November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

It's juiced!  Lets hope we get a SE trend.

I think we have a shot at it.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro with a powerhouse storm.

Only 200+ hours to go. Lock it in....

[Tom]

No doubt. I bet Gary no longer thinks it's a much longer cycle this year. Look at these totals+

Ya, I think he’s going to re-evaluate his thoughts. A lot of things are lining up at 500mb that suggests the start of LRC cycle #2. Fun times ahead for those who will be in the storms path. This will be a beast. #WhiteThanksgiving

[bud2380]

Closer look of the Euro at 10:1.  A front end thump in eastern Iowa but then turns to rain or this would be huge over here.  Still hits many areas hard.  Plenty of time to go, but definitely a good trend we are seeing from the Euro. 

 

 

[Clinton]

Ya, I think he’s going to re-evaluate his thoughts. A lot of things are lining up at 500mb that suggests the start of LRC cycle #2. Fun times ahead for those who will be in the storms path. This will be a beast. #WhiteThanksgiving

And remember we will get this pattern again in mid Jan.  Jet will be stronger then as well.

[Stormhunter87]

Any more bets going on??!!

Nah lol except maybe betting I can drive through this storm lol.

[Clinton]

Only 200+ hours to go. Lock it in....

There is good reason to have high confidence in this solution, track could still fluctuate some.

[St Paul Storm]

There is good reason to have high confidence in this solution, track could still fluctuate some.

For sure buddy! Just wish it wasn’t 200 hours out. I’d say almost without a doubt someone is going to have a very white turkey day.

[Clinton]

For sure buddy! Just wish it wasn’t 200 hours out. I’d say almost without a doubt someone is going to have a very white turkey day.

I can't wait either this will be a blast!

[Tom]

For sure buddy! Just wish it wasn’t 200 hours out. I’d say almost without a doubt someone is going to have a very white turkey day.

Storm tracking through the holiday is always fun during this time of year!

[hlcater]

Closer look of the Euro at 10:1.  A front end thump in eastern Iowa but then turns to rain or this would be huge over here.  Still hits many areas hard.  Plenty of time to go, but definitely a good trend we are seeing from the Euro. 

 

 

Issue is that the low occluded and moves over the state instead of continuing off ENE like it would it if were not to occlude. Takeaway is that Euro continues to flash a strong system immediately prior to thanksgiving.

[Niko]

Nah lol except maybe betting I can drive through this storm lol.

Sounds good enough to me...  

 

That would be a tough, challenging drive.

[jaster220]

It's juiced!  Lets hope we get a SE trend.

 

I think we have a shot at it.

 

We better get more cold air and blocking or you/we can forget about that outcome. I'm not seeing any signs of the kind of early cold air that delivered Vet's Day for us further south/east. Not trying to be a buzz-kill here, but I don't see any "trigger" to get cold pushed down far enough our way either. This is the classic "strong SLP goes NW to find it's cold source" set-up. K, back to  &   at snowfall maps..

[Clinton]

We better get more cold air and blocking or you/we can forget about that outcome. I'm not seeing any signs of the kind of early cold air that delivered Vet's Day for us further south/east. Not trying to be a buzz-kill here, but I don't see any "trigger" to get cold pushed down far enough our way either. This is the classic "strong SLP goes NW to find it's cold source" set-up. K, back to  &   at snowfall maps..

It will be close!  I think we will see a cooler trend, stay patient

[Niko]

We better get more cold air and blocking or you/we can forget about that outcome. I'm not seeing any signs of the kind of early cold air that delivered Vet's Day for us further south/east. Not trying to be a buzz-kill here, but I don't see any "trigger" to get cold pushed down far enough our way either. This is the classic "strong SLP goes NW to find it's cold source" set-up. K, back to  &   at snowfall maps..

I don't think that should be an issue and should help force this further SE in movement. We will see, but it does stand that we have a chance w this to become a snowevent for our region and others as well (of course being in the right position of the LP area).

[Niko]

It will be close!  I think we will see a cooler trend, stay patient

I think so also.

[jaster220]

That run is exactly what I needed to see as the blocking slows down the storm and it occludes near the GL’s.

 

Sheesh! Looks like almost a carbon copy of that October system that did all the lakeshore damage here in WMI 

[jaster220]

I don't think that should be an issue and should help force this further SE in movement. We will see, but it does stand that we have a chance w this to become a snowevent for our region and others as well (of course being in the right position of the LP area).

 

Well, I'll defer to Tom since this is really still in his LR wheelhouse. I remember him hitting hard on the idea of blocking delivering cold for the Vet's Day system long before the models sniffed that out. Right now all I see him talking about is a strong SER pushing this to cut hard. Two different set-ups, at least wrt picking his brain via his well guarded posts. There has to be a "reason" why cold(er) air would be pushing further south, and so far he's not been touting such. Just my casual observation. I'm still hoping for the best ofc. 

[jaster220]

Only 200+ hours to go. Lock it in....

 

What could go wrong??

[Clinton]

Well, I'll defer to Tom since this is really still in his LR wheelhouse. I remember him hitting hard on the idea of blocking delivering cold for the Vet's Day system long before the models sniffed that out. Right now all I see him talking about is a strong SER pushing this to cut hard. Two different set-ups, at least wrt picking his brain via his well guarded posts. There has to be a "reason" why cold(er) air would be pushing further south, and so far he's not been touting such. Just my casual observation. I'm still hoping for the best ofc. 

