November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[chescowxman]

We picked up 0.08" of rain overnight for a total of 0.10". The 0.08" that fell so far today is the most rain in a day since the 0.17" on October 29th. Temps have slowly been falling this morning with now mid-40's across the area since a midnight high temperature in the mid to upper 50's. We should not see below normal temperatures through the remainder of November and into the first week of December. The NWS has us getting back to the low 50's for much of the area...I suspect most of the county will actually struggle to make it out of the 40's today. Tomorrow looks to be our "mildest" day of the week with some spots touching 50 degrees. We should finally see some significant rain by Tuesday afternoon ending by Wednesday morning. Some spots could see almost 1" of needed rain. The Thanksgiving holiday weekend looks chilly and dry with days in the low 40's and nights in the 20's.

Records for today: High 77 (1896) / Low 12 (1924) / Rain 1.21" (1929) / Snow 1.0" (1955)

[hawkstwelve]

Quite the change on today's 12z CMC vs yesterday's 12z run. 

[Madtown]

Seems pretty toasty here after Dec 7th or so. Please tell me different. Ice making meeting on Monday

[Timmy Supercell]

So, either this upcoming "cooldown" got warmer or is simply moved back a few days.. The 40's are now at the end of November here.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

So, either this upcoming "cooldown" got warmer or is simply moved back a few days.. The 40's are now at the end of November here.

Pretty certain the massive arctic blast fell off the table when the mega-phase bomb was deemed a modelling fake-out. Looks like a more traditional step-down into winter is back on the table. And it may be up and down to get there slowly. Tbh, I personally wasn't looking forward to plunging from mid-60's and pleasant right into the 20's with nasty WC's. Had a brief taste of that with the Halloween flip and it wasn't very nice tbh. From +20F departures to -13F departure in a matter of a few days at the end of Octoberrr:

[Black Hole]

We will see if the details actually work out or not, but I am still loving this 500 hPa height configuration for the last week of the month. Plenty of moisture and cold air around...just hoping they come together at the right time. Ensemble guidance continues to show a 20% chance of wintry weather but individual models showing wild swings run to run. 

[Black Hole]

The ECMWF weeklies (cointrol run here but the mean is similar just muted) show the same general pattern on average for the next 30 days so there will be additional chances for something.

It seems that towards the tail end of December their current forecast starts undercutting the ridge with a stronger pacific jet. It probably won't verify since its 5-6 weeks out but I suspect if it did there would be some good storms in the northern Plains. 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

We will see if the details actually work out or not, but I am still loving this 500 hPa height configuration for the last week of the month. Plenty of moisture and cold air around...just hoping they come together at the right time. Ensemble guidance continues to show a 20% chance of wintry weather but individual models showing wild swings run to run. 

My fear is that it's going to be open and positively tilted trough which won't produce much in my area.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 50/24 there was no rain or snow fall. In fact the sun was out 100% of the time that is rather rare in mid November. The highest wind speed was 33 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 74 was set in 1930 and the record low of 9 was set in 1986. The wettest was 1.33” in 1991 the most snow fall was in 2022 with 8.7” and the most on the ground was also in 2022 the H/L last year with all that snow was 25/18. At the current time I have clear skies and a temperature of 29 the overnight low here was 25. The official low at GRR was a much warmer 32. What a difference there can be on some clear nights away from the inter city.

Southern lower Michigan weather history.

SW Michigan.....1930: Record late-season warmth was across Lower Michigan with highs of 74 degrees at Grand Rapids and Lansing.

SE Michigan....1953, this started a two-day streak of record highs in Flint with a temperature of 70 degrees on the 19th and 68 degrees on the 20th. 

[chescowxman]

Many spots across the county had a frosty low in the 20's....the exceptions were some of the higher spots like where I am in East Nantmeal where we were no lower than 34 degrees this morning. Unfortunately, we are now almost 2" below normal rainfall for the month of November and 5.5" below our year to date average rain. The good news is that after the next coupled dry days we should see some beneficial rain moving in from southwest to northeast across the area on Tuesday afternoon. Most models agree on around 1.5" of rain before ending by daybreak on Wednesday. Below normal temps are likely for the rest of November.

