January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I bet it will end up not nearly as cold as the GEM but way better than the GFS.  

But I would hate to be a professional forecaster.   The range of possibilities is still ridiculously high for being 5 days out.  

IIRC in the lead up to the late November/Early December 2022 and the bigger December 2022 events…we had no idea what was going to happen either. 

[Andstorm]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

248 pages of ensemble chatter would be pretty boring. 
 

Down to 33 here. 

Haha…very fair point. Ensembles have shortcomings too. As someone who gravitates to meteograms, the mean values can be frustrating. I think median would be a much better measure, since the ensembles always have a few really crazy member solutions that can skew the data set. I just like ensembles more for recognizing trends and potential outcomes when it’s realistically too far out to try to ascertain a true forecast. But agree it’s not nearly as exciting. 

[Randyc321]

5 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

I'm jumping off the train. Going back to normal life. We should get a good blast next year.

 

[Doinko]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

The GEFS cold camp actually had significant growth. Only 4 members hit -10c last night. That’s back up to 10. 
 

Yeah, with so many members still in the very cold camp I still don't think this is done for.

[Darrington Troll]

7 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

I'm jumping off the train. Going back to normal life. We should get a good blast next year.

As a weiner warrior should

[Hawksfan2008]

 Canadian ensemble 

[Winterdog]

After the carnage of last night's runs, this morning feels like we are returning to a burned out home looking for surviving remnants.  36 with snow on the top of Jordan Ridge at 2000 feet.

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

 Canadian ensemble 

No bueno

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

After the carnage of last night's runs, this morning feels like we are returning to a burned out home looking for surviving remnants.  36 with snow on the top of Jordan Ridge at 2000 feet.

The ECMWF was quite good last night and the 00Z GEM buried us in snow.    It was not a total disaster. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, with so many members still in the very cold camp I still don't think this is done for.

Here’s the GEPS at the same time

 

[Phishy Wx]

20 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Unless it shows record snow and cold. Then it’s the gold standard

nah, its still trash, imo

[Phishy Wx]

FTR our 1-3" event last night/today so far has played out as 34 and non accumulating snow.  I know that wasn't the main event, but yeah, too warm so far

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

No bueno

When you look member by member it’s really not that different from last nights. It lost more members in the middle but it has the same size cold camp

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF was quite good last night and the 00Z GEM buried us in snow.    It was not a total disaster. 

Yesterday's 00z GEM was actually the single warmest ensemble member at a point in the run. I think Washington could still score something even if some of the warmer solutions win out

[SeanNyberg]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I bet it will end up not nearly as cold as the GEM but way better than the GFS.  

But I would hate to be a professional forecaster.   The range of possibilities is still ridiculously high for being 5 days out.  

This. All of this. 

These professional, public-facing meteorologists  are in an unenviable position. Walk the line between properly warning the public about a very real chance of exteme cold and snow chances. In an area of the country that rarely sees either.

While also restraining oneself due to the inherent uncertainty of forecasting in general, worsened by the waffling of major forecast models. Knowing that any suggestion of snow or a prolonged freeze sends the public into a panic.

Hats off to the ladies, men, and non-binary professional forecasters in the PNW. Your job is infinitely more difficult and important than the nonsense that goes on here.

Quick note: I want to formally apologize to the NWS employee who made yesterday’s graphic that I critiqued so harshly in this public forum. That was unnecessary and I was wrong. I’m sorry. 

[Deweydog]

Just for the record, 20 years ago RIGHT NOW it was 19 degrees and SNOWING outside.

[Winterdog]

There is snow mixed in with the rain here!  Very evident.  36 degrees.

[Phishy Wx]

yeah 0 consistency with this approaching the 120h benchmark.  Literally anything could happen from non event to freezer, from snowstorm to 50 degree AR.  lol it's a mess

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

This. All of this. 

These professional, public-facing meteorologists  are in an unenviable position. Walk the line between properly warning the public about a very real chance of exteme cold and snow chances. In an area of the country that rarely sees either.

