January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[RentonHill]

I think i see phil's girlfriend in this one

 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

GEM GOTTA CAVE on tonight's 00z right???

I don't think there's any consensus to cave to currently. Looking across the board at GFS, EURO, CMC, ICON, UKMET, JMA, they're all over the place with the evolution of the pattern past day 5.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sure looks like a monster -NAO on these runs. GFS not so much.

 

Yeah and it’s the main thing driving the cold into SW Canada. Without the -NAO this is a boring seasonal pattern in the PNW.

Pacific block has never been all that impressive on guidance. All PNW arctic blasts in El Niño winters have had NAO help (Pacific will naturally be more hostile in Niño years).

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I think i see phil's girlfriend in this one

 

looks like angry eyes

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I don't think there's any consensus to cave to currently. Looking across the board at GFS, EURO, CMC, ICON, UKMET, JMA, they're all over the place with the evolution of the pattern past day 5.

You're right. We essentially only have euro/eps and gfs/gefs on board

[DeepFriedEgg]

Well it appears the rug tug is delayed. Hopefully it is denied

[Mid Valley Duck]

12z Graphcast looks a lot like the 12z Euro. Which makes sense considering its based on it.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-z500-t850?base_time=202401051200&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401121200

[TT-SEA]

Full 12Z EPS run...

[Phil]

There’s a consensus across guidance to retrograde the blocking into NE-Siberia mid-month. Which means big time +EAMT/+dAAMt and jet extension straight into that arctic airmass.  

Someone is going to get a LOT of snow as that happens. By the end of the transition we’re back into the El Niño pattern, but getting there could be a fun ride.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Full 12Z EPS run...

Getting to the point where things get interesting at less than 144 hours now…

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah and it’s the main thing driving the cold into SW Canada. Without the -NAO this is a boring seasonal pattern in the PNW.

Pacific block has never been all that impressive on guidance. All PNW arctic blasts in El Niño winters have had NAO help (Pacific will naturally be more hostile in Niño years).

I agree that the -NAO is essential to the overall pattern here.

But there have definitely been impressive Pacific/AK blocks modeled...take yesterday's bone chilling 12z Euro for instance.

[Requiem]

So what did I miss-- is it over? Still back?

[Groundhog]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Canada hasn’t lifted the Stanley Cup (non-Starbucks version) in over 30 years. And if they keep this crap up it won’t for another 30. 

My Oilers jammies & fluffy bunny slippers from Christmas Eve ‘86 allowed them to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup three more times. (Flames in ‘89 & Habs in ‘93 don’t count). And in darker times, consider it lucky draft lottery paraphernalia. Seems a lot of us weekend warrior meteorologists are wearing fluffy bunny slippers today considering model outputs—GEM notwithstanding. 

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

My Oilers jammies & fluffy bunny slippers from Christmas Eve ‘86 allowed them to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup three more times. (Flames in ‘89 & Habs in ‘93 don’t count). And in darker times, consider it lucky draft lottery paraphernalia. Seems a lot of us weekend warrior meteorologists are wearing fluffy bunny slippers today considering model outputs—GEM notwithstanding. 

Great photo! Where in Canada are you?

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I agree that the -NAO is essential to the overall pattern here.

But there have definitely been impressive Pacific/AK blocks modeled...take yesterday's bone chilling 12z Euro for instance.

Yeah but D10 OP runs are for entertainment purposes only (and it was the stronger -NAO that subsequently augmented the -EPO on that run).

The signal has been pretty clear on the ensembles for awhile now, that the NPAC blocking is not overly impressive. And it doesn’t necessarily have to be, since the NAO is picking up the slack.

[TacomaWx]

Im aware this isn’t exactly how it works…but it definitely seemed like the euro traded some cold for more snowfall. Normally I’d take the snowier runs over the coldest runs. This time I was really hoping for historic cold punching all the way down to San Francisco…but overall the last few years it seems like we’ve gotten a lot of these really cold solutions that eventually ended up being more moderated with more snowfall. This also leads to a more N/S gradient. It’s only one run though so no point in over speculation of the details. 

