August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

At all is an exaggeration, but it certainly hasn’t changed very much since I first saw that area in the late 1980’s.

The only thing that I could see that could potentially make an impact is the ever expanding Boeing buildings in Seattle around the airport. Other than that, the area is mostly unchanged. I’m literally just 5-7 mins away and can say the development is very minimal in the last 30 years or so. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

One way to measure effects of land use change immediately surrounding a station (like new asphalt, a new building, etc) is to compare trends from windier, cloudier months to those from stagnant months.

If the trend *difference* is augmented on calm, sunny days versus windy, cloudy days, then changes to the land around the station is most likely responsible. If not, then it’s either climate change, larger scale land use change, or sensor drift. Or some combination.

Frustratingly for this method, one of the most profound changes in temperatures in this region during recent decades is in summertime averages.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Here's a comparison 

Pre 3rd runway Seatac 

1999-2003

Mean Temp June 60.04 July 64.38 August 64.94

BFI 

1999-2003

Mean temp June 62.04 July 66.11 August 66.3

Post Seatac

2009-2013

Mean Temp June 60.92 July 66.1 August 66.82

BFI

2009-2013

Mean Temp June 61.78 July 66.96 August 66.68

Difference 1999-2003 June 2.00 July 1.73 August 1.36

Difference 2009-2013 June 0.86 July .86 August -.14

 

Warming maybe caused by third runway? June 1.14 July 0.87 Aug 1.5

 

Nice analysis.

I mean, no matter how you slice it, it's pretty clear that SEA has seen outsized warming due to land changes/UHI. 

[YahRaEl]

Pushing 74-78 here at Eastside Tacoma currently 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There has been basically no development out here in the last 20 years in my area and I can tell you unequivocally that summers have been getting warmer over that time period.    

I don’t think you’re the most objective source, brother.

All of your temp reports (day & night) were easily 7-10°F warmer compared to where I was in both Seattle & Everett.

I’m half trolling here but hand serious too. It was..sus.

[lowlandsnow]

19 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Here's a comparison 

Pre 3rd runway Seatac 

1999-2003

Mean Temp June 60.04 July 64.38 August 64.94

BFI 

1999-2003

Mean temp June 62.04 July 66.11 August 66.3

Post Seatac

2009-2013

Mean Temp June 60.92 July 66.1 August 66.82

BFI

2009-2013

Mean Temp June 61.78 July 66.96 August 66.68

Difference 1999-2003 June 2.00 July 1.73 August 1.36

Difference 2009-2013 June 0.86 July .86 August -.14

 

Warming maybe caused by third runway? June 1.14 July 0.87 Aug 1.5

 

 

 

 

Also added in a comparison of more recent years

2018-2022

BFI 

Mean June 63.44 July 68.68 August 68.86

2018-2022

Seatac 

Mean June 63.04 July 68.4 August 68.66

Possible warming by third runway 

June 1.6 July 1.45 August 1.16

 

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

84 at PDX. Running 6°F ahead of yesterday

[Cloud]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

At all is an exaggeration, but it certainly hasn’t changed very much since I first saw that area in the late 1980’s.

Also, one thing I will say though going from north to south (from Seattle), the development is really trying to cut into Georgetown. I’d imagine at some point, the city may just deem Georgetown as needing an upgrade and tear it to the ground. Folks might not like it as it’s a historic town, but it could happen. Then it’ll become a huge issue. 

[lowlandsnow]

Now to be very clear I am not saying that climate change hasn't had a large impact on summer temps in Western WA but its effects are overstated at SeaTac

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Frustratingly for this method, one of the most profound changes in temperatures in this region during recent decades is in summertime averages.

That’s a pain in the butt. Would have to try and compare windier vs calmer summer months I guess, but at that scale noise becomes a factor.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Already 87 after a ridiculous low of 76

Low of 76? Thats east coast stuff right there.

Whats your average low?

[Cold Snap]

Had a low of 61 this morning. Only my second 60+ low this summer.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Low of 76? Thats east coast stuff right there.

Whats your average low?

Average low is probably similar to the majority of the Portland Metro area. Just 5 miles away Hillsboro airport dropped to the low 60s.

A few days ago we got to the low 50s

I think it has to do with the West hills being so close by, which kept a breeze all night

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

84 at PDX. Running 6°F ahead of yesterday

90 here already! +8

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

One way to measure effects of land use change immediately surrounding a station (like new asphalt, a new building, etc) is to compare trends from windier, cloudier months to those from stagnant months.

