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2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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CentralNebWeather
CentralNebWeather

Nebraska weather, Sunday 66 degrees, Tuesday 20 degrees with low wind chills and accumulating snow. One reason among many that I love living on the Central Plains.

Tom
Tom

12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special    

Yerf
Yerf

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The GFS is a hair west, but it's still an east outlier.

 

It appears this system is gone for Iowa, but it would be nice to see areas just south and east get a nice storm.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

Could be wrong but that’s a shift NW right?

Actually, now that you mentioned it, yr right! It did move a smidge NW. This thing just destroys SEMI.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The Canadian has lost the big final wave.  A couple runs ago it had the energy for this wave near Paducah on Thursday.  Now it has it down in Mexico at the same time.

 

Edit:  Like the GFS, it finally blows up a good storm over the northeast US.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

UK backed off a bit on the final wave's strength, but it still has a few waves of snow adding up to solid totals from Missouri to Lake Erie.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

Posted
Posted

Is Andie gonna steal my snow??? Lol.attachicon.gifgfs_asnow_scus_18.png

Well, I'd happily share. I hope we get a day of the stuff. It's been a long long time since it's snowed here.

I'm not expecting a great deal though, but it'll be a nice change.

  • Like 2

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

Posted
Posted

Andie is the babe, maybe not..,

 

:lol:

 

 

Thanks!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Well looks like the storm is fizzling! Oh well, Go 49ers!

 

Well, looks like the storm is going BIG! Go Chiefs! 

 

Seriously, these "storm cancel" posts cuz it's not hitting mby are annoying as h*ll. All the models still have a storm.

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Plenty of GEFS members showing a wound up cutter...

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_114.png

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_162.png

 

I wanna believe in the more wound-up solutions, I really do. But in this winter, I don't think the smart $$ goes with that outcome. I'm settling for the middle of the pack decent system outcome. Already the UK stepped back from last night's amped run. 

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

Well, looks like the storm is going BIG! Go Chiefs! 

 

Seriously, these "storm cancel" cuz it's not hitting mby are annoying as h*ll. 

 I have noticed that too buddy.

 

So annoying. If you are not in the storm and don't like what you are seeing, then, leave the board and stop the crying B.S.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

Well looks like the storm is fizzling! Oh well, Go 49ers!

 

 I have noticed that too buddy.

 

So annoying. If you are not in the storm and don't like what you are seeing, then, leave the board and stop the crying B.S.

For your area, not others.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Could be wrong but that’s a shift NW right?

 

Compared to what run exactly? It's certainly NOT NW. As a matter of fact of the past (3) runs, it's the furthest SE. It was one of the models like the Euro wanting to turn the SLP north into Lk Huron but per this 02/12z run has joined the SE and more progressive crowd. Also, while the surface reflection shows 20+ hrs of flakes flying, it only adds up to ~4" here. Verbatim, a track with a SLP that far away isn't good for SWMI, even here let alone up there. Niko/MIMatt do ok tho. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Now that's closest to a consensus I have seen yet. Scary or awesome at this range. Bring it on.

 

After all the storms running over my head or NW these past 2 winters, this time around I'm dreading the SE trends. Also, never good that this storm keeps getting pushed back...and back...and back. Was a Monday thing out in the Plains. Now it's a Thur/Friday thing over SEMI. Hopefully Tom and the Euro are correct in showing a 500 mb signature more conducive to a wound-up storm. Waiting to see if/when it caves to the E and progressive trends seen today. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

12z Euro won't be anything like last run.  The sw energy is slower and the northern pieces are faster.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Just finished grillin” on a warm and windy GHD! Something I’ll remember.

 

Already at my forecasted High. Winds are a rippin tho, just like in Spring time..

 

20200202 KRMY Obs.PNG

 

(before the winds kicked-up, it was the nicest day for doing anything, even watching snow melt)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

12z Euro...big step back...

 

My posted concern of the day. Sad, just very very sad bud. Time to change thread title to "Head Fake frontal wave phantom bomb storm circa Feb 2020". I do believe you've been hosed by the guidance gremlins big fella!  ;)

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Seems everyone on here takes every model to heart when in fact you know that they are going to constantly change and nothing ever is written in stone.

Models are just for guidance and it's fun to follow to see what they show but in no way does it ever mean it's going to become reality

 

They are constantly changing, and failing miserably in the d3+ range. Too soon to tell if that's just a byproduct of a super lame winter, horrible storm set-ups, or what exactly? But they weren't this terrible in even recent years. I can clearly remember in the 2014/2015/2016 winters that once a storm's snow swath was hinted at, the models would slowly dial it in with some shifting around, but not by orders of magnitude we've seen lately. I'm sure some of the emotions can be attributed to being so d*mned storm-starved as well.  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Snowman Collaborator

The Snowman

Posted
Posted

Getting chippy in here

 

Nothing wrong with lamenting a less exciting solution in YBY just as there's nothing wrong with getting psyched for a more exciting solution in someone else's backyard

 

i think it's fair to say this storm sucks since it's not going to hit my area like it was forecasted to previously, but folks more towards Chicagoland have the same justification to say this storm rocks cause it's still painting accumulation

 

So yeah, this storm sucks in my eyes, but it looks like a solid start to February for others on here

 

Cheers & go Chiefs 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Hey, none of those annoying storm over posts. Didn’t you see what was declared to be allowed to post about?

Just bc it’s not going to be a storm for us, we’re not allowed to say the storm is over for us bc it’s not over for others. Makes sense.

 

I have zero issue with Peeps posting storm cancelled imby. But a couple on here didn't qualify their posts as "imby" as if there was no storm being shown at all. Which, sadly, now we may be joining 'em  :rolleyes:  

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

ICON was last to the amped storm party. I'm sure it will be caving next run as well

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

Posted
Posted

I really hope nobody gets snow from this after the attitude I've seen. It's a FACT that this looks like a strung out piece of crap for MOST of the forum we're posting in.  Just because your backyard has some snow on models doesn't mean the pattern is good or the storm impressive. It's a positively tilted weak wave for MOST. Is that really so hard to hear? Michigan posters, no offense but you're kinda out in no man's land compared to the rest of this forum. Other people who don't live there are allowed to vent when a pattern looks like junk.

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