Records for today: High 74 (1913) / Low 12 (1924) / Rain 1.74" (1988) / Snow 3.0" (1955)

[Tom]

On this beautiful Sunday morning, I started to analyze the past 4-6 weeks of weather we have endured across the CONUS and will try to figure out if we have completed, or about to complete LRC cycle #1.  There are clearly some parts that I believe have already started to cycle, but then there are other hints that we have to wait another week.  The massive ULL that forms and gets blocked up over Hudson Bay is throwing a wrench into predicting the LRC cycle bc it was a clear beginning part of LRC cycle #1 from OCT 8-12th.  Also, the storm system that raced up off the EC up into Nova Scotia looked very similar to the OCT 7th/8th system.  Needless to say, I'm still up in the air as it could be a shorter 42-44 day cycle or a loner one.  I'm curious to hear what Gary Lezak is thinking.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow chances really being scaled back for this Friday. Shouldn’t surprise me, but still disappointing. 

[bud2380]

Yeah the Black Friday system basically just dried up completely east of the Rockies. Looks like a non event here in Iowa. 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah the Black Friday system basically just dried up completely east of the Rockies. Looks like a non event here in Iowa. 

Yeah, I was hoping to get off to an early start for once. Guess not.

 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah the Black Friday system basically just dried up completely east of the Rockies. Looks like a non event here in Iowa. 

Yep. Really not seeing any true arctic intrusion into the CONUS besides a very brief period (1 day?) and it only comes far enough south to cover MI/WI really. 

In a way, I think this may bode well for the winter. Besides the Halloween blast, we are not getting the cold autumn that strong Nino's are known for around here. Typically, resident air masses that can support snow fall don't happen for SEMI until closer to Christmas, so we're about a month away at least around here. 

[GDR]

Wait a couple of weeks then things might turn

[jaster220]

One year ago this evening  visiblity was bliz-level at DTW:

It ripped hard and dropped about an inch in 30 minutes or maybe less. It was a brief wall of white as a LES streamer from the ongoing storm in WMI held together like a fire hose all the way across the state. Nothing remotely close going on so far this November.

[jaster220]

These cold pools just east/NE in ONT have been a recurring theme. After a slight over-achievement in the high temperature department, the mercury dropped like a rock after sunset. Was already readings in the 20s inside the UHI of the burbs an hour ago. 

[Clinton]

Light snow is showing up on the Euro for black Friday once again as a chunk of energy might hold together just long enough to give KC and mby our first inch of snow this season.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a sunny and mild late November day with a H/L of 52/32. There was no rain or snow fall and the sun was out 97% of the possible time. After several windy days it was a much calmer day with a the highest wind of just 13MPH. For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 71 was set in 1930 and the record low of 13 was set in 1969. The wettest day was in 1981 with 1.27” of that 4.4” fell as snow. The most snow fall of 11.5” fell in 2000. Last year the H/L was 27/18 there was 0.7” of snow fall and the 10” on the ground is the most for this date. Once again the overnight low was colder here in MBY then the official reading at GRR. Th low looks to have been 31 at the airport while here in MBY it fell to 26. At the current time it is cloudy and 33 both here and at the airport.

[westMJim]

Michigan weather history for November 20

Southwest Michigan 

1869: More than a foot of snow fell at Lansing, setting a record for the most ever recorded during the month of November.

2000: An intense lake effect snow squall dropped almost a foot of snow on Grand Rapids, setting a record for the most snow on a November day there

Southeast Michigan

1957, an F3 tornado hit Wayne County at 6:50 pm resulting in 12 injuries and 1 death and costing $250,000 in damages.

