Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[runninthruda206]

A lot could change over the next 5-6 days with that low, of course. And the precip output at this point is pretty meaningless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So if this were to go bad for PDX it would be a combination of the Monday low going to far south, and the mid-week thing either going south or doing essentially what it is doing on the 18z. 

[BLI snowman]

I wonder how cold the lower levels would actually be on Wednesday/Thursday with the offshore flow and no precip. 

 

Probably still some 20s for highs and lows. Would be really tough to see PDX dropping below about 22-23 without some sustained precip.

[Deweydog]

Probably still some 20s for highs and lows. Would be really tough to see PDX dropping below about 22-23 without some sustained precip.

They won’t drop below 27 just for my sake.

[BLI snowman]

A lot could change over the next 5-6 days with that low, of course. And the precip output at this point is pretty meaningless.

 

The low is meandering and detached from any jet support, so the general idea looks pretty set IMO. There could still be some variance but it'd take a pretty solid stroke of luck with the track, like the 18z GFS shows down here on Friday, for a significant snowstorm.

 

The cut-off properties of the low will help mitigate a major warm-up behind it of course, but will also significantly hinder lower and mid level moisture advection and the ability of the storm to overcome the drying from the strong pressure gradients.

[Brennan]

Looking like some places in the north half of Whatcom county could see 10-15” of snow with the system Sunday if it comes in where the 18z shows.

[Perturbed Member]

The snow map looks fine still but I feel PDX ain't too far from getting much closer to like 1 - 3 inch totals or even worse. 

 

At least the GFS track is better than the euro. We're 114 hrs out from the mid week system, hopefully still time for things to improve with it or get completely rug pulled.

 

[Skagit Weather]

New Cliff Mass post just focuses on cold. Not too much to add that we didn't already know.

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-coldest-air-in-years-will-hit.html

[Deweydog]

[MossMan]

The snow map looks fine still but I feel PDX ain't too far from getting much closer to like 1 - 3 inch totals or even worse.

 

At least the GFS track is better than the euro. We're 114 hrs out from the mid week system, hopefully still time for things to improve with it or get completely rug pulled.

 

Looks like the majority of western Oregon gets more snow than central Puget Sound. Not sure why everyone down there is so down in the dumps.

[Christensen87]

Fun's over by next weekend 

[MossMan]

[MossMan]

Fun's over by next weekend

We are not even to this weekend yet!

[TacomaWaWx]

Fun's over by next weekend 

That's still a full week of cold and snow if that verifies. Longer than a lot of cold snaps last. Who knows it could change and go on longer nothing set in stone really past 3-4ish days.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like the majority of western Oregon gets more snow than central Puget Sound. Not sure why everyone down there is so down in the dumps.

 

I think the 18z GFS had a near best possible track for that low, this map is a bit misleading. It is pretty concerning how poorly that low is able to deal with the dry outflow. The setup is somehow missing the dynamics needed to get better precip out of that low. I think a moderately worse track would lead to drastically worse accumulations around here. 

 

We're closer to getting completely screwed than these colorful maps are indicating.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

RIP Neil Peart.

what!!!

[Christensen87]

We are not even to this weekend yet!

 

Haha, according to 18z. Still hoping the cold sticks around longer 

[Omegaraptor]

Unforecasted sunshine!

[Deweydog]

what!!!

YYZ is my ringtone. I’ll burst into tears if my phone rings.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

RIP Neil Peart.

This hurts. My favorite drummer. Been to 4 shows..

[Front Ranger]

The low is meandering and detached from any jet support, so the general idea looks pretty set IMO. There could still be some variance but it'd take a pretty solid stroke of luck with the track, like the 18z GFS shows down here on Friday, for a significant snowstorm.

 

The cut-off properties of the low will help mitigate a major warm-up behind it of course, but will also significantly hinder lower and mid level moisture advection and the ability of the storm to overcome the drying from the strong pressure gradients.

 

It's skirting a fine line for anything great, for sure. But it's not a setup we see all too often, and I certainly wouldn't trust any modeled outcomes at this point. 

 

Anytime you have energy digging out over the Pacific like that, models seem to struggle even more than usual in this range.

