January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When it comes to my snow…I’m always DEAD serious…

do you own snow?

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Still south the ECMWF/EPS suite... its probably not done shifting north.  

Big takeaway is this isn’t going to be a Northern California special and someone in the PNW is going to get hit. 

[Olive1010]

Gonna be so sad if I wake up with nothing on the ground

[snow_wizard]

Models are really picking up on a second shot of cold now.  The 18z EPS was 2C colder around the 15th than the 12z, and this ICON is quite cold at that time.  This makes getting snow going into the cold even a bigger prize.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice jump north 

[Weiner Warrior]

Hmmm

[Doinko]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

Gonna be so sad if I wake up with nothing on the ground

I don't know if any snow will last until tomorrow morning, I think our best chance is around 10 to 2 for seeing snow on the ground briefly

[TT-SEA]

Just now, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

South winds still roaring! Holding steady at 38°F, 0.91” of rain for the day.

So strange to have the south wind roaring while there is a system moving inland to our south.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

GEM is a little north also 

[Requiem]

Portland people... (and EPSL people too to some extent)-- it's worth noting that several models are showing insanely strong easterly winds as the gradient rises on the Euro to as much as -15 mb PDX-DLS. There would be somewhat of a downslope element to thus as well. Could be a rough go east metro and west hills, I've actually never seen a model explicitly forecast gusts of over 70 mph for the Gorge.

[TT-SEA]

Also be nice if the power stopped flickering... I am recording the new episode of Fargo   A show with lots of winter weather scenes.   But frustratingly inconsistent... beautiful new fallen snow in one scene and then 10 minutes later in show time its all melting and dirty... then 10 minutes later its fresh white again.   I find it distracting.    My wife says she doesn't even notice it.   @Deweydogwould you be distracted?   

[Slushy Inch]

Gfs still going with snow tomorrow. Trough did shift north.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Portland people... (and EPSL people too to some extent)-- it's worth noting that several models are showing insanely strong easterly winds as the gradient rises on the Euro to as much as -15 mb PDX-DLS. There would be somewhat of a downslope element to thus as well. Could be a rough go east metro and west hills, I've actually never seen a model explicitly forecast gusts of over 70 mph for the Gorge.

Should be fun!

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Gonna be so sad if I wake up with nothing on the ground

I wouldn’t expect much. It looks like things might be slightly too far north tonight for Oregon people. 

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Hmmm

Looks like models have been trending that snow north tonight.

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Portland people... (and EPSL people too to some extent)-- it's worth noting that several models are showing insanely strong easterly winds as the gradient rises on the Euro to as much as -15 mb PDX-DLS. There would be somewhat of a downslope element to thus as well. Could be a rough go east metro and west hills, I've actually never seen a model explicitly forecast gusts of over 70 mph for the Gorge.

Saturday?

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So strange to have the south wind roaring while there is a system moving inland to our south.  

whats the mechanics causing that?  unusual, yea?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This should be the run where the gfs moves a good click south for the eventually Astoria land fall.

 

 

[Cloud]

lol. This is stressful.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So strange to have the south wind roaring while there is a system moving inland to our south.  

The power flickering is obnoxious today, especially with two young kids. My kindergartner had a full school day in the dark but it’s a whole ‘nother story when the power goes out in the evening and it’s pitch black. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Why does southWestern WA (Longview) get so much snow compared to Portland. Aren't they similar elevations?

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also be nice if the power stopped flickering... I am recording the new episode of Fargo   A show with lots of winter weather scenes.   But frustratingly inconsistent... beautiful new fallen snow in one scene and then 10 minutes later in show time its all melting and dirty... then 10 minutes later its fresh white again.   I find it distracting.    My wife says she doesn't even notice it.   @Deweydogwould you be distracted?   

It's a good season.

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

do you own snow?

Let's be honest. I've caught myself calling it "my snow" this week when talking to my wife about future events. Past or present doesn't count.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This should be the run where the gfs moves a good click north for the eventually south tip of Vancouver Island land fall.

FTFY.

[The Winter Warlock]

All snow belongs to the Winter Warlock, and he says TREND NORTH.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

whats the mechanics causing that?  unusual, yea?

Need one of the smarter people to explain it... unusual for sure.    When systems move inland to the south its usually either calm here or there is an east wind.     Can't remember a set up like this with a roaring south wind.

[Weiner Warrior]

A little better on artic front snow for Seattle

[Kayla]

GFS is gonna be cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cmc north for sure

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2-3” on silver falls highway on the south end of the park. None here when I got home but it’s coming down a bit now, ground is covered and kids are hoping for no school tomorrow. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

do you own snow?

Yes. 

[Requiem]

GFS is definitely more aggressive w the cold 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

do you own snow?

Effectively, yes, though it’s more of an entitlement than legal ownership. Areas north of Everett are entitled to a minimum of 12"/winter.

Thank you for asking and remember I don't make the rules I just report the rules.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Big shocker another southern shift by the GFS

[bainbridgekid]

I’m liking the chances of more snow around the Sound with the arctic front Thursday night than most models show.

Arctic fronts end up dry when they sweep through fast with no time for convergence. With it limping in slowly from the North and the next storm already approaching to our SW Friday I like the chance of convergence surprises of 2-4” where it stalls and trace-1” most other spots. Best chance is hills North of Seattle but could be interesting just about anywhere IMO. Moisture in these setups are notoriously hard for models to handle. 

[Requiem]

It will be very cathartic to see my 2/2021 prediction come true pls models

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

A little better on artic front snow for Seattle

That includes Wednesday snow!

[TT-SEA]

Significant jump south on GFS.   

[Doinko]

ICON nails Salem with 2 big snowstorms

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And there it is, Seattle lost this one.