January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Icon way south, misses portland .

Maybe I called it?

Quote

On Thursday morning, the NAM 3km puts a blob of purple over @MossMan with the arctic front and it verifies. Dustings for everyone else with the AF. Then the weekend system goes way south and delivers for @TigerWoodsLibido. Those two end up the big winners.

Next December when the first model ride of the season shows up, Tiger starts up his “my climate sucks” line and MossMan cranks up the vomit reacts, same as ever.

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Icon way south, misses portland .

It is so far south it misses both me and TWL

[westcoastexpat]

JMA is south 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

C-130 Hercules has landed on a carrier. Pretty impressive. 

So it has!

https://simpleflying.com/how-us-navy-landed-c-130-on-aircraft-carrier/

But it had special modifications to enable this. So my earlier statement about a passenger jet stands.

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I've heard the McDonnell Douglas theory as well, and I wonder if it has anything to do with them moving the HQ to Chicago.  Pretty easy to get detached from the goings on of the company.  My global HQ is in France, and there is a definite difference in management oversight and expectations, especially when it comes to driving demands and making operational decisions.

At one point we were owned by a group in the UK, and their mandate was "go forth and make money, we don't care how you do it as long as you send us a profit check every quarter"  Company ran like a Swiss watch and was very profitable during that period.

Yeah fair point on the HQ moving. 

I used to work with a guy who was an ex engineer at Boeing and he just had nothing positive to say about the culture change there after the Boeing-MD merger and I've heard similar sentiment from others previously at Boeing too. Not sure how true it really is but MD seems to have a pretty bad rep. Maybe some of that bias against them also comes from the DC-10 aircraft aka Death Cruiser 10 that they initially half assed. They eventually fixed the plane but the reputation was pretty slow to recover. 

The 737 Max is pretty much the new era DC-10. 

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I heard next winter will be off the charts! 

I know I know…Phil will be right with me…

Looking forward to it.  I really miss watching snow falling. 

[van city]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I have a feeling the GFS is going to cave but knowing how stubborn it has been I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t.

It won’t cave, the NBM will give it the disproportionate weight it always does, the NWS will follow the NBM and issue bogus advisories, it will fail, and the NWS will have egg on its face.

[RCola]

Lol, ICON says nothing for anyone this weekend, unless you live in Klamath Falls.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

That's just the surface low too. The parent low is still well off to the west.

Snow and ice totals through Friday 10pm.

[Winterdog]

7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I have a feeling the GFS is going to cave but knowing how stubborn it has been I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t.

I'm guessing It'll cave half way on the 18Z and go full cave on the 0Z.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

Lol, ICON says nothing for anyone this weekend, unless you live in Klamath Falls.

@Timmy Supercell use to live there.

[Prairiedog]

17 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Rod still backing the GFS. Some snow Friday then a big ice storm into Saturday. Then fast warmup on Sunday.

His noon forecast that was on tv showed 35/26  with sleet or zr for Saturday, 38/25 pc on Sunday, 41/24 mostly sunny monday.

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm just talking about what's being shown now in the short term.

But the GFS has gotten significantly colder for you and everyone else compared to a couple days ago. Check out the 12z run from two days ago for Monday am.

 

Way colder today.

Cold out here was always a given. We always seem to find a way to see -50F departures now. 

I'm speaking about the western lowlands. The GFS has performed much better in the lead up to this event. Of course it's possible it has lost its way but constancy means something in my book. There a few on here that have been very dismissive of it and all I'm saying is that I wouldn't put any less stock in it compared to the Euro at this point.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Snow and ice totals through Friday 10pm.

oh nice another Central Valley ice storm pounding. poor trees 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Icon way south, misses portland .

This run is colder than a brass monkey arse.  The good news is it looks snowier going into the cold.  At least on the bad graphics I've seen.

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Right, not entirely sure how ETOPS would work in that situation. Oxygen masks definitely wouldn't last very long. It's generally gives enough time for the plane to drop to an altitude you can breathe at. I think the number I remember was 7 minutes but it definitely depends on the aircraft. 

