January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[The Cats Meow]

My phone app has been on board for about three days.

Woke up this morning and have lost the phone app.

At best it shows a one day quick hitter and then back to regularly scheduled programming.

[snow maniac]

Well I was going to cut more  firewood today and winterize the shop but now seeing the latest models Im not concerned and will wait until next week.

[snow maniac]

5 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Well I was going to cut more  firewood today and winterize the shop but now seeing the latest models Im not concerned and will wait until next week.

I’m probably jumping the gun here but Im so used to the rug pull it’s comical.

[Timmy]

Pretty big letdown unless this thing turns back around.  I guess we really can’t have good things in a nino.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

You’re up awfully late/early! Your power out as well? 

Our power went out at 4:30 across town but came back on about five minutes later. However it woke my son and I up and I can't go back to sleep. Spouse at the hospital said they went out briefly too.

[MossMan]

Power is back on! Temp down to 37!

.38” so far on the day. 

[SpaceRace22]

Well, the 06z Euro ensembles are still snowy. They don't go far enough out to tell if there's any meaningful cold either way, but there's at least hints of something on a few members. Need to see a clear turnaround begin on the 12z runs today if we are to have any chance at this, but all is not lost yet.

Home from work now, so night shift signing off. Cook up some good 12z runs for me bbs, xoxo 

[Mid Valley Duck]

As Jim pointed out a bunch the EPS really wasn’t as bad as initially thought. This is a major battle within the EPS. This is for Portland Friday morning. Basically it’s just slightly below average (-3.5c or warmer) or it’s a cold blast (-9c or colder). Almost nothing in between and pretty evenly split. There also still is a sizeable camp (about 25%) that is colder than -15c. Going to be interesting to see which side wins.

 

[The Winter Warlock]

COVID seems to be rebounding. Infected on the 16th of December, finally tested negative on 12/31 and was feeling better. Now a cough and a mild fever a week later. Ugh.

[Kolk1604]

FWIW I think the 06z control looks better than the 00z 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

FWIW I think the 06z control looks better than the 00z 

We are at the “straw grasping” stage now.

[Timmy]

The 12z nam has that low down to 975mb. Not good.

Edited January 6 by Timmy

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

We are at the “straw grasping” stage now.

I don’t know how you can say that in good faith considering the massive split between all the models and within the ensembles. I don’t think this is a lock or will likely turn around but it’s not also dead.

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

I don’t know how you can say that in good faith considering the massive split between all the models and within the ensembles. I don’t think this is a lock or will likely turn around but it’s not also dead.

True. Trend isn’t our friend tho

[Skagit Weather]

At the very least, even if it doesn't snow in the lowlands, the mountains look to get buried. That's a win in my book for a niño.

[AbbyJr]

12 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

FWIW I think the 06z control looks better than the 00z 

It is but there is also less data inputted into it if I’m not mistaken.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Sorry guys, I guess I need to own this one.  Last night I told my wife I would need to properly winterize the house this weekend, and that we needed to get booties for the doggo (she struggles when it gets in the teens or lower).  I'll keep my trap shut next time.

 

 

Had a heck of a downpour last night but I slept through it, currently .40" since midnight and a temp of 38

[TacomaWx]

Wow, went to bed at 9 last night thinking the euro and EPS would be unchanged and the gfs was completely wrong. Was willing to write that strong low messing everything up as a wonky gfs solution…but there’s some serious doubt about this event as a whole at this point.
 Although it’s definitely not over and there very well could still be some fun winter weather for atleast some people. Definitely a disappointing turn of events no matter how you look at it. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Public service announcement:

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I finally figured it out, its gotta be that stronger sun angle going forward everyday that messed up our chances 

 

[TT-SEA]

Slight coating of slush here this morning.  

[Ray]

Good lord people, we are still six days out.  How many times in the past have we seen these models go back and forth?  There is no way I would personally put stock in ANY model this far out.  We are still way too far out to know one way or another how this will end up playing out.

[Mercurial]

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, Ray said:

Good lord people, we are still six days out.  How many times in the past have we seen these models go back and forth?  There is no way I would personally put stock in ANY model this far out.  We are still way too far out to know one way or another how this will end up playing out.

El Niño + climo. Plain and simple. 

[Mercurial]

On a happier note!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Ray said:

Good lord people, we are still six days out.  How many times in the past have we seen these models go back and forth?  There is no way I would personally put stock in ANY model this far out.  We are still way too far out to know one way or another how this will end up playing out.

It’s still early for sure and everything could work out and turn around…but based on the models the regional potential has taken a huge hit. I sense a strong N/S gradient which is typical of what we’ve seen in recent years. I’d also say the top tier potential has taken a pretty big hit also. 

[Jakewestsalem]

Parents getting heavy snow in Mill City, OR at about 900'

[Timmy]

low is down to 973 on icon. maybe it can get so bad that it gets good?

[Slushy Inch]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a fantastic run actually.

Ok you win for most optimistic person on the forum. It’s not even close 

[Slushy Inch]

6z euro control and eps is a bit better 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

low is down to 973 on icon. maybe it can get so bad that it gets good?

ICON looks way east on Thursday compared to its improved 00Z run.  

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ICON looks way east on Thursday compared to its improved 00Z run.  

The ICON is not fine

[SnowWillarrive]

My weather app took away all cold

[MikeInEverett]

People at work haven’t checked their weather app yet this morning. They’re gonna be surprised when they see that the 11 degrees they were just talking about turned to 27 since last night.

[MossMan]

Looks like everyone is hitting the slopes this morning. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

People at work haven’t checked their weather app yet this morning. They’re gonna be surprised when they see that the 11 degrees they were just talking about turned to 27 since last night.

I went from sub zero to barely below freezing for a day. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is down to 972mb with that low early Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like everyone is hitting the slopes this morning. 

My son and his friends left Seattle early this morning and are already at Crystal.   Looks like it will be powder day up there. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is down to 972mb with that low early Tuesday.

Have a hard time imagining that detail completely going away at this point with how the models started picking up on it last night. 

[MikeInEverett]

They’ve been having a conversation for over 10 minutes now about all the prep they’re going to do. This is hard to listen to.