January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow that’s a lot of snow.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

If this situation played out, I'm assuming someone would get buried where the arctic front slows/stalls?

Yes. Randy.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This pattern cannot be more locked in.

Incoming pacific low??

[Doinko]

Still snowing Sunday morning!

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The scale of this is almost too incredible to put into words. There's nothing on the horizon to bump the cold air out at all. 

Oh shoot you're right. This runs got my vote. More snowy, less cold but more than cold enough, sign me up!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Guys, it’s definitely coming. Nature is tripping balls rn.  

 

Phil checking in from the 30,000 ft/round of Covid club.

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This pattern cannot be more locked in.

Just look at that! A freaking rex block to the west of us. Un-f***ing believable. 

[iFred]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phil checking in from the 30,000 ft/round of Covid club.

Can't get COVID from wifu body pillows.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This pattern cannot be more locked in.

Shades of Jan 1980?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Just look at that! A freaking rex block to the west of us. Un-f***ing believable. 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Just look at that! A freaking rex block to the west of us. Un-f***ing believable. 

Makes me think where that Aleutian energy is coming from that does the undercutting. Outflow from Haida Gwaii over a "warm" GoA can't be it, can it?

[DeepFriedEgg]

At face value this would be absolutely incredible but it's a bit too precarious for my liking. Well now I'm really nit picking LOL

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m reliving a nightmare 

Complete nightmare for Oregon... total dud. 

 

[LowerGarfield]

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1084011933038372&set=a.736649561107946

Daylight and sun really increases due to our latitude. Enjoy this while it lasts.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 10. Strong frigid offshore flow.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know! You’d think. I’d give anything. 

The thing is that a lot of our historic blasts were a nose hair away from being non-events or of the dreaded border hugger variety. December 1968, December 1964, a lot of January 1950, January 1909 just to name a few. Events with sharp boundaries teetering on the fringes of the region. I think our perspective of the past biggies is that they were all these hulking 500mb monsters that sailed smoothly through the entire region and set up shop, but the reality was often a little different.

And I'm sure that volatility would have wreaked just as much havoc on the fragile weenie psyches of the time had our model friends been around.

 

[Phil]

@Front Ranger Lmao. Got forbid I take a 12 hour respite from posting.

Unfortunately work and responsibilities add up when you’re on vacation. Haven’t really looked at models today at all.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Big league snowmaker pattern at day 10

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Complete nightmare for Oregon... total dud. 

 

Got a version of this for Southern OR?

[Cascadia_Wx]

The 12z Euro is great run at face value. If this run came out of the clear blue sky in the midst of this mild winter we’d all be cheering. But now that expectations are being set, think everyone, especially those south of the Mason-Thurston line, are very gun shy about even the slightest nod in the stalled arctic front/ “hey its not as cold but nbd cuz its SO much snowier in favored convergence sound locations” direction.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Complete nightmare for Oregon... total dud. 

 

You can't blame them. Many times in the past decade the models have shown something similar, only to see the Arctic air stay further and further north as it gets closer.

[iFred]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1084011933038372&set=a.736649561107946

Daylight and sun really increases due to our latitude. Enjoy this while it lasts.

That energy is minimal until around February 15th.

[Doinko]

Looks like a very wet system approaching at the end with cold air in place

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

RIP Connery. 

Never seen that movie...Connery, Caan, and Caine. Just might have to.

I caught it on a TNT rerun once years ago back when I still had cable. Really exorbitantly long with commercials.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

@Front Ranger Lmao. Got forbid I take a 12 hour respite from posting.

Unfortunately work and responsibilities add up when you’re on vacation. Haven’t really looked at models today at all.

Check out the 6z goofus. Off the rails

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Complete nightmare for Oregon... total dud. 

 

its great, but toeing a thin line too far out still.  lots of nail biting ahead 

[OysterPrintout]

Not the encyclopedic brain here but can't say I remember seeing a progression like the one depicted day 7-10 just very weird looking. LOCK IT IN.

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a very wet system approaching at the end with cold air in place

Yeah looks like it would be massive overrunning event

[Christensen87]

Taking a look at the 12z GFS, could be pretty windy around the Sound on Tuesday. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Can't get COVID from wifu body pillows.

Y’all are worse than NYC weenies this year. Damn.

And wtf is a wifu body pillow?  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a very wet system approaching at the end with cold air in place

Looking that way, looks juicy! 
 

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

This bad boy is approaching at the end

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Yeah looks like it would be massive overrunning event

AR plume pointed at northern CA at the end of the run... but don't see a way the air mass moderates in this situation without some kind of massive overrunning event.  

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Looking that way, looks juicy! 
 

 

I refuse to believe that the arctic air will actually make it almost halfway to Hawaii, but it's a fun run to fantasize about. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Not the encyclopedic brain here but can't say I remember seeing a progression like the one depicted day 7-10 just very weird looking. LOCK IT IN.

January 2011.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

This bad boy is approaching at the end

Take the right track and it will just pull down more cold air from BC 

[Front Ranger]

About the only thing the models agree on by day 9 is there's gonna be a sh*t ton of high latitude blocking.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Complete nightmare for Oregon... total dud. 

 

50 burger for me

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

AR plume pointed at northern CA at the end of the run... but don't see a way the air mass moderates in this situation without some kind of massive overrunning event.  

Yah you're right this wouldn't even be considered an overrunning event unless the low tracked further north.

[AlTahoe]

Euro shows the Kona low getting dragged into the flow. Gfs shows the Kona low retreating back towards Hawaii. All eyes are on the Kona low in future runs. The Euro solution seems like a one off to me as the evolution of that tropical moisture is razor thin.