7 minutes may be what the airline target is (I'm not sure about the operational side of things) but from a design specification standpoint I have only seen 12 or 22 minute, depending on the operational profile/region where the aircraft will operate.  If they are in mountainous regions where it might be difficult to drop immediately to 10-12k feet, then they go with the 22 minute.  Overall, the units are the same with the only difference is the Oxygen Generator, which is easy to replace.

Maybe 7 minutes for a regional turboprop, though a lot of those don't even have PSUs. 

 

BTW I worked on a development program for a Regional Jet for 12 years, focused on the "payload systems" which in the case of a passenger jet, the passengers are the payload.  Before that, I worked on aircraft retrofit programs, and that often included the PSU (where the Oxygen mask is located).  So I've had a fair amount of hands on with this stuff.  Fun fact, the old 747-400's often had a gaseous oxygen system.  The had O2 cannisters in the belly, and O2 lines running up to all of the PSUs.  Qantas actually had one of those tanks fail on a flight from Hong Hong to Melbourne.  It launched into the passenger cabin, almost dislodged a door, then got sucked back out the hole it created when it initially burst.  It did a lot of damage.  We did a lot of work on  their aircraft, so we had a bunch of people have their weekends get ruined so  they could come in to work and start pulling together documentation for the FAA and ATSB.

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Ah, yeah, but it came from Boeing with that plug, so its effectively a "factory installed option."  I watched a video on this last night, and apparently as part of the final test,Boeing pressurizes the airframe to 1.5 times its operating limit to ensure there are no leaks.

That said there is definitely a manufacturing defect here (quality issue) either at Spirit in Wichita or at the FAL down in Renton. 

It will definitely be interesting to see what the investigation uncovers.  The fasteners should not be able to rattle loose if installed properly.

which is the non union shop?  I'd start there if that's the difference.  (i'm only partially joking)

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah fair point on the HQ moving. 

I used to work with a guy who was an ex engineer at Boeing and he just had nothing positive to say about the culture change there after the Boeing-MD merger and I've heard similar sentiment from others previously at Boeing too. Not sure how true it really is but MD seems to have a pretty bad rep. Maybe some of that bias against them also comes from the DC-10 aircraft aka Death Cruiser 10 that they initially half assed. They eventually fixed the plane but the reputation was pretty slow to recover. 

The 737 Max is pretty much the new era DC-10. 

My son has a few friends who got jobs there out of college, and are not at all happy there.  I told him to get resumes and I would be happy to circulate them amongst my network.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

11 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

JMA is south 

Does the moisture lift north Friday night and Saturday?

[Ken in Wood Village]

Not sure I'd someone already posted something about this but the NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Portland area from 500 feet up for 1 to 3 inches of snow tonight. I'm thinking it could be lower. Back to work for me

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

which is the non union shop?  I'd start there if that's the difference.  (i'm only partially joking)

LOL, Boeing is definitely union (at least here in Washington), not sure about Spirit.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS has to go colder on the 18z.  Just no time left now.

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

7 minutes may be what the airline target is (I'm not sure about the operational side of things) but from a design specification standpoint I have only seen 12 or 22 minute, depending on the operational profile/region where the aircraft will operate.  If they are in mountainous regions where it might be difficult to drop immediately to 10-12k feet, then they go with the 22 minute.  Overall, the units are the same with the only difference is the Oxygen Generator, which is easy to replace.

Maybe 7 minutes for a regional turboprop, though a lot of those don't even have PSUs. 

 

BTW I worked on a development program for a Regional Jet for 12 years, focused on the "payload systems" which in the case of a passenger jet, the passengers are the payload.  Before that, I worked on aircraft retrofit programs, and that often included the PSU (where the Oxygen mask is located).  So I've had a fair amount of hands on with this stuff.  Fun fact, the old 747-400's often had a gaseous oxygen system.  The had O2 cannisters in the belly, and O2 lines running up to all of the PSUs.  Qantas actually had one of those tanks fail on a flight from Hong Hong to Melbourne.  It launched into the passenger cabin, almost dislodged a door, then got sucked back out the hole it created when it initially burst.  It did a lot of damage.  We did a lot of work on  their aircraft, so we had a bunch of people have their weekends get ruined so  they could come in to work and start pulling together documentation for the FAA and ATSB.

I'll take your word for it then!

