particle bombardment..both in terms of how they’re dynamically communicated and the timescale through which this occurs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Mat is drinking and wants to be a jerk. I am here to talk weather. Anyone going to check out the northern lights? It appears the solar wind has died down so they probably won't be seen this far south. We're supposed to get another round around Halloween. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Mat is drinking and wants to be a jerk. I am here to talk weather. Anyone going to check out the northern lights?You have anger issues Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Dropping like a rock here tonight. Already down to 43 at 7pm. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Nice day! After the game and painting the dining room I went out and did some mowing/leaf cleanup. Perfection! Currently 38 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Show of hands, besides the dome, who drank yesterday at 730am before the weather meeting and continued until dusk? Just curious, cause I had to drive his drunk a** without a thank you or gas money. Weird I know but, 33 in Redmond now and done in with dome drunk ness forever. Gets old after 20 years.Wait, seriously? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 No, they don’t. See the 1960s, for example. Radiation is not particle precipitation. The physical effects of irradiance on the system are completely different than the effects of particle bombardment..both in terms of how they’re dynamically communicated and the timescale through which this occurs. The correlation between the two is quite strong. Timing of onset, etc, aside. Do you not agree that they are both closely tied to solar cycles? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 The correlation between the two is quite strong. Timing of onset, etc, aside. Do you not agree that they are both closely tied to solar cycles?The correlation is NOT always strong. It can be strong, or can be inverted, like the 1970s. The AP index often lags the sunspot/TSI cycle by a few years and can be completely out of phase when the Sun’s magnetic field fluctuates between solar cycles. http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/AreaAp.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 The correlation is not always strong. See the 1970s, 1950s, and 1940s. http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/AreaAp.pngNot always directly, but it's definitely a strong correlation overall. And you didn't answer my question. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Uh, strange day on the forum. Anyways, I agree with SnowWiz, advisory-level winds seem feasible in certain areas— maybe PDX (gusts 35-45 seem likely) and parts of the Sound.Hawks game was our usual bittching about the team and they get the W vs a shitty team. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Not always directly, but it's definitely a strong correlation overall. And you didn't answer my question.Of course they’re related to solar cycles. I don’t see the point of that question though? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Thanks Tim. The thing that sucks about any project up there is when you have to run into town because you forgot something. If you haul a** it's 3 hr round trip to Omak lol.My projects require a minimum of 3 additional trips to the local hardware store. After my first trip, the clerks know me well enough to ask, "see you later today?" "Yep." 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 55/32currently 45*winds from the north decreasing. 14 mph around 6pm now down to 1 mph 10 minute adv. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Wait, seriously?Yes. 100%. I’m not going to get into more details but just just assume the drunk uncle. X100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Who doesn't love a good family spat on a weather forum? An assaulter vs a drunk. Very entertaining. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Wow! This kind of drama at a weather conference...Can’t wait until the Chris BBQ get together!! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Good Lord! Down to 40 now. This is about 2 hours ahead of last night. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 35 here already. No wind at all. Could be in the lower 20’s by morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Family drama on a weather blog isn't something I thought I'd see today... 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Fred is going to be busy 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 35 here already. No wind at all. Could be in the lower 20’s by morning. Tonight has got overperformance written all over it. The 850s or thicknesses aren't too impressive, but with high amplitude northerly flow good things can happen. I got my earliest sub 30 low on record earlier this month and tonight I could easily do my earliest sub 28. This has been an amazing stretch. Working on one of the coldest Octobers on record. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 39 now. Still dropping a degree every 20 minutes. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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