TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Your own little banana-snowbelt. Nah... its mild all over the area up here. More so out here yesterday with cloudy start to the day. Even OLM was +5 today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Must have been an epic GFS run!everyone is just speechless 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 00z GEFS. A glimmer of hope. Day 9-16 500mb Height Anomaly shows a retrogression signal. Positive anomaly shifts west from 130 W to 155-150 W. Not ideal, but it could be really good with amplification. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Ensembles are a snoozer as well. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 I have met most of you at one time or another. You just didn't know it was me.Have we met? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Nah... its mild all over the area up here. More so out here yesterday with cloudy start to the day. Even OLM was +5 today. Salem ran a -7 departure today. Love inversions. 48/32 up here today and currently 42. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 I feel like the ensembles are a little better. Probably won't see great improvement until Christmas is in view. Remember we are playing the long game. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Currently 50 degrees and cloudy. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 47/28 day here. Morning fog then increasing clouds throughout the day. Even had a brief sprinkle earlier this evening. Although now its partly cloudy again and down to 41. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 I feel like the ensembles are a little better. Probably won't see great improvement until Christmas is in view. Remember we are playing the long game. Unfortunately I think it will be the 12+ month-long game. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 i am willing to meet anyone any time we can talk about snow monsters and cold things, like beerNeed the meeting near bothell can’t drive good. I drive like a deer in headlights Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 I think we should all meet in an attic watching old school home movies, Clark W Griswold style!! Dewey has the fancy hats!! It also was very wintery in that movie!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 00z EURO rainfall and snowfall through the next 5 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 I think we should all meet in an attic watching old school home movies, Clark W Griswold style!! Dewey has the fancy hats!! It also was very wintery in that movie!!I have VHS tapes of news coverage from the January, November, and December 1996 big events that we could watch in the attic together! The good old days where we had actual weather events happen! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 00z ECMWF sort of tries to spark some interest or hope. Sort of. Kind of. Almost? Better luck tomorrow Day 7-10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Bob Ross would draw in a happy little retrogression and amplification by hour 312. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 36F in Springfield but below freezing at the airport. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 I have VHS tapes of news coverage from the January, November, and December 1996 big events that we could watch in the attic together! The good old days where we had actual weather events happen!Don’t you have several hundred photos from last February and March. Your drainage project would have been needed in 1996. Very wet year. Compared to this year, We are only at a little more than 50% of what fell during 1996 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Don’t you have several hundred photos from last February and March. Your drainage project would have been needed in 1996. Very wet year. Compared to this year, We are only at a little more than 50% of what fell during 1996Wettest year on record down here. Battle Ground finished with 77.82", compared to 34.53" this year so far. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Unfortunately I think it will be the 12+ month-long game.Nah, I think you’ll be fine. But if misery loves company, then you’ll feel better knowing the DC snow hole has returned. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 257 spotless days so far in 2019. 2009 had 260.2008 had 268. Good chance 2019 tops both of those. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Another way to look at ENSO/tropical forcing in 2019/20. Beneath the series of OKWs and other forms of intraseasonal variability, the background state has been largely unchanged from last year at this time. The Pacific component has yielded a bit to the IO component, but it’s really the same state: 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Put another way: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 34F and damp this morning. Got down to 32F back at 1:30AM or so. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Don’t you have several hundred photos from last February and March. Your drainage project would have been needed in 1996. Very wet year. Compared to this year, We are only at a little more than 50% of what fell during 1996Between the heavy snow melt and heavy rains right around New Years 96/97 the basement at our family lake house had several inches of water in it and our dock was completely underwater. Never seen anything like it and haven’t since. And yeah I have just a couple...hundred...pictures from Feb/March 2019...I look at those often...Those were the days! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Currently raining and 46 degrees. .11” so far on the day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 One interesting thing is that Modoki El Ninos have typically been very dry for CA, while this one was been quite wet so far. Of course, that's based off of events that qualified as actual El Ninos. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Put another way: So if we're trying to rewrite the rules on what does and doesn't qualify as an El NIno, La Nina, etc now, wouldn't that mean we would have to go back and reanalyze the whole historical record so we are making apples to apples comparisons with past analog years? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Low of 36 overnight. 39 currently with a beautiful sunrise a bit ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Good to see Salem and Eugene hit freezing again. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Alright, lets play a game since the models aren't really doing anything fun right now. What would be your ideal climate? Do you want a lot of rain and snow? Hot summers? I think I'd really like living in Flagstaff. Summers are relatively mild and winter high temps still average in the 40's. But they get enough rain and lots of snow. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 I think Montana, Idaho or Colorado would be perfect for me. Nice, somewhat active, not too hot summers and variable, snowy winters! My perfect world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 42F this morning. Picked up 0.04” with that front overnight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 I didn’t hate the 06z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Alright, lets play a game since the models aren't really doing anything fun right now. What would be your ideal climate? Do you want a lot of rain and snow? Hot summers? I think I'd really like living in Flagstaff. Summers are relatively mild and winter high temps still average in the 40's. But they get enough rain and lots of snow. Snow, Thunderstorms and Windstorms will give me eyes like Clark Griswold putting up Christmas lights and life around me disappears! Any active weather pattern also feeds my addiction Record setting runs of any kind get me excited including sunny hot days as well as a low solar spotless sun (low sodium).Of course the trophy on the mantle would be a very active Arctic front( snow blowing sideways, temperature plunges in minutes, electricity flashing on and off, trees out of control swaying in the wind and flash freeze! Oh dear I need to go sit down.....whooweee PNW anywhere is my home and preferred choice to live out my days on this planet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 And after all that I have to report 43* cloudy .01 in the bucket edit: reality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 So if we're trying to rewrite the rules on what does and doesn't qualify as an El NIno, La Nina, etc now, wouldn't that mean we would have to go back and reanalyze the whole historical record so we are making apples to apples comparisons with past analog years?Great question. And the whole reason why anyone cares about SST anomalies in the ENSO region is because of how it affects the actual weather. And apparently we are seeing it still affect the weather even though technically we are "neutral". I know Ventrice has tweeted about this a lot. I wonder if there is a way to quantify when the atmosphere is in an El Nino or La Nina state. It is easy to measure SST anomalies, we can see those numbers, and it would be helpful if they had something similar for the atmosphere, and a way to predict when the atmosphere would change states from Nino to neutral, etc. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 Great question. And the whole reason why anyone cares about SST anomalies in the ENSO region is because of how it affects the actual weather. And apparently we are seeing it still affect the weather even though technically we are "neutral". I know Ventrice has tweeted about this a lot. I wonder if there is a way to quantify when the atmosphere is in an El Nino or La Nina state. It is easy to measure SST anomalies, we can see those numbers, and it would be helpful if they had something similar for the atmosphere, and a way to predict when the atmosphere would change states from Nino to neutral, etc.MEI and SOI help with this. Both have been fairly similar to last fall so far, though MEI has been a bit lower (less Nino) and SOI a bit lower (more Nino). I do agree with Phil that the overall ENSO differences between last year and this year are mostly negligible, and where the SSTA anomalies are at is more important. But either way it's a pretty weak ENSO state, so other factors will ultimately probably matter more. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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