We will also have a -AO on our side for this storm.  Tom has this one, he's been on fire this year.

[jaster220]

Only 200+ hours to go. Lock it in....

 

Ikr, what could go wrong?? 

[St Paul Storm]

What could go wrong??

I’m just gonna grab my popcorn and watch. I love weather and storms. But wishcasting every 200 hour map can turn a hobby into a bad thing. Here’s my call.....everyone from Fargo to Toronto is in play. Ha!

[Tom]

Well, I'll defer to Tom since this is really still in his LR wheelhouse. I remember him hitting hard on the idea of blocking delivering cold for the Vet's Day system long before the models sniffed that out. Right now all I see him talking about is a strong SER pushing this to cut hard. Two different set-ups, at least wrt picking his brain via his well guarded posts. There has to be a "reason" why cold(er) air would be pushing further south, and so far he's not been touting such. Just my casual observation. I'm still hoping for the best ofc. 

While I'd love to see a major snowstorm in our region, my early thoughts on track with this system will keep us on the rain/mix side and maybe some backwash snows as the SLP occludes.  The EPO goes (+) during this period which isn't a good sign for suppression like we saw with the Vet's Day storm.  The Greenland Block is present along with the EC ridge, but that piece to the puzzle allows the storm to slow down and occlude.  I like the central Plains up into IA/MN and parts of WI as the winners with this one right where Flood Watch's were hoisted back on Oct 8th/9th during cycle #1.

[Niko]

Jaster-

 

Play it day by day amigo. We will see how everything unfolds as the days get closer to this event. Remember, the trend has been our friend thus far.

[jaster220]

While I'd love to see a major snowstorm in our region, my early thoughts on track with this system will keep us on the rain/mix side and maybe some backwash snows as the SLP occludes.  The EPO goes (+) during this period which isn't a good sign for suppression like we saw with the Vet's Day storm.  The Greenland Block is present along with the EC ridge, but that piece to the puzzle allows the storm to slow down and occlude.  I like the central Plains up into IA/MN and parts of WI as the winners with this one right where Flood Watch's were hoisted back on Oct 8th/9th during cycle #1.

 

[jaster220]

Jaster-

 

Play it day by day amigo. We will see how everything unfolds as the days get closer to this event. Remember, the trend has been our friend thus far.

 

It is over-all. But there's a portion of the new LRC that hits areas west of us and at this early calendar time-frame, dat spells RAINER!     ('sides, you just got a footer! and so far this is just cyber snowfall in a wx model matrix, lol)

[Niko]

I also like the early December storm. That one looks to have a bit more cold air w it. Still ways out, but something to look forward too.

[Niko]

It is over-all. But there's a portion of the new LRC that hits areas west of us and at this early calendar time-frame, dat spells RAINER!     ('sides, you just got a footer! and so far this is just cyber snowfall in a wx model matrix, lol)

 

Yes sir....still cannot believe it.

[Niko]

 

Latest thinking from TWC.

[Beltrami Island]

I’m just gonna grab my popcorn and watch. I love weather and storms. But wishcasting every 200 hour map can turn a hobby into a bad thing. Here’s my call.....everyone from Fargo to Toronto is in play. Ha!

Hey don't leave out Bismark....only half joking with 200+ hours to go.

[Andie]

[jaster220]

73* Sunny.

 

48F and Sunny....break out the sunscreen! 

 

Snow cover can tolerate a few days of "normal" high temps during January, but during mid-November it's very hostile. Looks like Tom will get his wish for a melt-off to clean up the autumn leafs, etc. It will be interesting to see if any plow piles can survive this 5 to 10 day stretch of average temps combined with a few mild rains?

[Stormhunter87]

Cpc already showing the snow as well. Hmmm

[Hawkeye]

First Omaha, now Des Moines.... the DMX radar will be out of service for two weeks, beginning December 2nd.  That will suck if there are any nice snow events.

[OKwx2k4]

Look to go above avg to much above average temps over the next 84 hours almost exactly. Chances of rain in the last part (Thursday, Friday) and some wind.

 

Pretty big swing from one week ago. Will give everyone a break to finish winter preparation/holiday preparation before the pattern reloads. I'm going to enjoy a week of cheap heat before the hammer of winter drops again for the first of many returns before March.

 

A 12° lo and 28° hi day will get your attention no matter what season you're in down here. Been very cool to see all the records fall and see all of everyone's shares on those plus all the excitement that comes with the fact that it's only November. Awesome stuff so far.

[GDR]

Man storm train On the GFS but unfortunately it’s mostly rain

[Iowawx]

I am actually hoping we don't get anymore snow until December. We are quite behind for November rainfall. 

[clintbeed1993]

Okay, you guys need to let Nebraska have this one. We've been on the sidelines this last month. It's ridiculous for storms to be this far Southeast this early. This thing has to trend Northwest right? RIGHT? No way Kansas and Missouri get dumped on again before I've seen more than 1 inch

[Clinton]

Okay, you guys need to let Nebraska have this one. We've been on the sidelines this last month. It's ridiculous for storms to be this far Southeast this early. This thing has to trend Northwest right? RIGHT? No way Kansas and Missouri get dumped on again before I've seen more than 1 inch <_>

Well.......

[Stacsh]

Awful run of the GFS