January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

Legit pound town snow. Won’t last too much longer but it’s adding up. Visibility less than 1 mi.

[Niko]

The Wed wave looking stronger, which is a good sign for getting a colder air mass to set-up shop for the Thur/Fri system. Trends are our friend 

I agree, the stronger the wed storm, the colder it gets here for our weekend storm.

[Niko]

Currently at 33F under partly cloudy skies. Not much melted today. Thanks to the low sun angle.  Temps managed to still get in the upper 30s.

[james1976]

Highest rates of the season right now

[dubuque473]

Interesting band of mostly snow traversing across the state. Not very wide, but could drop a DAB if it holds together. 

 

Radar looking good...

[St Paul Storm]

We’re going to finish tonight with at least as much as we got last night, which was 2”.

[Bellona]

Thundersnow reported north and east of Waterloo

[Hawkeye]

Just like last night, the precip band is shrinking to nothing as it approaches Cedar Rapids.  This was not unexpected, though.

[james1976]

Three different counties in IA reported thundersnow tonight. Quick little dynamic system. I scored a nice 1.2" of wet snow.

[Niko]

What a beautiful evening to be out. Hardly any wind and not that cold. Not too shabby for this time of the year. At 32F.

[Hawkeye]

There is a thin, but nice-looking band moving through Cedar Rapids.  The problem?  It's rain.

[Stormy]

Hey jaster, what Radar is that?

Here's a link to a similar looking map from KCCI. You can set the map to earth or a darker mode for better contrast. I think it's pretty accurate for snow except when it is mixed precip maybe not so much. KCCI also has a radar app I sometimes use.

http://files.kcci.com/maxradar.html#

[St Paul Storm]

Another 2” of snow last night, and 1-3” expected early tomorrow. Stacking flakes this week.

[OmahaSnowFan]

GFS is cold and dry after this next system in a couple of days. If it was supposed to be so active, you'd think it would flash a system every once in a while. Looks pretty boring after this weekend...

[jaster220]

Temp in Marshall was stuck on 32/33F for (27) hrs straight from about 6 am yesterday until 9 am this morning. That's pretty rare for here. Surprising amount of our "veneer" glacier survived thanks to the much lower than forecast temps. I see they've lowered highs for Wednesday a full 6 or 8F degs keeping us in the 30's now. Today's 39/40F may be the warmest day of the week after all. 

 

Up to 36F currently at lunch time..

[Niko]

Attm, 36F under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

 

There are still some snow patches from Sundays surprise.

[Niko]

Looks like very cold weather for next week. Arctic air invasion.

[westMJim]

considerable cloudy and 34 here. Still a solid trace of snow on the ground but not much.

[Niko]

The Wednesday system will roll on thru my north and avoid any slick travel for mby thankfully. Although, a quick shower or wet snowshower cannot be ruled out.

[james1976]

Forecast for today was completely off. Was supposed to be sunny and upper 30s. Instead, it dropped from 34 to 27 throughout the day and remained cloudy.

[james1976]

Another WWA for tonight for frz drizzle

[OmahaSnowFan]

I'm under a WWA for tonight for freezing drizzle. What's weird though is it's only a 40% chance in the grids. Normally watches, warnings, advisories are for much more higher percentages of precip.

[Grizzcoat]

^^ same here but only 20%.

[OKwx2k4]

My analysis of SSTs to date leads me to believe in Tom's calls for a reload and a small amount of renewed hope for me in the one last "cold and active" period I have in mind at month's close or February's opening.

 

If the tide is going to turn, it only has about 14-21 days to get it done in the heart of true winter here.

 

So, in terms of SST only, we're looking at a colder rerun of last winter in the last half. My 2 cents worth. Have to make a call at some point and this one is mine.

 

The AO/NAO couplet in regards to weather here in patterns like this and the past 4 years seems to be becoming an unreliable tool (along with SAI) in determining a longer-term outcome into the core of winter.

 

[snowstorm83]

I'm under a WWA for tonight for freezing drizzle. What's weird though is it's only a 40% chance in the grids. Normally watches, warnings, advisories are for much more higher percentages of precip.

 

I like how they used to have Freezing Rain Advisories, because I feel like that covers this situation well. Having a WWA for freezing drizzle is kind of annoying. 

[Niko]

Currently cloudy w temps at 38F.

[jaster220]

@ Stasch

 

WPC thinkin about a nice stretch of LES 

 

Slight risk of heavy lake-effect snow for areas adjacent to the southern and eastern shores of the Great Lakes, Wed-Tue, Jan 22-28.

[Niko]

There is a system to watch between the 22-25th timeframe.