Might've been Q400's that have about 7 minutes, which would make sense since the service ceiling is 24k-25k feet.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has to go colder on the 18z.  Just no time left now.

Druncle gonna go Arctic cold!

[snow_wizard]

Snow looks a lot better on this ICON with the Arctic front.  Still low, but has Tim has mentioned that model is extremely stingy on snow in cases like this.

[SnowWillarrive]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So it has!

https://simpleflying.com/how-us-navy-landed-c-130-on-aircraft-carrier/

But it had special modifications to enable this. So my earlier statement about a passenger jet stands.

Theoretically a 737 flown by a good pilot could land on a carrier.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

LOL, Boeing is definitely union (at least here in Washington), not sure about Spirit.

that's my point. isn't that part of the reason they're building Dreamliners in SC?  do to SC's non union stance?

[Prairiedog]

8 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

His noon forecast that was on tv showed 35/26  with sleet or zr for Saturday, 38/25 pc on Sunday, 41/24 mostly sunny monday.

He also showed for Friday, rain changing to sleet or ZR.  Didn't give snow much discussion. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Snow looks a lot better on this ICON with the Arctic front.  Still low, but has Tim has mentioned that model is extremely stingy on snow in cases like this.

We need to score with that front. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

LOL, Boeing is definitely union (at least here in Washington), not sure about Spirit.

Looks like Spirit is union, too.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spirit-aerosystems-union-workforce-approves-new-contract-ending-strike-kansas-2023-06-30/

[snow_wizard]

Graph Cast definitely won.  It has been showing what looks like is going to happen for days now with no waffling at all.

[Prairiedog]

Hill is pretty much (at this time) on a limb of his own.  Most other local mets have 1-3 fairly cold days below or close to freezing for highs.  He's the only one with no highs at or below freezing. 

[snow_wizard]

We have a ton of people on here looking for weather updates.  The plane talk might be a little overdone.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

I'll take your word for it then!

Might've been Q400's that have about 7 minutes, which would make sense since the service ceiling is 24k-25k feet.

Interestingly  enough, most Q400s don't even have PSUs in them.  In fact, I've been doing a lot of quoting the past few months to retrofit Oxygen systems onto several aircraft, as they have been bought by airlines that operate over large mountainous areas.  I can't remember off the top of my head what the duration on the generators is, I'll have to dig it up.  A lot of Q400's are being bought/sold right now.  It's keeping me busy!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Graph Cast definitely won.  It has been showing what looks like is going to happen for days now with no waffling at all.

Unless of course it didn't, because the GFS did. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good lord I have no fuckking clue what is gonna happen at this point. So any precip that falls here during that period would be ice right? The upper-levels wouldn't be complying? I'm so confused.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Interestingly  enough, most Q400s don't even have PSUs in them.  In fact, I've been doing a lot of quoting the past few months to retrofit Oxygen systems onto several aircraft, as they have been bought by airlines that operate over large mountainous areas.  I can't remember off the top of my head what the duration on the generators is, I'll have to dig it up.  A lot of Q400's are being bought/sold right now.  It's keeping me busy!

Sad Alaska/Horizon dumped them. I enjoyed flying in those, and especially the noise they made. Oh well. 

Maybe it is time to cut the plane talk as @snow_wizard requested, sad as it makes me. 

[Cold Snap]

Looks like the wind has died down here.

[Phishy Wx]

Dang..

 

Blizzard conditions will continue over the Cascades
 today. Travel conditions through the mountains will be extremely
 difficult. 500 mb temperatures have cooled off the -32c and 850
 mb winds are out of the WNW. The puget sound convergence zone is
 taking shape. Convective instability is obviously present as
 there has been lightning over the Olympic mountains. Am not
 expecting thundersnow at the Cascade passes, but extremely heavy
 snowfall is imminent as the convergence zone is starting to take
 shape on radar. 1 to 3 inch snowfall rates will ensue for the
 next 5 to 8 hours at Stevens pass. Hi res guidance indicates a 5%
 of 4 inch per hour snowfall rates around 2 to 4 PM if everything
 lines up perfectly. Truly remarkable. Up to 3 feet of snow is
 possible at Stevens Pass through tomorrow morning.