Other part of the US

1900: An unusual tornado outbreak in the Lower Mississippi Valley resulted in 73 deaths and extensive damage across Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

1985: Kate intensified to a major Category 3 Hurricane as she moved west of Key West, Florida with top winds of 115 mph and a minimum central pressure of 954 millibars or 28.17 inches of mercury. The next day Kate made landfall between Panama City and Apalachicola, Florida. Tides ran 8 to 10 feet above normal. Many power poles and lines were downed. Several roads were washed out.

2014: From the NWS Office in Buffalo, New York, “The epic November 17-19th 2014 lake effect event will be remembered as one of the most significant winter events in Buffalo’s snowy history.  Over 5 feet of snow fell over areas just east of Buffalo, with mere inches a few miles away to the north.   There were 13 fatalities with this storm, hundreds of major roof collapses and structural failures, 1000s of stranded motorists, and scattered food and gas shortages due to impassable roads.  Numerous trees also gave way due to the weight of the snow, causing isolated power outages.  While this storm was impressive on its own, a second lake effect event on Nov-19-20 dropped another 1-4 feet of snow over nearly the same area and compounded rescue and recovery efforts.  Storm totals from the two storms peaked at almost 7 feet, with many areas buried under 3-4 feet of dense snowpack by the end of the event.”

2015: The season’s first snow is Chicago’s largest November snowfall in 120 years starting on November 20 and ending on the 21st. The season’s first snowfall dropped as much as 17 inches across Chicago’s northern suburbs, and the total of 11.2 inches at O’Hare International Airport made it the largest November snowfall in 120 years

 

[gimmesnow]

I am conflicted. This time last year I was snowboarding, but the rest of the winter sucked. Yesterday I went out on my stand up jet ski for one last ride before it gets too cold. Hope the rest of the winter can make up for this, losing a few weeks at the start of the season is huge, especially if it doesn't start until holidays, because those times are so busy and ridiculous it's not worth going.

[chescowxman]

Today will be almost 10 degrees colder in spots compared to yesterday. A nice sunny fall day before rain moves in tomorrow morning. There is a chance some higher spots in NW Chesco could see a few flakes of snow or some ice pellets if the precipitation moves in fast enough in the AM. Either way it looks like between 1.5" to 2.0" of rain are possible tomorrow with chilly temps remaining in the low to mid 40's across the county. Below normal temps and dry weather look likely for the rest of the holiday week.

Records for today: High 75 (1985) / Low 16 (1951) / Rain 1.80 (1952) / Snow 0.8" (1937)

[Jayhawker85]

Is anyone going to take a stab at making their winter predictions since we are firmly entrenched in the new LRC and pretty seen how this winter will will/may play out 

[Tom]

Just now, Jayhawker85 said:

Is anyone going to take a stab at making their winter predictions since we are firmly entrenched in the new LRC and pretty seen how this winter will will/may play out 

I’m going to sometime this week as I’m still trying to figure out the cycle length.  That’s not to say we have pretty much seen where this years pattern anchor troughs and ridges have developed.  

[jaster220]

Clouds have pushed into lower MI a bit earlier than forecasted keeping temps from taking off like they did under sunny skies yesterday morning. Outside the UHI effects, mostly have 30s with the winds at some airports already frisky. A rather brisk day before the storm in progress.

[Andie]

A cold front arrives today with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest coverage of storms will be east of I-35, where there is a severe weather threat. The primary concerns will be damaging winds and hail. All east of DFW  

Cooler air will filter in for the middle of the week with highs only in the 50s. Typical Texas Thanksgiving week. They’re either a bit too warm or you’re freezing your face off.
Highs this week 50’s/60’s.  

[bud2380]

What's all this talk about an Oma-dome over Omaha??  LOL.  You can't make this up.  Total troll job by the GFS.  Really boring start to winter though.  Ideally we'd see the northern plains and northern MI, WI starting to see snow lay down, but even they aren't seeing anything.  