If the trend *difference* is augmented on calm, sunny days versus windy, cloudy days, then changes to the land around the station is most likely responsible. If not, then it’s either climate change, larger scale land use change, or sensor drift. Or some combination.

I agree with this -- the key is that it's "some combination" and we don't really know what the combination is. I think we just need to accept that and it sounds like most on this forum are on board with that. What I adamantly argue is that KSEA is representative of the current climate of the Seattle metropolitan area. A record high at KSEA is a record high for that location. 

For BFI, someone would need to run a microscale modeling study to pull out any changes from local buildings. I would argue it is basically unchanged. However, BFI had major sensor drift issues in 2013-2015 so you have to be really careful with how you look at that dataset (best to just drop those 3 years). The differences between KBFI and KSEA are quite complex -- at KSEA the water is mainly to the south/west, at KBFI it's mainly to the north. But if the wind is more NNE than NNW then KBFI doesn't get the cooler breeze. The current heat wave is a perfect example of when KBFI will run 2-4 F cooler than KSEA in the afternoons. If the wind is reversed, then KBFI runs warmer. And we have plenty of warm and sunny days here with a southerly and northerly wind. 

 

23 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Here's a comparison 

Pre 3rd runway Seatac 

1999-2003

Mean Temp June 60.04 July 64.38 August 64.94

BFI 

1999-2003

Mean temp June 62.04 July 66.11 August 66.3

Post Seatac

2009-2013

Mean Temp June 60.92 July 66.1 August 66.82

BFI

2009-2013

Mean Temp June 61.78 July 66.96 August 66.68

Difference 1999-2003 June 2.00 July 1.73 August 1.36

Difference 2009-2013 June 0.86 July .86 August -.14

 

Warming maybe caused by third runway? June 1.14 July 0.87 Aug 1.5

 

 

 

 

This is really nice, thank you. So somewhere around the low-1F range. But again, it's not a controlled experiment, there were other land use changes in that time as well. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think you’re the most objective source, brother.

All of your temp reports (day & night) were easily 7-10°F warmer compared to where I was in both Seattle & Everett.

I’m half trolling here but hand serious too. It was..sus.

I think you are full on trolling.    As I have described many, many times... its very easy for it to be 5 degrees warmer than SEA and 10 degrees warmer than Everett in the warm season with weak onshore flow.  Literally happens all the time because we are much farther from the water out here.   And weak onshore flow has become much more common overall... along with a notable decline in marine layer days out here in the summer.   

I don't think late fall through spring has changed much though.   Unfortunately... the striking number of dead trees in my area tells the story of the warm season trend very well.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think you’re the most objective source, brother.

All of your temp reports (day & night) were easily 7-10°F warmer compared to where I was in both Seattle & Everett.

I’m half trolling here but hand serious too. It was..sus.

It is well known that on the West Coast during the summer, it generally warms as you move inland from the coast.

North Bend is significantly inland from Seattle. Therefore one would expect it to be warmer. Plus, this jibes with my personal experience passing through that area during summer afternoons: it is almost always noticeably warmer in North Bend than in Seattle.

[FroYoBro]

9 minutes ago, Timmy said:

90 here already! +8

Just touched 90 here too. Pretty gross at 10:30am. 

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Now to be very clear I am not saying that climate change hasn't had a large impact on summer temps in Western WA but its effects are overstated at SeaTac

Exactly. But SEA is the station cited by the media and most others when it comes to records - and the vast majority of people are going to read that as 100% due to climate change.

[MWG]

Meanwhile in the town I grew up in PR. That heat index  and is expected to reach to 112F

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you are full on trolling.    As I have described many, many times... its very easy for it to be 5 degrees warmer than SEA and 10 degrees warmer than Everett in the warm season with weak onshore flow.  Literally happens all the time because we are much farther from the water out here.   And weak onshore flow has become much more common overall... along with a notable decline in marine layer days out here in the summer.   

I don't think late fall through spring has changed much though.   Unfortunately... the striking number of dead trees in my area tells the story of the warm season trend very well.  

I think Phil’s East Coast bias is coming into play. He’s just not that experienced with West Coast weather. We really are a land of microclimates out here.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think Phil’s East Coast bias is coming into play. He’s just not that experienced with West Coast weather. We really are a land of microclimates out here.