[jaster220]

This map gets my stamp of approval..

 

 

 

[Stacsh]

@ Stasch

 

WPC thinkin about a nice stretch of LES

Should whiten up the area. GFS backing off on the super cold, but cold enough. NW winds aren’t great for my area (need W) but I’ll take a week of winter nonetheless.

[Tom]

Rise 'N Grind...is the "Southern Stream Dream" pattern setting up next week for not 1, but 2 large scale storm systems to finish off the month???  I'm starting to see the ensembles and some op runs off the GFS/GGEM/Euro beginning to sniff out the next storm system on deck once we get past this weekends storm.  We have a couple things that are starting to show up in the models that are lining up with LRC cycle #1 which was the Hudson Bay/NE Canada ridge/AK Ridge.  As expected, there is a lot more blocking starting to blossom for the following week that will aid in a southerly storm track.  Using the 10mb Strat forecasts as guidance, I fully expect to see a more suppressed pattern to close out the last couple weeks of January and Back-to-Back storm systems.  

 

The first, of which, is set to arrive between the 23rd-25th and I expect to see the models begin to see a storm come out of the 4 corners and track thru the S Plains/MW and eventually cut up the Apps or OHV.  Depending on how strong the Hudson Bay ridge becomes will be one of the deciding factors.  You see that 10mb warm blob in NE Canada???  That will result in rising surface pressures across all of N/C Canada later next week and continue into the extended.  

 

These 10mb/30mb illustrations also paint a picture that blocking will be locked into place across NW NAMER into Canada into the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

 

 

Right on the heels of the storm late next week, I have mentioned before a pre-GHD storm system between the 26th-28th and this one has the potential to become a very large Winter storm for the southern tier of our Sub into the eastern Sub.  The pattern will remain active and thankfully, there is plenty of cold air to tap into unlike last month.  I'm more convinced then ever that our southern friends will start to see some action.  Needless to say, the EPS is growing an even stronger signal that Ol' Man Winter is going to make its way down south and east.

 

 

Last, but not least, if there is a window of opportunity for a GHD-III storm system, it may develop during this period or very close to it, when we saw the "Tropical Storm Olga" part of the pattern.  I'll dial into this as we get closer towards the end of the month.  With that being said, if your like me and are yearning for a legit chance for a southern stream storm to track, we will be entering a more favorable pattern based on all the research and knowledge I have learned from this years pattern.  

 

[Andie]

Last Friday's storms spawned 4 tornados. Not bad for winter.

3 were EF-0 and 1 was EF-1. The EF-1 was closest to me near Burleson.

I'm north in Benbrook

 

This morning started off at a warm 68* with fog. High expected to hit 74*. Just nuts for January.

 

[Niko]

Attm, 32F under partly sunny skies. There will be some light snow later today, which could accumulate an inch. I wasn't expected this at all. I guess this is the appetizer b4 the big snowstorm hits ova the weekend.

[St Paul Storm]

Snow band growing in intensity to the west. 1-2” of snow expected but it looks like it’s gonna rip for a bit. Seems to be way south of what guidance was showing.

[jaster220]

Snow band growing in intensity to the west. 1-2” of snow expected but it looks like it’s gonna rip for a bit. Seems to be way south of what guidance was showing.

 

Today's system has indeed come quite a bit south of d5-d3 projections. I think it's a hint of what the back-drop pattern is doing with waves and hopefully extends to the weekend storm as well in this regard. 

[jcwxguy]

Currently getting a snow shower in Fremont, ne

[Andie]

Good grief. It's 77*. Humidity is 71%. So it feels like 79*

 

Thing is, we have another 2 1/2-3 hrs of heating to go.

 

This is just totally bonkers for January 15th in Texas.

[Niko]

Currently at 39F under partly cloudy skies.

[Stacsh]

Nice rain shower moved through in Grand Rapids.  Mid-way point of winter.  More rain.  

[OKwx2k4]

Good grief. It's 77*. Humidity is 71%. So it feels like 79*

 

Thing is, we have another 2 1/2-3 hrs of heating to go.

 

This is just totally bonkers for January 15th in Texas.

Yes. This weather is weird. Cost of an early and relentless autumn. Winters rarely make it from end-to-end here, but Autumn this year was the picture perfect definition of false hope.

 

Moat hope I sincerely hold out for, in honesty, is an ice storm (for excitement mainly. It will be difficult if we have one.) to close the month and enough cold to cost me money and raise my electric bill. What a waste. Maybe I'm just getting older and grumpier. Who knows?

 

But right now, I just want to be outside. It is nice out at 63° and I'm not gonna complain.