January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Ken in Wood Village]

What a dramatic change from the 12Z run to the 18Z GFS run.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

If the Euro is showing what it shows now in a week, then I will personally pay for your next Tri-Cities getaway....

I wonder how professional Mets would react. Maybe go into denial?

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its been a long time... summers have been way too warm lately for those trips! 

 

Next coolish summer in 2046 after all the volcanoes on the planet go off at once.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I wonder how professional Mets would react. Maybe go into denial?

Well you see..... ground temperatures are in the 50's which artic air can't overcome...... 

That would be the response lol

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I wasn't a model nerd back then, but is 2008 an exception to that rule? And you would think that would change with time and all these upgrades. 

No idea.   I can only remember recent event lead ups.   Matt is your source for those kind of details.   He remembers literally everything!  

[SnowySeeker50]

NWS Seattle finally agrees something is possible

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I wasn't a model nerd back then, but is 2008 an exception to that rule? And you would think that would change with time and all these upgrades. 

This is what I was thinking.  2008 was pretty consistent leading up to the event, both with little waffling as well as model agreement.  But that was a long time ago, I might be wrong.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Well, i guess that would be right on parr.

I guess we should all probably wish upon a starr.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@Deweydog I'm interested in your thoughts on this. How are you feeling at this point? 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@Deweydog I'm interested in your thoughts on this. How are you feeling at this point? 

 

I was going to ask the same thing.  

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I wonder how professional Mets would react. Maybe go into denial?

Mark Nelsen would write the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts a very strongly worded letter. And suspend Jesse from his blog.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea.   I can only remember recent event lead ups.   Matt is your source for those kind of details.   He remembers literally everything!  

That thing ended up being locked and cocked from about eight days out, at least with the initial shot. Granted it was a more stable evolution with a flat ridge retrogression. It did waffle with the persistence aspect as it struggled with the reload quite a bit.  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Mark Nelsen would write the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts a very strongly worded letter. And suspend Jesse from his blog.

Realistically it would probably be, “we don’t know how cold it will be until it gets here, models may be overdoing the cold”

[BLI snowman]

2008 definitely had some hiccups along the way, although the large scale pattern didn't waver too much. I think about 6-7 days out was the biggest rug tug. 

[CloudJunkie]

11 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

What a dramatic change from the 12Z run to the 18Z GFS run.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

31 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Blue getting darker

Red getting darker in the 6–10 day range for most of the East Coast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

2008 definitely had some hiccups along the way, although the large scale pattern didn't waver too much. I think about 6-7 days out was the biggest rug tug. 

Oh yeah, I remember that one. I recall the December 1998 blast being one that showed up in the models 7-10 days out and for the most part stayed pretty consistent, which is amazing given the technology of the day. 

I always felt the February 2014 event kind of came out of nowhere, I could be wrong, but it didn't seem like there were strong signs for an arctic blast until maybe 5-7 days out, and then the snow storm aspect of that was very very late developing. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Realistically it would probably be, “we don’t know how cold it will be until it gets here, models may be overdoing the cold”

If the Euro numbers stayed steady then even the national media would be hyping us up.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

If the Euro numbers stayed steady then even the national media would be hyping us up.

That would be fun

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, I remember that one. I recall the December 1998 blast being one that showed up in the models 7-10 days out and for the most part stayed pretty consistent, which is amazing given the technology of the day. 

I always felt the February 2014 event kind of came out of nowhere, I could be wrong, but it didn't seem like there were strong signs for an arctic blast until maybe 5-7 days out, and then the snow storm aspect of that was very very late developing. 

I'm checking out the comments on Mark's blog for Feb 2014. Even on Tuesday that Thursday snowstorm hadn't shown up on most models

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@Deweydog I'm interested in your thoughts on this. How are you feeling at this point? 

