January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[FroYoBro]

Been a wet and breezy day. Only at 43 degrees right now. True western Oregon winter weather with a chance at seeing my first snow of the season tonight! 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Power was out here for a few hours, looks like the east side of North Bend is still without power. Exciting weather isn't just coming, it's here!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Less for everyone it seems (specifically up north). However, there isn't a uptik for down south so idk lol

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting discussion from Pendleton NWS.  Pretty technical, and I don't understand all of it.  I am pretty much neutral in the Oregon vs Washington debate, since I get more snow than anyone in the forum from Washington or Oregon (A1Tahoe definitely gets more than all of us).  I would love to see the northern solution, but would be happy for the Oregon posters if it goes there.  Anyway . . .

Guidance is in good agreement with the active pattern through the 
weekend before a respite arrives early in the workweek, but 
differences in the upper trough's strength and path arise regarding 
the Friday and Saturday systems. The GFS is weaker and more north 
for both systems, which pushes Friday's system more north into 
Washington and Saturday's system right through the Pacific 
Northwest. This provides a wetter, warmer, and windier outcome with 
the GFS than the ECWMF. 
These discrepancies are visualized via the 500mb EOF Patterns, which show a 50-60% ensemble variance regarding strength and location of both synoptic features. 

Analyzing both the cluster 500 mb heights and cluster phase space provides additional confidence in the GFS scenario as more ensemble members align with the GFS outcome and the deterministic solution is better represented by the ensemble mean. Thus, the NBM was utilized through the extended period to provide an appropriately weighted scenario, with the expectation of a slight trend to wetter/snowier conditions and warmer temperatures over future runs

[Chewbacca Defense]

not sure what happened with the wind today, it was quite windy this morning for about 2 hours, then nothing.....the wind advisory runs until 10pm

[runninthruda206]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting discussion from Pendleton NWS.  Pretty technical, and I don't understand all of it.  I am pretty much neutral in the Oregon vs Washington debate, since I get more snow than anyone in the forum from Washington or Oregon (A1Tahoe definitely gets more than all of us).  I would love to see the northern solution, but would be happy for the Oregon posters if it goes there.  Anyway . . .

Guidance is in good agreement with the active pattern through the 
weekend before a respite arrives early in the workweek, but 
differences in the upper trough's strength and path arise regarding 
the Friday and Saturday systems. The GFS is weaker and more north 
for both systems, which pushes Friday's system more north into 
Washington and Saturday's system right through the Pacific 
Northwest. This provides a wetter, warmer, and windier outcome with 
the GFS than the ECWMF. 
These discrepancies are visualized via the 500mb EOF Patterns, which show a 50-60% ensemble variance regarding strength and location of both synoptic features. 

Analyzing both the cluster 500 mb heights and cluster phase space provides additional confidence in the GFS scenario as more ensemble members align with the GFS outcome and the deterministic solution is better represented by the ensemble mean. Thus, the NBM was utilized through the extended period to provide an appropriately weighted scenario, with the expectation of a slight trend to wetter/snowier conditions and warmer temperatures over future runs

Very interesting.  

[theRunner]

Is there just not enough precip headed for Seattle area to see considerable snow? Seems quite dry 

[North_County]

I feel like we've been talking about this weekend's possible event for like 6 weeks now. 

[westcoastexpat]

A word of caution with the snow totals maps, especially for Seattle south, the GFS has a period of sleet/mixed precip and will count it all as accumulating snow even though it would actually do the reverse (i.e. eat away at accumulations)

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Power was out here for a few hours, looks like the east side of North Bend is still without power. Exciting weather isn't just coming, it's here!

at tim's house?

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, North_County said:

I feel like we've been talking about this weekend's possible event for like 6 weeks now. 

we kinda have

[fubario]

35 minutes ago, Kayla said:

We've got ourselves a good'ol fashioned OR and WA forum showdown!

I'm Sounders 'til I die

I'm Sounders 'til I die

I know I am, I'm sure I am I

I'm Sounders 'til I die

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, North_County said:

I feel like we've been talking about this weekend's possible event for like 6 weeks now. 

All started last Thursday. Will be almost as long before the event actually arrives.

[MossMan]

Pass fun! 

[SeanNyberg]

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

Apologies people can’t be as smart and as well informed as you are. 
 

as for the “worst of the worst”. It doesn’t seem any different than any other event.

but you clearly know best.