[Randyc321]

what!!!

He lost his battle with brain cancer. 5 time Rush concert veteran here. He was one of the best ever.

[Randyc321]

YYZ is my ringtone. I’ll burst into tears if my phone rings.

My fav is La Villa Strangiato

[Deweydog]

This hurts. My favorite drummer. Been to 4 shows..

Six for me. So glad we decided late in the game to go their last show at the Moda Center.

 

The gorge in 2011 was by far the best. They closed out that tour there and didn’t leave anything on the table.

[UWweathernerd]

Seems a little on the conservative side for total

Accumulated snowfall through next Friday. But

I won’t be greedy!!

[Skagit Weather]

I was going through my Davis weather data to check up on historic precedent. I've had it for 12 years as of the end of January, although I only have daily data since 2010.

 

While we aren't quite looking at the record subzero lows model runs earlier in the week showed, anything below 12F and especially in the single digits would be spectacular. I haven't seen single digits since I hit 2F in 2008. Single digits are definitely possible if we can get a little snow on the ground and a clear sky one morning (although the wind may never calm down).

 

24F is the coldest high I've had during the past 12 years, which also looks like it could be beaten. And of course any prolonged subfreezing highs would be great, although not expecting at this time to break my record of 8 from 2008.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.25" today...3.48" for January. 9.70" in the last 24 days has only not rained 2 days in that stretch. Also last January had 3.95" of rain. We should surpass that before the Midway point of this January. So glad the split flow is gone.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Looks like the majority of western Oregon gets more snow than central Puget Sound. Not sure why everyone down there is so down in the dump

exactly this.  The PDX snowfall maps are far better than Central Puget sound and somehow PDX people feel like they're getting the short-end of the stick.

 

it's frustrating to read.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Six for me. So glad we decided late in the game to go their last show at the Moda Center.

The gorge in 2011 was by far the best. They closed out that tour there and didn’t leave anything on the table.

Tightest band live ever. Part of the reason I can't hear for shitt was listening to rush at 125db.

[Deweydog]

exactly this. The PDX snowfall maps are far better than Central Puget sound and somehow PDX people feel like they're getting the short-end of the stick.

 

it's frustrating to read.

That’s a 174 hour snow map, my friend.

[Deweydog]

Neil will make it snow!!!

 

...in Canada...

[TT-SEA]

Tightest band live ever. Part of the reason I can't hear for shitt was listening to rush at 125db.

Still driving to the cabin?

[bainbridgekid]

exactly this.  The PDX snowfall maps are far better than Central Puget sound and somehow PDX people feel like they're getting the short-end of the stick.

 

it's frustrating to read.

The Puget Sound has both much higher snow chances and colder temperatures in the near term, so it's not surprising they'd be frustrated.

 

Seattle may be in the upper 20's Monday afternoon with snow on the ground while PDX is near 40.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Neil will make it snow!!!

...in Canada...

The retirement makes sense now.

[FroYoBro]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still driving to the cabin?

Made girlfriend drive for the 18z lol. In Orondo now.

[Requiem]

exactly this.  The PDX snowfall maps are far better than Central Puget sound and somehow PDX people feel like they're getting the short-end of the stick.

 

it's frustrating to read.

 

The chances of PDX not getting much snow (even though ensembles still look good) is a lot higher than Seattle not getting anything. Our offshore flow looks to just shred things, unfortunately.

[Deweydog]

The retirement makes sense now.

Yeah I always thought in the back of my mind there was something more to it but they kept the lid on this pretty well. Totally understandable. He was a really private guy.

[jakerepp]

Blueish skies and gusty winds here now. Quite the change from calm and cold rain earlier today. 

[Perturbed Member]

exactly this.  The PDX snowfall maps are far better than Central Puget sound and somehow PDX people feel like they're getting the short-end of the stick.

 

it's frustrating to read.

 

That ignores a lot of details. The confidence in the snow in WA is much higher both because it is much closer in time and the setup is more believable/reliable. The Stuff down here is very marginal and just a model run away from becoming basically nothing. You need to pay attention to a bit more than just snow maps.