 

The nino aspect has me pretty wary even from a broad perspective. Feels like one that could disappear into a very diffuse pattern pretty easily as I think it’s harder to pinpoint players when you’re taking a rather diffuse pattern and trying to make it Arctic. It KIND OF reminds me of January 1996 in that we transitioned from a cool NW flow into an Arctic pattern, one which at the time at least was VERY poorly handled by the models. Phil has been throwing out what I think will be the “event” catch phrase - “inflection point.” Timing and triggers will be everything in the mid range as the pattern tries to go meridional.  Go big or go home…

 

[SpaceRace22]

Man, I just woke up (I work the actual night shift IRL) and skimmed through the 12z and 18z runs while still in bed. That was quite the rollercoaster. Hopefully nobody jumped off a bridge this morning!

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, I remember that one. I recall the December 1998 blast being one that showed up in the models 7-10 days out and for the most part stayed pretty consistent, which is amazing given the technology of the day. 

I always felt the February 2014 event kind of came out of nowhere, I could be wrong, but it didn't seem like there were strong signs for an arctic blast until maybe 5-7 days out, and then the snow storm aspect of that was very very late developing. 

That was the event that made me really start to focus more on learning the models. I recall it going from a dry potential arctic outbreak to that sort of 3 back to back snow events pretty late in the game. I think there was even a day where I woke up to Mark's blog with a headline IF YOU JUST GOT UP DO NOT GO TO WORK

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

NWS Seattle finally agrees something is possible

How much signal do you need for a major snow event when we have had runs show well over a fukin foot in Seattle. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

I'm checking out the comments on Mark's blog for Feb 2014. Even on Tuesday that Thursday snowstorm hadn't shown up on most models

I remember driving home from work the day before the snow event (Wednesday?), and it was cold but also INCREDIBLY clear, like about as clear as I have ever seen it in the Willamette Valley. Just spectacularly clear skies, and thinking no freaking way is this really going to happen, and sure enough by 8am the next morning it was snowing. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, I remember that one. I recall the December 1998 blast being one that showed up in the models 7-10 days out and for the most part stayed pretty consistent, which is amazing given the technology of the day. 

I always felt the February 2014 event kind of came out of nowhere, I could be wrong, but it didn't seem like there were strong signs for an arctic blast until maybe 5-7 days out, and then the snow storm aspect of that was very very late developing. 

Yeah the 1998 one was pretty well forecast for the time. The overrunning event evolution came in early though, the runs 3-4 days out were still showing it hitting hard on Christmas Day. Slightly devastating. 

The 2014 snows were pretty deformation driven, and wound up lifting way north of where any of the modeling had them. I think the 7-8" that hit Clark County on the 6th had been a goose egg about 72 hours out.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Groundhog said:

True. Or, we take what’s happening in our own backyard and inadvertently generalize for the region as time goes on.  The snow the PNW got on Feb 8, 2019 left us in Canada envious. Not a good memory up here since that event was a snowless, dry, rippin’ outflow. Conversely, while many in the PNE got warm-nosed, the night of Dec 19-20, 2022 was a near blizzard with almost a foot of wind-driven snow and temperatures of about -10C. 

So true! Since I'm in  semi arid/warm nose spot sometimes I get grumpy when I get 2 inches and someone on the coast where there's more moisture gets 5 and beneficial climo. But that's more than some people get when they are skunked. I love both of these posts. Thank you also @SilverFallsAndrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

The nino aspect has me pretty wary even from a broad perspective. Feels like one that could disappear into a very diffuse pattern pretty easily as I think it’s harder to pinpoint players when you’re taking a rather diffuse pattern and trying to make it Arctic. It KIND OF reminds me of January 1996 in that we transitioned from a cool NW flow into an Arctic pattern, one which at the time at least was VERY poorly handled by the models. Phil has been throwing out what I think will be the “event” catch phrase - “inflection point.” Timing and triggers will be everything in the mid range as the pattern tries to go meridional.  Go big or go home…

 

This makes a lot of sense to me. January 1996 has been showing up quite a bit on the analog charts, so if things work out that could be a good guide. That one was pretty interesting, I was not yet following the models, but I remember a few days of chilly NW flow, then the snow event the day before the Super Bowl, and then FINALLY the arctic frontal passage on the 28th? 

