January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Slushy Inch]

NAM is in. Cold air coming in little stronger into B.C. Just 4 days away.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

The problem is that the last few model runs have been NEAR perfect. Which means that there really are only two options: stay the same or pull back.

There is not a lot of realistic improvement next week. OF COURSE the block could be stronger, the arctic air could be colder, and the precip could be juicier... things could always technically get better, but realistically I think we're near the edge of greatness. Meaning the realistic best case scenario is staying where we are.

It's like there are only a few options for improvement and infinite options for collapsing.

Just setting the expectations as we're 30 mins from a fresh GFS run. LOL.

This thought has crossed my mind.  I'm glad we are in the one week window now though.  Makes it way more likely to hold than if it was 10 days.

[CloudJunkie]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Now that is a holy **** stat is if ever there was one.

Now combine that with the 116 burger that Portland got in June 2021. Mediterranean climate types don't play around.

[smerfylicious]

30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My wife family runs a local pest control company. They don't make you sign contracts like this. I don't know if they service that far up on highway 2 tho. I'll ask!

You're too kind to check. I thought it was an okay deal, but I'm not versed at all in the pest control sphere lol

2 years is a long time, but...gotta look out for the health of my kids and wife, and this is a problem that seems to be spiraling out of my ability to fix.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

NAM is in. Cold air coming in little stronger into B.C. Just 4 days away.

Nice.  How well the first one does could have some significance to what happens later.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

NAM is in. Cold air coming in little stronger into B.C. Just 4 days away.

Well hell we're in NAM range now? Here we go!

6z NAM in 4 hours 30 minutes

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This thought has crossed my mind.  I'm glad we are in the one week window now though.  Makes it way more likely to hold than if it was 10 days.

It's not a bad thing. It is just something to keep in mind. Expectation setting is important. Let's hope this just continues to get reinforced and maybe even strengthen a tad.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

It's not a bad thing. It is just something to keep in mind. Expectation setting is important. Let's hope this just continues to get reinforced and maybe even strengthen a tad.

Expectation setting is most definitely not important for true weather weenies, someone may have to consider pulling your membership card sir!!

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

The problem is that the last few model runs have been NEAR perfect. Which means that there really are only two options: stay the same or pull back.

There is not a lot of realistic improvement next week. OF COURSE the block could be stronger, the arctic air could be colder, and the precip could be juicier... things could always technically get better, but realistically I think we're near the edge of greatness. Meaning the realistic best case scenario is staying where we are.

It's like there are only a few options for improvement and infinite options for collapsing.

Just setting the expectations as we're 30 mins from a fresh GFS run. LOL.

Most room for improvement is snow. It can always be snowier

[Ken in Wood Village]

I just remembered something. IF we get a snowstorm on the 11th, it will be 7 years and one day to the date when the Portland area had that big snowstorm. We had 8" of snow by the next day. 

The only reason why I remembered it was because earlier that day (1/10/2017) I needed to call an ambulance to get my mom to the hospital because she was really sick. I knew there was going to be a lot of moisture coming that night and I didn't want to try to get her to the hospital in a snowstorm.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Now that is a holy **** stat is if ever there was one.

Another one is that Eugene has a higher max 3 day snow total than New York, Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I just remembered something. IF we get a snowstorm on the 11th, it will be 7 years and one day to the date when the Portland area had that big snowstorm. We had 8" of snow by the next day. 

The only reason why I remembered it was because earlier that day (1/10/2017) I needed to call an ambulance to get my mom to the hospital because she was really sick. I knew there was going to be a lot of moisture coming that night and I didn't want to try to get her to the hospital in a snowstorm.

That storm was amazing. Had about 12-13" here, most of it in a couple hours, it was wonderful. And it lasted for a week.

[ShawniganLake]

On track for about 1000 pages this month and not a single flake has fallen. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Another one is that Eugene has a higher max 3 day snow total than New York, Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis

Victoria has a higher recorded 24-hour snowfall than Toronto or Montreal.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

You're too kind to check. I thought it was an okay deal, but I'm not versed at all in the pest control sphere lol

2 years is a long time, but...gotta look out for the health of my kids and wife, and this is a problem that seems to be spiraling out of my ability to fix.

If they don’t get rid of ’em within about six weeks, they are doing something wrong.

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If they don’t get rid of ’em within about six weeks, they are doing something wrong.

Yeah, I tried for about a month. Could've put more effort into it if I wasn't working so much OT. Seemed like everything I was doing was ineffective. Desperate times...I guess they come out quarterly to check exterior and interior traps that they'll install for the 2 year timeframe.

[RentonHill]

ICON looks like its gonna be bangin

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

ICON looks like its gonna be bangin

temps vs 12z at hr 126 or whatever

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Somewhat off topic, but get a load of this recent quote from cliff mass.  How he's still on UW's payroll is beyond me.

Quote

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated there’s a more than 99% chance that 2023 was the hottest year on record according to the recorded global average temperature, beating out 2016, the previous leader. Now climate scientists are claiming 2024 will be even hotter.

