iFred Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 52 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: His internet persona is an extremely unlikable guy who happens to be good at making pretty graphics. Yeah, Dr Sharpie is an outright asshole. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 I think El Nino is an overplayed card. We'll see if I am still saying that in six months. At the end of the day though, it's next winter that is due/destined to be a dud IMO. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 65/50 so far today at SLE. 56/48 at mi casa. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Blizzard777 Posted September 28, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 2.76 inches of rain showing for September my place although I haven’t been there much. In fact I’m still not there ! Hope you’re all doing well and looks like a parade of storms paid you all a visit! C-zone must be active as my nest cam is showing buildup to the north but blue skies overhead. I’m still in the SW exploring but unfortunately monsoons have been none existent where I’ve been. Just lots O Sun! Fossil Creek (spring) has the pretty water and cool cave. Camelback hike where you see the boulder field….it’s a scramble hike down here in Scottsdale and beautiful sunset last night here in Estrella Az. 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 SouthHill frosty, congrats on the little (I mean big one) one Rubus…I’ll need to check that hike out! Nice elevation gain as well. BLI, well done out here exploring with me!!! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 65/50 so far today at SLE. 56/48 at mi casa. Exceeding dry adiabatic lapse rate! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 4 hours ago, Front Ranger said: This is how you end a fire season. But also, I mean like... ...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests. 3 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Some of the local Mets are talking about an inversion happening if the ridging happens. Wouldn’t be surprised if things turned out that way. Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 27 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: But also, I mean like... ...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests. indeed, cherry picking never paints the actual picture 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 34 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: But also, I mean like... ...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests. It’s close to green on the map at OLM tho 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 Interesting satellite pic this evening... c-zone over Seattle and the incoming system going south and completely clear skies to the north of that system over the ocean. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 40 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: But also, I mean like... ...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests. Definitely underdone around Seattle at least. SEA is at 213% of normal for the entire month and some of our posters in Seattle have reported even more than SEA for the month. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 3.14” of rain so far month. Wetter than 2019 (2.84”) but behind 2021 (4.06”). Much better than 2022 (0.11”). Our wettest September is 2013 (5.95”) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: He is/was, I believe, even older than me, and I am one of the older people here. So the thought that might have happened occurred to me as well. And if none of his next of kin knows about this forum, nobody would have told us. Anyone know his entire real name? Not to post it here, but to run a few web searches if you can. If he did pass away, I don't think it would be that hard to find out. I’d never have guessed you were old based on your posting style. Until you posted those pics a few weeks ago I’d always pictured you as a 30-something hippie with a nose ring. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 8 hours ago, RentonHill said: amazing how the models were so locked into troughing a few days ago for this period and have completely flipped. I jinxed it by posting every run with the good pattern. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Cold Snap said: Some of the local Mets are talking about an inversion happening if the ridging happens. Wouldn’t be surprised if things turned out that way. Last October didn’t end up like that! It depends on the winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 2002 has been popping up more frequently of late. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phil said: 2002 has been popping up more frequently of late. 1985!!! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Cold Snap said: Some of the local Mets are talking about an inversion happening if the ridging happens. Wouldn’t be surprised if things turned out that way. Just in time for a spooky Silent Hill PNW October? 3 1 Quote 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 I think this is the driest analog super-ensemble mean I’ve ever seen in the west. And further amplifies from D+8 to D+11. Not sure why this should be the case. Unless there’s a systemic problem with guidance, I am stumped as to why this wouldn’t show up in LP analog pools beforehand. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Phil said: I think this is the driest analog super-ensemble mean I’ve ever seen in the west. And further amplifies from D+8 to D+11. Not sure why this should be the case. Unless there’s a systemic problem with guidance, I am stumped as to why this wouldn’t show up in LP analog pools beforehand. has anyone checked on the atlantic current recently?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 (edited) Wish I could have taken a drive today! Also major rumbling going on outside which is also shaking the house at times, but I’m pretty sure it’s military aircraft and not thunder. Edited September 29, 2023 by MossMan 4 2 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Phil said: 2002 has been popping up more frequently of late. 1951, a solid analog. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 Certainly not dry in the west right now. Light rain and 53. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 .09” so far on the day, 2.34” for the month. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 local news said after some showers tonight we're going to be dry over here for the next at least week and a half Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 spokane has also been below normal on precip at the airport station for 8 of the 9 months this year. pretty solid drought. we need all the rain we can get. a drier than normal winter is bad news for next year (summer) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 3 hours ago, Phil said: I’d never have guessed you were old based on your posting style. Until you posted those pics a few weeks ago I’d always pictured you as a 30-something hippie with a nose ring. I did actually have one of those at one time but about five or six years ago got tired of it and took it out. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 No rain, no gain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 Saturday night/Sunday morning looking chilly 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 4 hours ago, Skagit Weather said: But also, I mean like... ...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests. It's not how the month began, it's how it ended. Fire season is done. 4 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 There’s a second area of subsidence near the dateline that is actually quasi-La Niña like (the more anomalous subsidence in the E-IO/MC does reflect El Niño/+IOD though). Obviously the niña-ish dateline subsidence signal is intraseasonal (transient) in nature, but perhaps it could explain the ridgier pattern developing in the west next month. Ironic that the change to more niña/p4 RMM theme could be what’s bringing about the ridge. In the middle of winter that would teleconnect to a more -PNA/-TNH pattern up there. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: It's not how the month began, it's how it ended. Fire season is done. Totally agree... its very wet now across the area and fire season is done which was your original point. (@Port Angeles Foothiller force field notwithstanding) 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: indeed, cherry picking never paints the actual picture There was nothing cherry-picked. That's the most recent week, that's what has definitively ended the fire season. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 The 00z GEM shows strong offshore flow a little over a week from now as cold air slides into Montana. The east winds will be rippin! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 And have to say the LP signal projecting on VP200 anoms is kind of weird. At least to date. Clearly the +IOD is constructively resonating with the east-based nature of this El Niño event (also explains the active Atlantic hurricane despite the powerful niño). The most coherent LP signal here is the subsidence over the E-IO/IPWP domain, not over the Pacific. So if your analogs have -IOD during the fall/winter rolled forward, they probably won’t work. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 3 hours ago, RentonHill said: has anyone checked on the atlantic current recently?? Atlantic is already on Rina which is basically on pace with 2005 named storms wise. 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 5 hours ago, Blizzard777 said: SouthHill frosty, congrats on the little (I mean big one) one Rubus…I’ll need to check that hike out! Nice elevation gain as well. BLI, well done out here exploring with me!!! Preciate it man! Hope the southwest is treating you well! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Atlantic is already on Rina which is basically on pace with 2005 named storms wise. Unprecedented in the post-WWII era to have such activity during a developing strong El Niño. Have to back to at least the 20s/30s for the last instance of developing El Niño constero —> EPAC-canonical El Niño. There were some in the mid/late 19th century too. +IOD and east-based emergence of the niño definitely factors in driving that outcome, along with residual -PMM. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 29, 2023 Report Share Posted September 29, 2023 21 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Atlantic is already on Rina which is basically on pace with 2005 named storms wise. I was referencing day after tomorrow but thank you nonetheless for the info! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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