January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This will mark the beginning of the pull back. 

 

I'm returning the snow shovel I bought yesterday. It's over!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Blocking trend for OP last couple of runs. Ensembles look good so far.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

It’s over.

- Everything is trending north and east

- The surface is too warm

- It’ll be too dry when it can snow

- No meaningful overrunning event

 

I think a lot of people are just joking around.  Maybe.

[RayRay]

The website is back ! yay!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks @iFred 

00z GEFS a bit colder. Day 8.5 850s The Dalles/Columbia Basin backdoor modified arctic blast. If there is east wind that results in a low level arctic blast for PDX.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

32 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Rod Hill is onboard. He’s calling for rain switching over to snow next Wednesday.

Rod Hills forecast crashed the forums!

[Slushy Inch]

Any doubts? Just remember how awesome the 12z euro, the best model was. Hope we get a repeat. Also what crashed the website?

[Snownerd3000]

Not sure if it was shared yet but the Spire is orgasmic. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Because the website was down, that means the next run will be amazing.

 

Gonna be the best run yet, I AM excited for the 00z euro 

[Kolk1604]

So GEFS is much colder 

[SpaceRace22]

The 00z GEFS are significantly improved you dinguses.

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Not sure if it was shared yet but the Spire is orgasmic. 

That was the 12z

[Mercurial]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The 00z GEFS are significantly improved you dinguses.

sir this is a wendy's

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Any doubts? Just remember how awesome the 12z euro, the best model was. Hope we get a repeat. Also what crashed the website?

Furries

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The 00z GEFS are significantly improved you dinguses.

4 degrees colder here then the last run

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

That was the 12z

Lol

[iFred]

Man, I really need to migrate off of MySQL.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we had a forum crash.  This is getting real.  Very nice to note the GEM ensemble is colder than the 12z and the GEFS is colder than the 18z.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes until King EURO! I hope it follows a similar progression as the Canadian model which handles the high pressure cell over the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutians much better keeping the energy pushing off Kamchatka further west.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Man, I really need to migrate off of MySQL.

Lol.  I thought the outage was a troll after your last comment since some took it seriously.

Postgres instead?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like we had a forum crash.  This is getting real.  Very nice to note the GEM ensemble is colder than the 12z and the GEFS is colder than the 18z.

More like scheduled maintenance.

[snow_wizard]

Compared to the normal amount of variation going into these this thing looks great to me.  Details will keep changing so hang on!

[ShawniganLake]

34 minutes ago, MWG said:

It's like I haven't finished reading a page and there's already a new one. Can't keep up! 

I never even bother trying to keep up when it’s like this.  Just skip ahead a few pages.  People end up posting the same map that’s already been posted 3 other times because they can’t keep up. 

[The Winter Warlock]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Man, I really need to migrate off of MySQL.

Needs more PostgreSQL

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

5 minutes until King EURO! I hope it follows a similar progression as the Canadian model which handles the high pressure cell over the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutians much better keeping the energy pushing off Kamchatka further west.

We're to the point now where even the "bad" runs are good.  Nice place to be.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I never even bother trying to keep up when it’s like this.  Just skip ahead a few pages.  People end up posting the same map that’s already been posted 3 other times because they can’t keep up. 

Exactly lol. I try to keep up but after 10 minutes of constant refreshing I just give up

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Because the website was down, that means the next run will be amazing.

 

Gonna be the best run yet, I AM excited for the 00z euro 

[Phil]

Recent trends were so good that typical LR noise is being interpreted as a rug pull.  

Real lesson here is OP runs beyond D7 are for entertainment purposes only. Ensembles provide much more insight. 

[MWG]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I never even bother trying to keep up when it’s like this.  Just skip ahead a few pages.  People end up posting the same map that’s already been posted 3 other times because they can’t keep up. 

Yeah, I do skip the pages when I can't read while at work. lol

[SeanNyberg]

8 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The 00z GEFS are significantly improved you dinguses.

Most of us knew this. But some of y'all need SpaceRace to hit you over the head with it AND whip out the all-time burn "Dingus!"
Remember... if your dingus burns, you should go see a doctor and call all of your recent FLINGS.

[snow_wizard]

PV split is basically a done deal now.  Every run of the GFS and ECMWF shows it.

[SnarkyGoblin]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The 00z GEFS are significantly improved you dinguses.

Makes sense.  Wasn't the 12z op a significant outlier, even with all the other cold members?  Things meeting in the middle?  Or maybe just a single run none of us should obsess too much over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So I missed the drama of the 00z runs. My wife got home and wanted to have marital relations. Then the forum was down. What a night. 
 

Thoughts:

GEM looks historic. 
 

GFS looks like something that might actually happen, but definitely a step back. Would deliver some decent snow above 1000’ down here, but definitely disappointing for valley folks. We ll see where this goes. Really could go either way at this point, but some chilly weather seems likely. It’s always a roller coaster here. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, westcoastexpat said:

The ops run is definitely in a world of its own 

Speaking of inflection points, this is one of the better examples I’ve seen. They are dangerous.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Recent trends were so good that typical LR noise is being interpreted as a rug pull.  

Real lesson here is OP runs beyond D7 are for entertainment purposes only. Ensembles provide much more insight. 

This is actually fluctuating in a much narrower range than usual.  Good sign me thinks.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

And the run has begun, hour 0. Here we go!

 

[Mercurial]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Man, I really need to migrate off of MySQL.

dude just migrate to k8s it'll fix everything

/sarcasm

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So I missed the drama of the 00z runs. My wife got home and wanted to have marital relations. Then the forum was down. What a night. 
 

It's really nice that everyone is providing updates on their sex life now.

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Speaking of inflection points, this is one of the better examples I’ve seen. They are dangerous.

God I was looking for this chart just now.  Gave up trying to figure out what page it was on. Really struck me how different the lr op was compared to the rest.

[SeanNyberg]

shhhhh... the King is waking up.