[MossMan]

Biggest most important 18z GFS ever! Coming soon. 

[RentonHill]

Frustratingly still 10-15 turds or semi-turds in there. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah but D10 OP runs are for entertainment purposes only (and it was the stronger -NAO that subsequently augmented the -EPO on that run).

The signal has been pretty clear on the ensembles for awhile now, that the NPAC blocking is not overly impressive. And it doesn’t necessarily have to be, since the NAO is picking up the slack.

I hope you're right. But historically, it's very rare for a -NAO to force Arctic air deep into the PNW when the GOA/AK ridge floats too far north or goes away.

I'd be curious to see an example of when a -NAO pushed Arctic air into the PNW without cooperation/help from the Pacific side.

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Michael Snyder says it’s time to get excited!! 

I had the urge to go get all my off-island errands done today and it's obvious nobody is thinking about snow.  Costco was even calm.

None of them know they're all about to freeze to death.  

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Frustratingly still 10-15 turds or semi-turds in there. 

It’s pretty much 80% odds of an epic event and 20% odds of a full rug pull. No middle ground. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah but D10 OP runs are for entertainment purposes only (and it was the stronger -NAO that subsequently augmented the -EPO on that run).

The signal has been pretty clear on the ensembles for awhile now, that the NPAC blocking is not overly impressive. And it doesn’t necessarily have to be, since the NAO is picking up the slack.

Here's day 7 on last night's Euro. 564 heights well into AK is absolutely an impressive block.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It’s pretty much 80% odds of an epic event and 20% odds of a full rug pull. No middle ground. 

[MossMan]

Jared is still not onboard! 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Frustratingly still 10-15 turds or semi-turds in there. 

Watch member #27 pull it out of the hat  

[MossMan]

Getting quite breezy out there! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

53 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Day 9 vs last two runs

The trend is our best friend!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now waking up. Looks like the models are ok. Still snowy at least.

[Groundhog]

11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Great photo! Where in Canada are you?

Mission, BC. Been in the Fraser Valley almost 20 years. Grew up in Kelowna, BC, however, but born in Alberta. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Hour 180 on EPS. Cold camp is growing

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here's day 7 on last night's Euro. 564 heights well into AK is absolutely an impressive block.

The fact you’re posting snippets from a single OP run 7+ days out proves my point.

Even there, relative to the amplitude of the pattern it’s nothing to write home about. Using normalized anomalies, it is fewer standard deviations from the mean than the NAO block (or the TPV, for that matter). Barely 2σ AK block versus 3σ TPV.

[Requiem]

Ensembles and their respective operational runs (except for whatever the GEM is doing) still look good-- though you can't exactly blame Oregon ppl for being a bit skeptical of any slowing of cold air. That being said-- February 2021, January 1980, January 1969... all ended up working out that way, so who knows 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Ensembles and their respective operational runs (except for whatever the GEM is doing) still look good-- though you can't exactly blame Oregon ppl for being a bit skeptical of any slowing of cold air. That being said-- February 2021, January 1980, January 1969... all ended up working out that way, so who knows 

A lot of time left…odds are almost always better the further north you go but it’s not a lock yet for western Washington either. I’m feeling good about it for now though! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks good here!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 37F last night. Not too many warm nights in the pipe anymore for a while.

[Phil]

Some will hate me for this, I suspect that N/S gradient will continue to tighten, with less cold making it down to OR as we get closer. Analogous patterns (most from the 1960s) did likewise.

Not saying it won’t be historic in OR but probably less so compared to WA.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensemble also looking good!

[DareDuck]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks good here!

3’ for central OR. Even just 40-50% of that would be fantastic. I love the potential but it’s going to be a long wait until Tuesday. 

[runninthruda206]

22 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

LOL

[umadbro]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Some will hate me for this, I suspect that N/S gradient will continue to tighten, with less cold making it down to OR as we get closer. Analogous patterns (most from the 1960s) did likewise.

Not saying it won’t be historic in OR but probably less so compared to WA.

Throw this model run out the window.