January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Cold out here was always a given. We always seem to find a way to see -50F departures now. 

I'm speaking about the western lowlands. The GFS has performed much better in the lead up to this event. Of course it's possible it has lost its way but constancy means something in my book. There a few on here that have been very dismissive of it and all I'm saying is that I wouldn't put any less stock in it compared to the Euro at this point.

Hmm, well all I can say is I think that's been addressed today 

I mentioned the temps in MT because you did, btw...

[snow_wizard]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely a reduction in snow totals on the 18Z GFS

12Z vs. 18Z

Much less dangerous for Seattle though.  Cold is more solid.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely a reduction in snow totals on the 18Z GFS

12Z vs. 18Z

Not 12 hrs later

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MossMan said:

That makes me all tingly inside 

Brought me out of a deep terrible depression I've been in all morning. I love the weather so much, even just the possibility of something good reminds me that I'm human

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs is a little south of the 06z run.  I dont compare the 18 to the 12

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Since the 18z a little colder, the GFS is already blinking first.

Yeah, it's clearly hedging towards the southern/drier solution already relative to the 12z and 06z.

Just at an extremely stubborn pace, in true American fashion!

Edited January 9 by BLI snowman

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It is interesting to see the gfs holding on for as long as it has. I really just don’t believe it though. 

maybe a hair of Nino climatology favors the GFS north and wetter solution?  I don't know spit balling.

[Mid Valley Duck]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

If the model solutions were switched there's no doubt many would be touting the "peerless accuracy of King Euro within 90 hours"

Lot of copium being consumed on this thread.

[Requiem]

This run was brought to you by all the roof repair companies that'll be rolling in the dough after an inch and a half of metro ice 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

maybe a hair of Nino climatology favors the GFS north and wetter solution?  I don't know spit balling.

There’s no way the gfs is right IMO. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

5 run trend on the GFS. We all know which way this thing is heading. PDX is going to be the winner, I'll start taking bets with folks.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There is a chance the low could come into a sweet spot and deliver to the entire area, really has a good chance.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

maybe a hair of Nino climatology favors the GFS north and wetter solution?  I don't know spit balling.

I feel as though the Niño climatology would favor ICON-level south, all the way into Southern Oregon or Northern CA 

[LowerGarfield]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

No plotting on anyone. I thought GFS was mad 4 days ago. But if drunkle yells the same sh*t at you enough times and no one else can get their story straight, eventually you believe the drunk. 

 

Selfishly, the GFS nails me with snow..

There's a very good analogy for 2024 but I'm not going any further. Anyway I am on Team GFS!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

5 run trend on the GFS. We all know which way this thing is heading. PDX is going to be the winner, I'll start taking bets with folks.

This just looks like wobble to me. Columbia is the target. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The progression of the EURO looks right to me.  And no matter how much I want to be buried by snow, I just don't think it's going to happen.  I will probably need to be happy  with 1 or 2 inches before everything dries up.  At least it will stay around for a few days, so there's a positive.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There is a chance the low could come into a sweet spot and deliver to the entire area, really has a good chance.

Eugene to Bellingham!  Snow for everyone. no chance. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I feel as though the Niño climatology would favor ICON-level south, all the way into Southern Oregon or Northern CA 

are strong ninos the same as 'garden variety' ninos in these regards?  I do not know in this region, still learning

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Man that is beautiful for Western WA. Frame it.

 

all of WA except that area in Portland's sphere of influence.

[Mid Valley Duck]

More evidence to show it's outlierish solution

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I feel as though the Niño climatology would favor ICON-level south, all the way into Southern Oregon or Northern CA 

I find it interesting to think about how the suppressed jet/dominant STJ tendencies of an El Niño could possibly help tilt things in our favor during situations where cold air is in play like this.

[Perturbed Member]

GFS going pretty nuts with the precip rates tonight. Gonna be absolutely dumping massive wet flakes. Very unlikely to get widespread 4-6 inch totals as shown here but could see some really hefty totals in the hills. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This just looks like wobble to me. Columbia is the target. 

