Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I wonder what the magical temps will have to be to actually get sticking snow on the streets IF this happens. Sun angle has warmed surfaces and even during the day it will be tough to get sticking snow on the streets with a higher sun. I'd bet temps would have to be 28f max to get things sticking. Hey, I'd still be happy with 33f snow in March for a day. Looks to me there will be possible light southerly drift to start with. That isn't going to help either if we want sticking snow on the valley floor. I think good precip rates and just around freezing is still good enough. It is hard to get those together though, especially this time of year. Upper 20s and snow isn't going to happen with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Good chance most people will atleast see some snow in the air. Euro is pretty chilly too. Maybe this will be a fun Portland special to make up for the lame winter down there. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 At least the last 6 if not more GFS runs actually take a really similar track with the Friday low and the ensemble support looks good too. Hopefully counts for something. I'm still quite skeptical about the GFS and its cold bias but having the euro on board makes me feel better about seeing something. Snow in the air at the lowest elevations looking quite doable.The EURO being similar inspires confidence. I may get a few flurries here at the top of the West Hills. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 It has been beautiful for the last several days. Frosty mornings and mild days. Hardly a cloud in the sky. My prediction for eugene is a few positive windshield splats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I feel a rug pull is on the horizon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I feel a rug pull is on the horizon.I feel it’s a northerly pull Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Mark: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I feel it’s a northerly pullRugs can be pulled in any direction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I feel it’s a northerly pullOf course— that would be preferable for you. Either way PDX has a better chance simply because of the added Gorge influence this weekend, I feel. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I feel it’s a northerly pull I think climo would favor you, especially this time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I see people get excited about cold rain. Time to move on to spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Mark:Mark’s ready for spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I feel it’s a northerly pullI really hope you don’t get any snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Mark:This February/March it’s been pretty easy to know when it’s a weekend simply by looking outside. Warm/sunny Monday-Thursday... then cold troughing moves in on Friday like clockwork and it warms up again on Monday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I really hope you don’t get any snowProbably not. In mid March he need a lot more than this to get snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Probably not. In mid March he need a lot more than this to get snow.Then it ain’t gonna happen since this is TOP TIER!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I am glad the Euro is in our camp right now. That’s got to be worth like four or five NAMs if I’m getting my model exchange rates right. JMA also disagrees with the NAM. 72 hours on the NAM is basically 168 hours on the GFS and 240 hours on the Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 JMA also disagrees with the NAM. 72 hours on the NAM is basically 168 hours on the GFS and 240 hours on the Euro. You forgot the all important top tier NAVGEM. Disagrees with the NAM and is south as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 You forgot the all important top tier NAVGEM. Disagrees with the NAM and is south as well. That was the 06z, though. 12z and 18z didn't fully load. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Still no forecast thread? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 That was the 06z, though. 12z and 18z didn't fully load. Yeah those runs might finish by the weekend at the current pace.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I think good precip rates and just around freezing is still good enough. It is hard to get those together though, especially this time of year. Upper 20s and snow isn't going to happen with this. It would have to be really heavy rates, night-time but accums will be brief on the roadways. The asphalt is soaking a lot of solar up during the day now and makes it pretty tough to get a 33f snowflake to last on a 45-50f street. Those street temps could be a little colder when the precip starts but still too warm. It could happen briefly but unless it's prolonged heavy snow, it just won't be cold enough. If it's daytime, obviously will be even tougher. I'll still take an inch of wet snow and bare pavement over no snow at all in March. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Still no forecast thread?Cuz you haven’t made one yet. May I suggest calling it, “The March 2020 late season viral outbreak (too corona 2 snow) contest thread”? We can at least make that the working title. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Enjoying these beautiful days. It's gonna be depressing when/if wet snow starts falling. It won't stick and would just be an annoyance. I'm ready for summer. 57/40 today. I was happy to not scrape frost off the windshield this morning. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 UKMET is south too. Good low position on most models outside of the NAM and ICON. Still so many ways this thing can screw up even assuming the low comes south. Hopefully don't end up with the classic cold air getting held up and not getting here through the gorge before the precip ends problem. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Should be another nice sunset and moonrise this evening. 55/38 here today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 UKMET is south too. Good low position on most models outside of the NAM and ICON. ukmet1.png Still so many ways this thing can screw up even assuming the low comes south. Hopefully don't end up with the classic cold air getting held up and not getting here through the groge before the precip ends problem.Great news. Would be nice to even just see some flakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Great news. Would be nice to even just see some flakes.Yeah getting a few inches would need things to come together nearly perfectly but think seeing flakes is probably more likely than not now. I expect the NAM to come in line by tomorrow if not tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 This will over perform in some places I'd bet. Should be a pretty decent storm in the okanagan. 50 mph winds with blowing snow and low 20's is impressive for March. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Cuz you haven’t made one yet. May I suggest calling it, “The March 2020 late season viral outbreak (too corona 2 snow) contest thread”? We can at least make that the working title. SNOVID2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 This cold will not quit. My teachers recommended I stay home tomorrow as well, but I’d rather get back to school ASAP tbh. Out of precaution I’ll probably take another day . Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 This cold will not quit. My teachers recommended I stay home tomorrow as well, but I’d rather get back to school ASAP tbh. Out of precaution I’ll probably take another day . Have you been tested? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Have you gotten tested?No, I don’t think it’s that bad yet. There’s a case near my house (which is concerning), but slowly I’m getting better. Should be able to finally get back to school on Friday. I honestly feel bad missing school— I don’t think I’m sick enough to deserve that privilege. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 This cold will not quit. My teachers recommended I stay home tomorrow as well, but I’d rather get back to school ASAP tbh. Out of precaution I’ll probably take another day . I hope you feel better soon but seriously don't go back if you're sick and especially if you can't rule out COVID19. You might be fine but think about other people, especially the elderly and vulnerable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 00z NAM clearly trending south relative to 18z which was south of the 12z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 00z NAM clearly trending south relative to 18z which was south of the 12z.hr 51 is north of 18z Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Conflicting reports!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 hr 51 is north of 18zYeah it was out to HR 45 when I posted Last 3 runs It ends up curving back NW afterwards so it really doesn't come as far south as I expected based on the above images. NAM hasn't fundamentally changed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 A fairly cool month might possible if we weren't overachieving on high temps every day. OLM is running a -2.0! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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