Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
Lol. When convection is enhanced over the West-Pacific warm pool, it will ultimately force a western ridge in approximately 75% of cases (and near 100% of cases in the summer/fall).
And this is a clean, healthy MJO (wave-1 VP200 signature) with no background/ENSO signal to interfere at the moment. So climatologically, you would expect a warm/dry outcome with a high degree of confidence.
But no need to fret. This MJO will propagate into the E-Hem late in the month and into June, when it will coincide with the seasonal onset of the asian monsoon, which is likely to even further enhance the forcing from the Indian Ocean/E-Hem sector, and bring about a period of substantial western troughing (and likely the onset of the low frequency niña signal in the global tropics).
I think you’ll enjoy the eventual outcome (at least subseasonally) since the longest days of the year are likely to coincide with troughing in your region.
True that. I have been disappointed on previous campouts for the same purpose. That it is the first G4 level storm warning prompting a campout makes me cautiously optimistic.
The Map I saw showed the naked eye line down to the northern 3rd of California. Also the newest news on X is that it is stronger than they thought once it reached the first detection satellite. Either way a 3 minute walk down to the lake with a beer in hand is always a good thing:-)
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