While also restraining oneself due to the inherent uncertainty of forecasting in general, worsened by the waffling of major forecast models. Knowing that any suggestion of snow or a prolonged freeze sends the public into a panic.

Hats off to the ladies, men, and non-binary professional forecasters in the PNW. Your job is infinitely more difficult and important than the nonsense that goes on here.

Quick note: I want to formally apologize to the NWS employee who made yesterday’s graphic that I critiqued so harshly in this public forum. That was unnecessary and I was wrong. I’m sorry. 

They do make some highly questionable graphic choices

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Snowww! I love Snow! By far the most snow we've had so far this season!

 

[the_convergence_zone]

I’m waiting for another EPS run before jumping to any conclusions. Given what everything else is doing, I’ll take a repeat of 00Z. I fully expect more members to jump to the warm camp, however. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

I’m waiting for another EPS run before jumping to any conclusions. Given what everything else is doing, I’ll take a repeat of 00Z. I fully expect more members to jump to the warm camp, however. 

00Z ECMWF was really a good run... arctic front and entrenched cold air and then an overrunning event that didn't even scour the cold out and was snow from start to finish from Salem northward.

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I’m waiting for another EPS run before jumping to any conclusions. Given what everything else is doing, I’ll take a repeat of 00Z. I fully expect more members to jump to the warm camp, however. 

Maybe worth while waiting until Monday’s12z. Sometimes we need a human or two to validate things.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the 12Z GEM is on board.   Just a tiny bit.

Next weekend is looking quite frigid if it verifies!

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF was really a good run... arctic front and entrenched cold air and then an overrunning event that didn't even scour the cold out and was snow from start to finish from Salem northward.

But as you said last night the run is really a moving target.  It will likely trend to the warmer solutions.  I'm not trying to be negative but it comes so naturally for me.

[iFred]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF was quite good last night and the 00Z GEM buried us in snow.    It was not a total disaster. 

Being the voice of reason.

Just like February 2019.

[MossMan]

Remember just two days ago when all was well with the world with basically all of the models showing historic fun. 
Memories. 

[MossMan]

No Andrew this morning…Probably for the best at the moment. 
Currently 36 and cloudy. 

[MV_snow]

I will not give up until the Spire blinks. Bow down to our new AI overlords.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

But as you said last night the run is really a moving target.  It will likely trend to the warmer solutions.  I'm not trying to be negative but it comes so naturally for me.

Check with me and Randy during Seahawks games if you want to see being negative come naturally.   

Surprisingly Randy is much more positive during these event lead ups compared to his Seahawks self!  

[Blizzard777]

Sniffles , a bit of a line but she’s staying open late today for us .  Feeling a bit better as well. She’s also allowing me to hold onto one weather model map. Doing my best to deal efficiently with the rug pull 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The plot thickens

[MikeInEverett]

“Tell me about the model runs you saw on January 3rd and 4th 2024”

[Meatyorologist]

That Canadian was so stupid. Weakened the blocking even more and gets the job done even better. Just its bowling ball bias

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Sniffles , a bit of a line but she’s staying open late today for us .  Feeling a bit better as well. She’s also allowing me to hold onto one weather model map. Doing my best to deal efficiently with the rug pull 

I did NOT know Kenny Loggins was a member here!

[LowerGarfield]

Is the GEM the same thing as CMC? I have seen that thrown around before.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Is the GEM the same thing as CMC? I have seen that thrown around before.

Yes,

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Remember just two days ago when all was well with the world with basically all of the models showing historic fun. 
Memories. 

3 or 4 days ago the models were pretty pedestrian.  Somewhat cool, mountain snow, but nothing Arctic.  And then they turned on a dime.  So confusing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I believe the reason we see a pull back every time like this with some of the models is the lack of data available in the ocean and it effects the model at certain times. We see this happen every time we track a big event and it almost always comes back. Some models are better at certain points so they hold on to the pattern. I expect a full turnaround on the models sometime Sunday. 

[runninthruda206]

9 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

“Tell me about the model runs you saw on January 3rd and 4th 2024”