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Yeah, not real impressed with what the models are showing over the next ten or more days. It seems like more of the same, with the vast majority of the central US receiving less than a half inch of precip over that time period. 

Outside of some potential light flurries this coming weekend, pretty much hitting the snooze button again. Such a boring pattern we've been stuck in for so long. Just can't get any storm systems to get their act together in the slightest. 

[Black Hole]

What was looking like a promising stretch is down to just one storm that might do something, that'll be the 25-26th. For this storm we will have the closed low west of the area moving east as a deep trough digs down to the north. Previously it looked really cold, now it will only marginally be cold enough for snow. The storm track isn't ideal either with the core of the upper low passing well north of the area. So this will probably just end up being some cold rain if it does anything at all.

Then, as others noted, it looks pretty boring into early December. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro is back with a snowstorm this weekend for especially Central and Western Nebraska. We’ll have to see. 
 

[bud2380]

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro is back with a snowstorm this weekend for especially Central and Western Nebraska. We’ll have to see. 
 

Frustrating map.  Just completely dies out as it heads east.  I'd be happy for you and those in the western half of NE.  Would be a nice start to the snow season out there.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro is back with a snowstorm this weekend for especially Central and Western Nebraska. We’ll have to see. 
 

The model trends have been good with this today. The 18z GFS has brought it back as well.  I have a feeling the trends will continue to be good as the AO and NAO or going negative and that could help the trough be less positively tilted.

[james1976]

GFS keeps the trough going into next week with a potential clipper early next week. Nice to see the system showing back up for this weekend too.

[gimmesnow]

8 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Is anyone going to take a stab at making their winter predictions since we are firmly entrenched in the new LRC and pretty seen how this winter will will/may play out 

I'm not very good at these things but my random guess is a sputtering of winter until new years, january thaw, then brutal last 3 weeks of January and first 2 weeks of february with an early spring with some stat padding storms at the very end, like late march early april. I think it's going to be one of those winters where there's like two weeks of absolute winter paradise and the rest is really hit or miss. But I hope it's cold enough the snow can stay around and the ski hills can not go through too much freeze thaw.

[CentralNebWeather]

35 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The model trends have been good with this today. The 18z GFS has brought it back as well.  I have a feeling the trends will continue to be good as the AO and NAO or going negative and that could help the trough be less positively tilted.

Looks very similar indeed. Will be fun to see how it evolves this week. We are home for Thanksgiving, so don’t have to worry about any travel concerns. Turkey, family, football, and snow. Sounds great. 

[jaster220]

@tStacsh

GEM hinting at a little action this coming Sunday night wrt LES

[Andie]

We had a gorgeous day today with a High of 72, sunny, picture perfect.  It will repeat tomorrow. 57 High 35 Low 

Wed, Thurs, Fri  will change up with Highs of 58-60 and Lows of 38-42.  

Rain free, but cloudy.  
Could be a lot worse.  We’ll take it!!

Happy Thanksgiving !

[Northland09]

5 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

I'm not very good at these things but my random guess is a sputtering of winter until new years, january thaw, then brutal last 3 weeks of January and first 2 weeks of february with an early spring with some stat padding storms at the very end, like late march early april. I think it's going to be one of those winters where there's like two weeks of absolute winter paradise and the rest is really hit or miss. But I hope it's cold enough the snow can stay around and the ski hills can not go through too much freeze thaw.

I'm not very good at predicting what could happen either, but I'm going to compare this winter (at least for MN) to that of the 2012-2013 winter season. Everything is mimicking the same as that fall/winter so far. So with that being said, we're going to have a snowstorm or two in December, barely anything in January, and we'll get slammed in February and March. Temps those years were above average as well. As long as we have a white Christmas, I'll be happy. Anything after that is a bonus!

[Clinton]

0z models continuing the trend for a wintery storm this weekend, the Euro was the first to get back on the bandwagon and hopefully it's 0z run will continue that. The ICON, GFS, CMC and UKMET with the GFS is running a little warmer than the other models.