January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

On my drive into Seattle I was listening to Komo 1000 for traffic update getting into the city as shiz was already bad on 405 south.  Their weather forecast for Thursday into Friday was some light accumulations on grassy surfaces but we'd see freezes over the weekend.  What crack are these mets smoking?

That's the correct forecast for Seattle for Thursday and Friday. Nobody is going to dare talk about Saturday yet -- people get their torches and pitchforks if mets predict snow and it busts. 

[SnowWillarrive]

4 KM out to 90 hours. Hard not to like that. I’m skeptical though. 

[snow_wizard]

Good Lord!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is heavily influenced by the GFS and its more northerly solution.

But the Euro has more ensemble members, I would think that the GFS wouldn't have any more influence than the others.  Maybe I'm wrong.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Good Lord!

It finally caved! lol 

[The Blob]

44 minutes ago, iFred said:

Meetup details - 

 

So this is actually happening?? too bad I'll be in TTD experiencing the force of the gorge.

[FrozenBites]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good Lord!

Imagine. Snow on the ground  nearly 2 weeks.

[SouthHillFrosty]

BOOOOOOOM

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good Lord!

WTF

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

4km has higher resolution, and it doesn't show me getting skunked so badly with the arctic front.

 

I would actually feel better if we got skunked on Saturday if I got this amount with the arctic front! Also I believe this was the one model that showed my old place getting nuked back on 2/18/18…It was quite accurate! 

[Jbolin]

14 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Rare to see the NBM spit out amounts this high in the sound. 

Ring, ring. Ring, ring,

Feb 2019 is on the other line. 

[Phishy Wx]

30 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Haha people are crazy skiing in this, crystal mountain web cams look like a blizzard

because it is a Blizzard

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

because it is a Blizzard

Yes i know, I typed that wrong.

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good Lord!

lol so non event, rain/slop, push the cold can down road about 10 days, sounds about right

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol so non event, rain/slop, push the cold can down road about 10 days, sounds about right

This would be one of the all time great cold spells!!

[AbbyJr]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

While I’m wary of using unfiltered RMMs alone to reflect MJO, when they project strongly into phase-7, it increases my confidence that a legitimate SSW will come to fruition.

Some of this amplification is a result of the ongoing minor SSW augmenting the Brewer Dobson Circulation (think of that as a mass overturning circulation in the stratosphere from the equator to the pole), but the MJO position in phase-7 (WPAC) also augments wave driving in a way that is favorable for additional PV disruption.

So even when the current blocking episode wanes, I’m very confident there will be another one in February (likely -NAO centric once again).

Does the ENSO state have any impact on which phase of the MJO is preferred for various outcomes in various regions? From what I can find, it's only the timeframe such as DJF or JFM where one phase is preferred over the other. I know MJO phase 7 is really good for PNW cold but is that only during La Niña winters or is ENSO not relevant?

[Olive1010]

Guys, what is a normal snow-to-liquid ratio for these scenarios in the valley for lowland snow, like would 10:1 be good? Or less than that?

[snow_wizard]

Already obvious the ECMWF is going to dig more than the GFS again.

[Front Ranger]

At hour 48, Euro is once again stronger and faster than GFS with southward push of Arctic air.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOOOOOOM

Regional BLAST

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

Guys, what is a normal snow-to-liquid ratio for these scenarios in the valley for lowland snow, like would 10:1 be good? Or less than that?

South of Portland probably 10 to 1.  Portland itself could be much higher.

That's for this event.  Each event is different.

[iFred]

24 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOOOOOOM

I WAS TOLD* THAT WINTER WAS OVER BY SOME VERY SMUG CANADIANS.

*inferred from what I personally perceive as a mix of being smug and pretentious

[Perturbed Member]

12z Euro tonight

[snow_wizard]

Actually SLIGHTLY deeper than the 6z or 0z.  WTF is up with the GFS?

[Front Ranger]

Comparing the previous three 12z Euros, really nice to see that the Euro is actually speeding up the Arctic front slightly. Often see the opposite within 72 hours.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Already obvious the ECMWF is going to dig more than the GFS again.

 

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At hour 48, Euro is once again stronger and faster than GFS with southward push of Arctic air.

Here we go!!!

[JW8]

Purely anecdotal, but it feels like models almost always tend to overdo the southern push of arctic air. I can't recall the last time it was the other way around- anyone have a recent example?

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually SLIGHTLY deeper than the 6z or 0z.  WTF is up with the GFS?

It’s over for us 

[TT-SEA]

Arctic front snow per ECMWF. 

[Front Ranger]

And the Arctic air is reaching PDX at day 3.

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Ring, ring. Ring, ring,

Feb 2019 is on the other line. 

Looks like over a foot here and yet most models show nothing other than the gfs.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s over for us 

12z GEFS looked better (a little more boom or bust tbh)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Comparing the previous three 12z Euros, really nice to see that the Euro is actually speeding up the Arctic front slightly. Often see the opposite within 72 hours.

I think that might be the reason the weekend systems head south. They don’t have time to make it further north as the jet gets suppressed.

[TT-SEA]

Initial thought is ECMWF will be more suppressed with precip over weekend.

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

12z Euro tonight

Euro has been very persistent in showing that the Portland metro area is in a good spot tonight. Not expecting a bunch of accumulation, but we should at least get some wet snow in the air! 

[TT-SEA]

Way south on Friday afternoon... by a long shot compared to GFS.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Initial thought is ECMWF will be more suppressed with precip over weekend.

All we need up here is a few inches of snow before we go into the dry spell, nothing would be worse than missing out on snowfall and then getting cold for a week. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 25 or lower for a high in SEA on Friday on this run.

[MikeInEverett]

Really really hope the Arctic front is juicier than modeled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At this rate Portland might be in trouble if you believe the Euro.