[SnowWillarrive]

14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting discussion from Pendleton NWS.  Pretty technical, and I don't understand all of it.  I am pretty much neutral in the Oregon vs Washington debate, since I get more snow than anyone in the forum from Washington or Oregon (A1Tahoe definitely gets more than all of us).  I would love to see the northern solution, but would be happy for the Oregon posters if it goes there.  Anyway . . .

Guidance is in good agreement with the active pattern through the 
weekend before a respite arrives early in the workweek, but 
differences in the upper trough's strength and path arise regarding 
the Friday and Saturday systems. The GFS is weaker and more north 
for both systems, which pushes Friday's system more north into 
Washington and Saturday's system right through the Pacific 
Northwest. This provides a wetter, warmer, and windier outcome with 
the GFS than the ECWMF. 
These discrepancies are visualized via the 500mb EOF Patterns, which show a 50-60% ensemble variance regarding strength and location of both synoptic features. 

Analyzing both the cluster 500 mb heights and cluster phase space provides additional confidence in the GFS scenario as more ensemble members align with the GFS outcome and the deterministic solution is better represented by the ensemble mean. Thus, the NBM was utilized through the extended period to provide an appropriately weighted scenario, with the expectation of a slight trend to wetter/snowier conditions and warmer temperatures over future runs

Sounds like they have more faith in the GFS

[Parrot]

10 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

Do you have any examples? Seems all pretty lighthearted

[SouthHillFrosty]

Does the NWS usually favor the Euro or GFS in a model showdown? I know we have the NBM which is good. Just didn't know if they have shown a preference in the past in the PNW or given them equal weight.

 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Apologies people can’t be as smart and as well informed as you are. 
 

as for the “worst of the worst”. It doesn’t seem any different than any other event.

but you clearly know best.

My farts don't stink.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Sounds like they have more faith in the GFS

Just like the Portland forecast office did last February…

[Olive1010]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Does the NWS usually favor the Euro or GFS in a model showdown? I know we have the NBM which is good. Just didn't know if they have shown a preference in the past in the PNW or given them equal weight.

 

Which one is the Euro on pivotal weather?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

I can't possibly eye roll harder at this post. People are just having fun sharing maps and model riding. The difference in models provides vibrant debate. Sorry we are not all as perfect as Mr. Big Brain. 

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

Your overbearing need to try and preach and tell people how to feel or interpret things is kind of annoying honestly. The forum is fine the way it is. We don’t need your long monologues anyways. 

[Olive1010]

Does anyone think there'll be accumulating snow down to the valley snow? Or just some slush

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Does the NWS usually favor the Euro or GFS in a model showdown? I know we have the NBM which is good. Just didn't know if they have shown a preference in the past in the PNW or given them equal weight.

 

They use the NBM I think which favors the GFS.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

They use the NBM I think which favors the GFS.

The NBM favors whichever model has the highest skill score over the past several weeks. 

[Winterdog]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

My farts don't stink.

I've heard otherwise from friends in Colorado

[MikeInEverett]

13 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Your overbearing need to try and preach and tell people how to feel or interpret things is kind of annoying honestly. The forum is fine the way it is. We don’t need your long monologues anyways. 

THANK YOU BROTHER!!!

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Your overbearing need to try and preach and tell people how to feel or interpret things is kind of annoying honestly. The forum is fine the way it is. We don’t need your long monologues anyways. 

It's the moral grandstanding for me  

[Deweydog]

I miss him already.

[the_convergence_zone]

If the GFS has a million fans, I'm one of them.
If the GFS has one fan, that one is me.
If the GFS has no fans, then I'm no longer alive.
If the entire world is against the GFS, then I'm against the entire world. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The NBM favors whichever model has the highest skill score over the past several weeks. 

Ah, good to know. Thanks

[BlvuSumit]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Your overbearing need to try and preach and tell people how to feel or interpret things is kind of annoying honestly. The forum is fine the way it is. We don’t need your long monologues anyways. 

I said this 4 days ago and he attacked me saying i had no hope and knew nothing. I let it go because i didn't care.

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Does anyone think there'll be accumulating snow down to the valley snow? Or just some slush

Tonight? Probably a thump of heavy wet snow down to the sea level wherever that heavy band sets up (probably PDX metro). These situations are fairly dynamic lift-wise so precip rates will be high on the north side of the strengthening low. Just depends on how fast it starts sticking.

[MikeInEverett]

Maybe he’ll forgive us if we start discussing the CFS more

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, BlvuSumit said:

I like the optimism for Puget Sound. 

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

NBM for the win