A wobble? Yesterday’s 18z had it near the northern part of Vancouver island at the same time.

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And the NAM and the JMA, and the GEM, and the ICON, and the UKMET, and all the others showing the southern solution! 
BOW DOWN TO THE KING GFS! 

Imagine if the NAVGEM beat all the big players.   It’s been steady on team GFS. 
 

[Chewbacca Defense]

15 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Sad Alaska/Horizon dumped them. I enjoyed flying in those, and especially the noise they made. Oh well. 

Maybe it is time to cut the plane talk as @snow_wizard requested, sad as it makes me. 

I suppose so, back to weather then.  It is plane to see that this event is going to run off the end of the runway for Whatcom County....sure the Frazier outflow will probably blow a few fuselage door plugs off, but anyone up here looking for an upgrade to first class in the snow department will sadly find  themselves sitting next to the lavatory. 

Could be worse, if that ice ends up hitting the WV like we keep seeing, it will be slicker than a pee-soaked lavatory floor, and that's just not fun for anyone/

Not sure how much more (frequent flyer) mileage I can get from these aviation puns so I guess I'll just call it quits for now.  Presumably the captain won't be turning off the fasten seat belt sign as we are still in for a rough (model) ride.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

5 run trend on the GFS. We all know which way this thing is heading. PDX is going to be the winner, I'll start taking bets with folks.

The only other model showing what the GFS shows is the NAVGEM. And there’s a reason why it’s never mentioned. It’s not that good of a model.

 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Imagine if the NAVGEM beat all the big players.   It’s been steady on team GFS. 
 

well it is run by the US Navy right?  for ocean storms.  not too far flung its similar in result of the GFS

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

GFS going pretty nuts with the precip rates tonight. Gonna be absolutely dumping massive wet flakes. Very unlikely to get widespread 4-6 inch totals as shown here but could see some really hefty totals in the hills. 

These situations with a rapidly developing small low and a saturated isothermal profile on the north end in the deformation zone can dump surprisingly heavy amounts of snow, particularly on the hills where it might start out as frozen precip.

[Parrot]

16 minutes ago, RCola said:

You can tell GFS is an American model. Pitting us against each other like this. 

I'd love to compromise with a solution that gives Seattle 2" and Portland 8" for Saturday. 

South lost the first war, they can lose another!

[Perturbed Member]

Not sure if this was already posted but the 12z GraphCast continues to look...the same?

SW WA/NW OR is on the northern edge. 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A wobble? Yesterday’s 18z had it near the northern part of Vancouver island at the same time.

I'm talking about location at landfall

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

GFS going pretty nuts with the precip rates tonight. Gonna be absolutely dumping massive wet flakes. Very unlikely to get widespread 4-6 inch totals as shown here but could see some really hefty totals in the hills. 

Yeah, to be frank and fair the GFS' idiocy also extends to our setup tonight down here. Obviously being more than a little generous.

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There is a chance the low could come into a sweet spot and deliver to the entire area, really has a good chance.

I would love a Columbia river landing of that low

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The only other model showing what the GFS shows is the NAVGEM. And there’s a reason why it’s never mentioned. It’s not that good of a model.

 

The Spire gives WA a good dumping on the past two runs.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Parrot said:

South lost the first war, they can lose another!

Also for the Pac 12 championship (and regular season).

[Kayla]

GFS shows snowfall with temps of -10F for 48hrs straight here. Yeah, it's probably fallen off its rocker.

[SouthHillFrosty]

GFS isn't trending south. Looks like a wobble to me. Consistently in the same 20-25 miles landing range. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, to be frank and fair the GFS' idiocy also extends to our setup tonight down here. Obviously being more than a little generous.

yeah but at this time short term models are more reliable for tonight.  GFS more for pattern recognition and its right on that, no?

[LowerGarfield]

Can someone explain how composite reflectivity works? How is is different from the regular maps?

[Parrot]

11 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

More evidence to show it's outlierish solution

Of course its going to be an outlier relative to a different model!