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How much signal do you need for a major snow event when we have had runs show well over a fukin foot in Seattle. 

NWS Seattle will only warn for snow after several inches have been measured by a trusted spotter or DOT camera. NWS Portland will issue warnings whenever the air smells funny!

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How much signal do you need for a major snow event when we have had runs show well over a fukin foot in Seattle. 

They say that every single time even when there are feet shown in the models, I have never understood that other than they don’t want people getting all twitchy and buying cases of toilet paper and bread. 

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

And here we all are being a bunch of a**hats rooting for sub zero weather lol 

Not as much as people rooting for windstorms. jk But seriously that's the one weather type I really don't like.

 

Currently at 40F here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Yeah the 1998 one was pretty well forecast for the time. The overrunning event evolution came in early though, the runs 3-4 days out were still showing it hitting hard on Christmas Day. Slightly devastating. 

The 2014 snows were pretty deformation driven, and wound up lifting way north of where any of the modeling had them. I think the 7-8" that hit Clark County on the 6th had been a goose egg about 72 hours out.

The end of the 1998 blast was a huge bummer for folks in the mid-valley. We mixed out with pretty much nothing but a skiff of snow on the 24th. To have that kind of airmass go out with such a whimper was a pretty tough pill to swallow. Especially after throwing up a goose egg in January 1998. I know TWL talks about it a lot, but between 1/27/96 and 12/29/03 there were essentially no significant snow events in most of the Willamette Valley. The only exception being the one in December 2000 that was pretty good west of I-5.

[MossMan]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Not as much as people rooting for windstorms. jk But seriously that's the one weather type I really don't like.

 

Currently at 40F here.

I want both a massive snowstorm and windstorm at the same time! 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not as much as people rooting for windstorms. jk But seriously that's the one weather type I really don't like.

 

Currently at 40F here.

Windstorms are awesome!

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The nino aspect has me pretty wary even from a broad perspective. Feels like one that could disappear into a very diffuse pattern pretty easily as I think it’s harder to pinpoint players when you’re taking a rather diffuse pattern and trying to make it Arctic. It KIND OF reminds me of January 1996 in that we transitioned from a cool NW flow into an Arctic pattern, one which at the time at least was VERY poorly handled by the models. Phil has been throwing out what I think will be the “event” catch phrase - “inflection point.” Timing and triggers will be everything in the mid range as the pattern tries to go meridional.  Go big or go home…

 

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah the 1998 one was pretty well forecast for the time. The overrunning event evolution came in early though, the runs 3-4 days out were still showing it hitting hard on Christmas Day. Slightly devastating. 

The 2014 snows were pretty deformation driven, and wound up lifting way north of where any of the modeling had them. I think the 7-8" that hit Clark County on the 6th had been a goose egg about 72 hours out.

2014 was wild. It was my first winter up at 1500’ on skyline near scappoose. I was working on the house before we moved in.  For 3 straight days it stayed 15 degrees or cooler. I couldn’t believe how much of a different world it was up there.

[Winterdog]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not as much as people rooting for windstorms. jk But seriously that's the one weather type I really don't like.

 

Currently at 40F here.

I'm with you on that sentiment brother.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy said:

2014 was wild. It was my first winter up at 1500’ on skyline near scappoose. I was working on the house before we moved in.  For 3 straight days it stayed 15 degrees or cooler. I couldn’t believe how much of a different world it was up there.

I can't remember how many years you were up there, I seem to recall you were up there during 2016-17, were you up there in 18-19? 

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A few pics from December 2021!

Dec 30, 2021 I had 7 inches (maybe even 7.5 but I was conservative as it started getting windy as the system tapered off).

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not as much as people rooting for windstorms. jk But seriously that's the one weather type I really don't like.

 

Currently at 40F here.

I don't mind them so much in my current location. new house, no large trees and underground utilities so not bad other than my fence blowing down