“There’s some people claiming this was the warmest year in 125,000 years, which I don’t think they can say that,” University of Washington Meteorologist Cliff Mass said in response to the claim on The John and Shari Show. “It is the hottest year for the period that we have observational records; thermometers and stuff like that. So that’s going back maybe 70-80 years.”

So they didn't have thermometers back in 1950, Cliff?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

44 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Your comment on ensembles being weaker and less capable than deterministic numerical weather prediction is not true. Ensembles have much better skill in the extended range than operational runs. The ops runs start to have better skill within 72 hours.

What I meant by that is the ops are more capable then each individual ensemble by itself, obviously most the time all of the ensembles combined and their trend is much, MUCH more important then the ops, but occasionally most of the ensembles aren't able to catch on. Maybe I'm wrong I dont completely know how it works, I think I'm just wishcasting

[Deweydog]

0z is running!

[SeanNyberg]

Everyone holds their breath as OOz GFS takes its sweet time.

You can hear a pin drop.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Somewhat off topic, but get a load of this recent quote from cliff mass.  How he's still on UW's payroll is beyond me.

So they didn't have thermometers back in 1950, Cliff?

He is sloppy with the dates, but his point remains the same. While I don’t like how he is using the point, he is right. We don’t know the precise climate 100k years ago.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Somewhat off topic, but get a load of this recent quote from cliff mass.  How he's still on UW's payroll is beyond me.

So they didn't have thermometers back in 1950, Cliff?

Obviously thats a pretty stupid statement by cliff that deserved to be corrected, but I just assume he meant widespread thermometers across most of the planet.

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

ICON looks like its gonna be bangin

uh oh maybe not

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

temps vs 12z at hr 126 or whatever

 

That’s actually a decent improvement.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

31 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

You're too kind to check. I thought it was an okay deal, but I'm not versed at all in the pest control sphere lol

2 years is a long time, but...gotta look out for the health of my kids and wife, and this is a problem that seems to be spiraling out of my ability to fix.

I once fired a pest control company because all they did was set traps.  I could have done that!  The one I hired did a thorough inspection, closed and sealed every little gap that mice could get through, and we haven't had one since.  Ours were getting in largely through the basement, where they can dig holes (the crawl space doesn't have a floor), and they used the insulation to nest.  Even had a small depression in the garage where the furnace say and it was enough for them to get through.  No danger of the furnace crashing down, but they sealed that gap too.

Don't settle for a company that just puts down traps.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Onto the 00z now. This feels like the big moment of truth.

 

PRAY FOR SNOW

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go!

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

uh oh maybe not

I don’t recall the 12z being awesome. This looks ok 

[Tanis Leach]

29 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Another one is that Eugene has a higher max 3 day snow total than New York, Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis

Just goes to show if the continental and marine air mix, like what can happen in the PNW, the potential becomes higher than any other city. Now getting those factors to set up is an entirely different story.

 

And curious, what are the other cities totals since I don't look at them that often?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's pretty much a sure thing now. The only real question is whether the snow will be measured in feet or yards. My flight out is on the evening of the 10th and the region gets buried on the 11th, should be back to see it all melted a couple weeks later. It's almost like Mother Nature taunting me. If you want to ensure the best January event of the century for this region be sure to schedule a trip mid-January during a strong El Nino after 7 consecutive winters with Arctic events . My wife wants to drag me to SE Asia next New Years, get ready for a Dec 1996 repeat next winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Somewhat off topic, but get a load of this recent quote from cliff mass.  How he's still on UW's payroll is beyond me.

Tenure.

It’s generally a good thing because it stops politically-motivated reprisals, but it can allow nutty professors to remain indefinitely.

DeSantis has attacked tenure in Florida big time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[Kolk1604]

00z ICON 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Somewhat off topic, but get a load of this recent quote from cliff mass.  How he's still on UW's payroll is beyond me.

So they didn't have thermometers back in 1950, Cliff?

He's saying that we can't tell if it's the hottest year in the last however many of thousands of years since we obviously didn't have thermometers way back when.  And thermometers have changed a lot, so it isn't as simple as looking at numbers.  There are also factors in the past, like time of day issues.  Today's thermometers take temps 24 hours a day, every minute. Back then it was whenever someone went out and looked, which may not have been at the hottest time of day (or the coldest).  And of course we use satellites now, which obviously weren't used in the past.  UHI is a factor today, not as much back then.  

The issue is more complicated than most people realize.  

  

[selkirks]

11 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Obviously thats a pretty stupid statement by cliff that deserved to be corrected, but I just assume he meant widespread thermometers across most of the planet.

It's typical pedantry from him, though, and likely in service of a political agenda. He doesn't deserve nearly as much attention in this region as he gets.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t recall the 12z being awesome. This looks ok 

As the Icon goes that's pretty major. 

[SeanNyberg]

Icon looks fine.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Icon looks fine