November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Can someone look up 2008? If it was a La Nina or El Nino year. I'm at work and can't look it up. I have an idea but I need to know what it was. Thanks 

La Nina... from mid 2007 through mid 2009.

[Phishy Wx]

good point of reference for ENSO years

 

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[Kayla]

Now things are getting a bit more interesting!

[Phishy Wx]

rejoice Phil!

 

 

 

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

rejoice Phil!

 

 

 

From my view, our "window" this year is from Thanksgiving through the end of December then torch thereafter.

[Slushy Inch]

34 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Can someone look up 2008? If it was a La Nina or El Nino year. I'm at work and can't look it up. I have an idea but I need to know what it was. Thanks 

La nina

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This progression looks pretty interesting...

Could maybe see some backdoor cold IF the blocking across the north verifies as strong as what is shown here.  

[SnowWillarrive]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No we are not.

Krakatoa was a VEI 6 eruption. Such eruptions have a recurrence interval of 50–100 years. There have been VEI 6 eruptions in 1883 (Krakatoa), 1902 (Santa Maria), 1912 (Novarupta), 1991 (Pinatubo), and 2022 (Hunga Tonga). More, not less, frequent than the odds would dictate.

Going one up the scale, VEI 7 eruptions happen on average every 500–1,000 years. The last one of those was Tambora in 1815.

If we are due for anything, it is a quiet period.

Nah Yellowstone is going to give us the greatest winter

[MossMan]

December 2008…I’m still drooling all these years later.

From the 13th to the 26th we had snowfall basically every day to every other day during that stretch, and a low of -3F at our old place west of Smokey Point and at 280ft. Since I haven’t posted my buried old Jetta for a while, here you go! This was taken on 12/25/08! 

[ShawniganLake]

Kind of a bummer that the volcano that’s becoming active in Iceland right now isn’t big enough to cause an ice age when it blows. 

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

December 2008…I’m still drooling all these years later.

From the 13th to the 26th we had snowfall basically every day to every other day during that stretch, and a low of -3F at our old place west of Smokey Point and at 280ft. Since I haven’t posted my buried old Jetta for a while, here you go! This was taken on 12/25/08! 

Shawnigan Lake had 63” of snow between December 12th and January 4th that winter.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

[antipex]

Forecast bust. Was supposed to rain this morning, but it’s snowing hard and 30, and accumulating fast.

[Kayla]

12z Euro isn't great. Everything is back to shifting east.

[Skagit Weather]

23 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z Euro isn't great. Everything is back to shifting east.

Yeah, at the moment it looks like a remarkably quiet back half of the month.

[Omegaraptor]

33 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, at the moment it looks like a remarkably quiet back half of the month.

Bachelor opening day scheduled for 11/24.

Nope, not happening.

[MossMan]

Everett ICU view. Hopefully my dad will have a non ICU view soon…Again. 
 

Edited November 15, 2023 by MossMan

[RentonHill]

Noticeable shift downward in the sghetti average for the intermediate vs yesterday. 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Noticeable shift downward in the sghetti average for the intermediate vs yesterday. 

It’s coming! Unfortunately not in time for Thanksgiving. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is really happening folx. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS puts the focus of the troughing offshore again as we go towards the end of the month and into December.

[Phishy Wx]

El No No

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The very end of the 12z GFS was kind of interesting. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Wow, the GEFS and the EC ensemble are finally on the same page for once.

Brief cooldown next week followed by a warming trend for the end of the month. Some weak systems should manage to bust through the ridge so at least we'll get some rain and a bit of mountain snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

EPS puts the focus of the troughing offshore again as we go towards the end of the month and into December.

This is going to retrograde at some point and allow for delivery of said good. 

[AlTahoe]

It looks like this will be a snowless Oct and Nov for Tahoe at lake level. The last shutouts were 1995-1996, 1992 - 1993. 

Kind of weird for an El Nino year. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

It looks like this will be a snowless Oct and Nov for Tahoe at lake level. The last shutouts were 1995-1996, 1992 - 1993. 

Kind of weird for an El Nino year. 

Those were decent winters up here! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Those were decent winters up here! 

I was going to say, probably the two best winters of the 90s!

[Skagit Weather]

16 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

It looks like this will be a snowless Oct and Nov for Tahoe at lake level. The last shutouts were 1995-1996, 1992 - 1993. 

Kind of weird for an El Nino year. 

What's the average snowfall for lake level in October and November? The only information I could find was for Tahoe City which looks like on average it picks up about a foot by the end of November.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is really happening folx. 

When has the clown range GFS not come through?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

What's the average snowfall for lake level in October and November? The only information I could find was for Tahoe City which looks like on average it picks up about a foot by the end of November.

Tahoe City is basically at lake level.

[AlTahoe]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Those were decent winters up here! 

Both ended up being great here as well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

Both ended up being great here as well. 

I was pretty young, but 92-93 was an incredible winter in the Willamette Valley. Kind of a roided up 2016-17. If I recall there were a lot of systems rolling into California that winter. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Bachelor opening day scheduled for 11/24.

Nope, not happening.

Looking like a pretty depressing start. Let's hope Dec and Jan can provide something good for them. Has anybody done any winter hiking up there in dud winters? I've gotta imagine it's pretty beautiful.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looking like a pretty depressing start. Let's hope Dec and Jan can provide something good for them. Has anybody done any winter hiking up there in dud winters? I've gotta imagine it's pretty beautiful.

That's a good question. Maybe a good time to hike up to Marion Lake or something like that. 

I did hike to the top of Table Rock in January, 2014, this was a few weeks after the big December blast, but even at nearly 5K' there was very little snow. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was pretty young, but 92-93 was an incredible winter in the Willamette Valley. Kind of a roided up 2016-17. If I recall there were a lot of systems rolling into California that winter. 

Got my license in late November 1992…I got lots of winter driving experience in my 1975 El Camino! 

[Skagit Weather]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Tahoe City is basically at lake level.

Yeah, but I was wondering if it was different for South Lake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Got my license in late November 1992…I got lots of winter driving experience in my 1975 El Camino! 

You were twice my age back then. 

[AlTahoe]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, but I was wondering if it was different for South Lake.

On average we get about 10% less than Tahoe City in South lake. Although some Winters like last year and 2010-2011 we get more. I had 330" at my house last year and Tahoe city had 321"

We usually get a couple storms in Oct and Nov with average being around 18" for both months. Mt biking through Thanksgiving is pretty rare but it is what I will be doing next week. Come on cold and snow!

[Cold Snap]

Had a low of 28 this morning.