He refuses to try and understand how things works out here.   He would rather just troll me and assume I live on a ridgetop at 5,000 feet and my backyard is actually glaciated and its never warm or dry.   

Currently 76 at SEA and 82 in North Bend.   

Reminder for Phil... I only live 500 feet higher than SEA.   And all that does in the summer is keep my low temps warmer than on the valley floor.   The days are as warm or warmer than SEA most of the time.  

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[YahRaEl]

19 minutes ago, MWG said:

Meanwhile in the town I grew up in PR. That heat index  and is expected to reach to 112F

About the same in Maunabo PR where I am from

[YahRaEl]

Something up with the SEA sensor or it's Mesowest website 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, MWG said:

Meanwhile in the town I grew up in PR. That heat index  and is expected to reach to 112F

Heat index is 116°F here currently. If it weren’t for the stiff sea breeze we couldn’t be outside.

But my god, once you get 100 yards inland and the wind is obstructed, there are no words. You start dripping sweat an incredible rate.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSSI&hours=72

[GobBluth]

GFS is a dream mid/long term with the west coast troughing, but it's also spinning up a 957 hurricane into the Louisiana coast.

[TacomaWx]

80 degrees at home already. Will probably be the first 90 degree day of the year. 

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you are full on trolling.    As I have described many, many times... its very easy for it to be 5 degrees warmer than SEA and 10 degrees warmer than Everett in the warm season with weak onshore flow.  Literally happens all the time because we are much farther from the water out here.   And weak onshore flow has become much more common overall... along with a notable decline in marine layer days out here in the summer.   

I don't think late fall through spring has changed much though.   Unfortunately... the striking number of dead trees in my area tells the story of the warm season trend very well.  

I’m not sure if Phil has figured out about the sea breeze in the PNW. It was 95 here yesterday and 84 at YYJ Victoria.  Probably only 10 or 15 miles apart as the crow flies.  I could probably see the airport from here if I cut a few trees down.  It’s the opposite in the winter.  It can be snowing here and 32F while it’s raining at YYJ and in the mid 40s.

The city of Victoria can easily have a temperature spread of 20 degrees between the coast and inland on a hot summer day  

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

Washington has 14 climate zones - compared to 3 in Maryland:

10 miles out west can make as much different as 100 miles back east.

[lowlandsnow]

10 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Something up with the SEA sensor or it's Mesowest website 

I don't think SEA has updated since 9:50 or so 

[Requiem]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He refuses to try and understand how things works out here.   He would rather just troll me and assume I live on a ridgetop at 5,000 feet and my backyard is actually glaciated and its never warm or dry.   

Currently 76 at SEA and 82 in North Bend.   

Reminder for Phil... I only live 500 feet higher than SEA.   And all that does in the summer is keep my low temps warmer than on the valley floor.   The days are as warm or warmer than SEA most of the time.  

Perhaps Phil, being an east coaster and specifically a Marylander, doesn't really comprehend the sharp microclimates and terrain-influenced weather patterns we have over in our neck of the woods. 

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Washington has 14 climate zones - compared to 3 in Maryland:

10 miles out west can make as much different as 100 miles back east.

15 climate zones according to this map

[FroYoBro]

Officially 90 at pdx now at 11am. Hitting that number an hour earlier than yesterday. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

GFS is a dream mid/long term with the west coast troughing, but it's also spinning up a 957 hurricane into the Louisiana coast.

I also see both GFS/CMC bring a deluge of subtropical moisture from that Baja hurricane into the Desert Southwest.

[Tanis Leach]

8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So the south valley seeing southerly winds at some point I’m guessing Springfield will get them first then it’ll get to EUG a little while later then stall out along the northern Lane County border on a Veneta to Harrisburg to Sweet Home line. Like winter airmasses that’s usually how it goes.

Kind of going for that (without outright saying it), but Corvallis gets in on it due to the microclimates. South winds would come up from the Umpqua River Valley.

[SunAndSnow]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

84 at PDX. Running 6°F ahead of yesterday

91° at the house, also +6° from yesterday. Would put us at 107-108 for the day. 

[Cloud]

Maybe very close to mid-80s here by noon. Got to 80 before 11.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

SEA tied its second warmest low temp this morning with 71.

09-10 anal log rearing its ugly head again

[ShawniganLake]

85 here. Pretty similar to yesterday