September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[YahRaEl]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Mostly sunny now and up to 70 here... beautiful day.

70° also here at Eastside Tacoma 

[Cloud]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS completely takes away the Sunday/Monday rain event.   Caved to the ECMWF.

 

Told you Phil giving a ballpark nod to the GFS last night would doomed this scenario.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Told you Phil giving a ballpark nod to the GFS last night would doomed this scenario.  

This is shittier than a Lainey Wilson song.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny and 72 with a few puffy clouds floating around.   Days like this make make me so angry.    Summer is evil and needs to die.  Horrific out there with room temperature air and deep blue sky.  I think l will cheer loudly for troughing thousands of miles away.     Will that help @Phil?   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro says healthy, real trough at day 7.

I think I will name it Godot.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm just curious for my garden. Right now the low says 45, but we usually run 5-6 degrees below the stated low on clear nights. That puts us right in the threshold. 

How much snow do you get per year? Gotta be at least 50.

[SouthHillFrosty]

One of my coworkers posted this from Colorado today.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much snow do you get per year? Gotta be at least 50.

Unfortunately, no. In my 6 winters here we have averaged right around 25". Best winter was 2018-2019, 64" that year. 

[Deweydog]

Spectacular day!

And one more closer to imminent death!

[T-Town]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Spectacular day!

And one more closer to imminent death!

I think this is a Pink Floyd song. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Unfortunately, no. In my 6 winters here we have averaged right around 25". Best winter was 2018-2019, 64" that year. 

I imagine you do well in the Fraser outflow strait effect snow situations. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Cloud said:

Told you Phil giving a ballpark nod to the GFS last night would doomed this scenario.  

GFS caves to the mighty euro.  will you people ever learn?

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I think this is a Pink Floyd song. 

Funny you should say that. My hands have felt like two balloons all day. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I imagine you do well in the Fraser outflow strait effect snow situations. 

I remember one year Port Angeles was buried in that type of situation... his area must have been crazy with that event.   Don't remember what year that was but it must have been before he moved there.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

15 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I imagine you do well in the Fraser outflow strait effect snow situations. 

Those provide peak events. I have seen 2 good ones so far. 32" and 18" in less than 12 hours

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember one year Port Angeles was buried in that type of situation... his area must have been crazy with that event.   Don't remember what year that was but it must have been before he moved there.

1993, PA got 3 feet of snow. We basically matched that event in Feb 2019

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

1993, PA got 3 feet of snow. We basically matched that event in Feb 2019

That would not be the year I am thinking of since we didn't live here in 1993.    Maybe I am remembering 2019.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember one year Port Angeles was buried in that type of situation... his area must have been crazy with that event.   Don't remember what year that was but it must have been before he moved there.

Port Angeles had snowstorms where they got upwards of 18" in  both Feb 2019 and Jan 2020. Both in upslope situations with the Fraser River outflow.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That would not be the year I am thinking of since we didn't live here in 1993.    Maybe I am remembering 2019.

Sorry it was 1996. Since then we have had the two events @BLI snowman is referencing and a few medium events. When PA gets 18-20" I usually get 30+

 

https://www.peninsuladailynews.com/news/white-christmas-week-snowstorm-of-1996-remembered-20-years-later/

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Sorry it was 1996. Since then we have had the two events @BLI snowman is referencing and a few medium events. When PA gets 18-20" I usually get 30+

 

https://www.peninsuladailynews.com/news/white-christmas-week-snowstorm-of-1996-remembered-20-years-later/

Ahhh yes... I remember hearing lots of stories about the 1996 event on Vancouver Island and around Port Angeles.

[T-Town]

41 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Funny you should say that. My hands have felt like two balloons all day. 

I’d ask you to explain but I’m sure I would not understand. 

[Cloud]

43 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

GFS caves to the mighty euro.  will you people ever learn?

Tbf, there were instances last month that the GFS performed slightly better. But we are now in a transitioning phase, so the GFS may have been a tad too aggressive and volatility is expected.  case in point, the 18z is now back to showing wet for W.Wa for the same period that it took away the rain on its last run. Hard to say it caves to anything. 

I will say, it’s probably about this time of the year where the I feel like the Euro will start to pull ahead.

[T-Town]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh yes... I remember hearing lots of stories about the 1996 event on Vancouver Island and around Port Angeles.

1996 was probably the craziest weather event of my life and I lived in Renton at the time. Snow, ice, and snow to AR in the span of a few days. 

[Cloud]

Towards the end of the 18z is a thing of beauty. We’re gonna hammer at this thing until it actually happen!

[Anti Marine Layer]

22 hours ago, Requiem said:

Not to be xenophobic but if all you're gonna contribute here are weird quips and quasi-political statements can you go back to the California thread

The California thread is dead and no one said anything about naked people in there.

[Phil]

7 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Kids don't really learn anything in school these days anyway. Our school systems are terrible across the country for a variety of reasons. 

Grade school is glorified babysitting.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh yes... I remember hearing lots of stories about the 1996 event on Vancouver Island and around Port Angeles.

I was living in Shoreline then and got well over 20" at my place in 1996. Bellingham got 4' and Victoria got 5'.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You wish.

CFS is trash. (IIRC) it is being decommissioned at some point before the close of this decade.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

GFS caves to the mighty euro.  will you people ever learn?

Did it though?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

43 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Tbf, there were instances last month that the GFS performed slightly better. But we are now in a transitioning phase, so the GFS may have been a tad too aggressive and volatility is expected.  case in point, the 18z is now back to showing wet for W.Wa for the same period that it took away the rain on its last run. Hard to say it caves to anything. 

I will say, it’s probably about this time of the year where the I feel like the Euro will start to pull ahead.

Whenever the GFS and the Euro profoundly disagree about something, the outcome is almost always far closer to the what the Euro models.

[Phil]

18z GFS looks troughy. So does the 12z EPS.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Whenever the GFS and the Euro profoundly disagree about something, the outcome is almost always far closer to the what the Euro models.

True. But in this case the operational ECMWF had been diverging significantly from the EPS mean, which is a red flag IMO.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

I’d ask you to explain but I’m sure I would not understand. 

Have you become comfortably numb? 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, MossMan said:

Have you become comfortably numb? 

getting there

[TigerWoodsLibido]

82F and sunny. Another beautiful day.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I was living in Shoreline then and got well over 20" at my place in 1996. Bellingham got 4' and Victoria got 5'.

Dang... I am surprised we don't bring up that year more often tbh. Does anybody have a map of the results from that storm so I can look? I was born in 99 so I never saw it.

[Cold Snap]

4 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Unfortunately, no. In my 6 winters here we have averaged right around 25". Best winter was 2018-2019, 64" that year. 

You must have done really good in the Jan 2020 event. Downtown Port Angeles got like 18 inches from that.

[YahRaEl]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/09/the-transition-to-meteorological-fall.html?m=1

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/09/the-transition-to-meteorological-fall.html?m=1

Isn’t that the second time this season that he’s made that call?

Answer: Yup.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/08/meteorological-autumn-starts-today.html?m=1

[Frontal Snowsquall]

20 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nws is pulling back a bit and shows no more 90s.

KPTV still going with 90s for tomorrow and Friday. Saturday is looking upper 80s now.