January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Saturday and Sunday... totally sunny weekend from Portland norrthward.

 

[Phishy Wx]

Euro insists the cold is the story, I kinda agree at least from the east side perspective.  this is a pretty deep arctic air mass thats getting a little more west in its setup than usual.  seems like it's sinking in from the north almost as much as its coming from the ENE over here.  Usually our biggest blasts come down the Purcell Trench thru Bonner Ferry and Sandpoint to Post Falls this seems to have a more Northerly component at least off the surface.  Suppression City.  Break out the chapstick, lotion, sunglasses and long johns

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yet. Don’t forget this is still Tuesday…We are still several days away from this unfolding. 

It will look different in 48 hours.

-Capt Oblivious

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It will look different in 48 hours.

-Capt Oblivious

You think suppression wins?   I mean we are just 60 hours from this whole moisture/cold air interaction taking place on Friday.  

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Saturday and Sunday... totally sunny weekend from Portland norrthward.

 

How do the lows look?

[snow_wizard]

No doubt this ECMWF run was a downer for people wanting snow in the Seattle area.  I was confident it would make a move toward the GFS and it didn't.  Anything is still possible, but this is certainly disappointing.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like a true regional event is shaping up: Regionwide shafting.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It will look different in 48 hours.

-Capt Oblivious

Should be clear what's happening by Tuesday. The 16th.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow from Friday evening through Saturday evening.     Maybe nobody gets much snow.   Did not expect that.  

 

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Euro is very dry. The GFS is world's apart with track, landfall and QPF with that system. The euro doesnt even show the surface low out ahead of the parent low.

Still about 72 hours away from this system arriving. I see a windshield wiper effect. I don’t see the models going any further south. As we get closer I see the EURO/UKMET reversing course and GFS/GEM meeting them somewhere in the middle. Then the final forecast will have the northern precipitation shield extend further north. The first storm of February 2014 is a good example of this and there was more juice with it than forecasted. Same with January 2017. I’m expecting more surprises the next few days.

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow from Friday evening through Saturday evening.     Maybe nobody gets much snow.   Did not expect that.  

 

4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, I think there's a good chance at the moment that this ends up being much ado about nothing as it trends drier for everybody. Definitely noticed a tendency for a bit less offshore cyclogenesis and less dynamic phasing of the energy on the more southward models like the ICON and UKMET, so you see a lot more blank looking snow maps here as that thing kind of just stumbles out of the picture.

You could see it on a lot of the guidance earlier. Really seeing a lot of momentum towards a much less dynamic system as the latitude shifts. Probably gonna be the way this rolls.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Still about 72 hours away from this system arriving. I see a windshield wiper effect. I don’t see the models going any further south. As we get closer I see the EURO/UKMET reversing course and GFS/GEM meeting them somewhere in the middle. Then the final forecast will have the northern precipitation shield extend further north. The first storm of February 2014 is a good example of this and there was more juice with it than forecasted. Same with January 2017. I’m expecting more surprises the next few days.

Good take.    Could still work out for Portland.   

[Doinko]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Still about 72 hours away from this system arriving. I see a windshield wiper effect. I don’t see the models going any further south. As we get closer I see the EURO/UKMET reversing course and GFS/GEM meeting them somewhere in the middle. Then the final forecast will have the northern precipitation shield extend further north. The first storm of February 2014 is a good example of this and there was more juice with it than forecasted. Same with January 2017. I’m expecting more surprises the next few days.

This was the WRF GFS forecast for the 2/6/2014 storm the day before, the same storm that dropped 6" of snow here. I wouldn't mind a blast like what the Euro shows though

[Requiem]

This run features a rather absurd 15 mb PDX-DLS gradient, as well as a 32 mb OTH-GEG gradient... that would be pretty insane. Also explicitly models gusts in excess of 75 mph in the Gorge, which I've never seen from a global model.

[LowerGarfield]

55 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

NWS going against the Euro for my forecast area 

 

 

Exactly what Spokane did this evening before the GFS even ran. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

You think suppression wins?   I mean we are just 60 hours from this whole moisture/cold air interaction taking place on Friday.  

I think the rule of thumb that frontogenesis and WAA will meander further north than modeled will hold true. Of course that’s assuming we don’t see the suppressive side flip in the next couple days to a more explosive solution like the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doinko said:

This was the WRF GFS forecast for the 2/6/2014 storm the day before, the same storm that dropped 6" of snow here. I wouldn't mind a blast like what the Euro shows though

Well... the WRF is garbage.   What did the ECMWF show?

[Kolk1604]

We still have the Hi-Res models once they come in range. It would be a let down though if the Euro is wrong. 

 

[Requiem]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Well... the WRF is garbage.   What did the ECMWF show?

The Euro also showed lows going south of the region until maybe a day or two before the event.

[van city]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like a true regional event is shaping up: Regionwide shafting.

Regional alright. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

You could see it on a lot of the guidance earlier. Really seeing a lot of momentum towards a much less dynamic system as the latitude shifts. Probably gonna be the way this rolls.

I definitely don't have that confidence. This is pretty atypical, from both a modeling and pattern perspective.

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I think the rule of thumb that frontogenesis and WAA will meander further north than modeled will hold true. Of course that’s assuming we don’t see the suppressive side flip in the next couple days to a more explosive solution like the GFS.

The GFS while whiffing horribly on some big picture aspects of this might be getting that piece right. While it’s the opposite for the euro.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Requiem said:

The Euro also showed lows going south of the region until maybe a day or two before the event.

Jan 2011 vibes right there 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... the WRF is garbage.   What did the ECMWF show?

Euro showed a snowstorm the day before, but here's what models were showing on the 4th. What actually happened was a snowstorm Thursday afternoon:
 
As of now our RPM and GFS don’t really bring much of anything to the Portland area until late Friday night.  The new 00z ECMWF looks similar, so our forecast is staying that way. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It needs to trend south a little more, then @TigerWoodsLibido will be the big winner. And if @MossMan does really well with arctic front snow, my prophecy will be fulfilled!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good take.    Could still work out for Portland.   

 

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

This was the WRF GFS forecast for the 2/6/2014 storm the day before, the same storm that dropped 6" of snow here. I wouldn't mind a blast like what the Euro shows though

Another thing I’ll add is yeah at 5+ days out some models are more accurate than others. But I’ve seen at 3 days the GFS and EURO aren’t far apart in verification. The closer we get to the event the more agreement we will see. It’s actually good the GFS is way up north. Less of a chance for the current EURO/UKMET solutions to be the final track.

[TT-SEA]

I remember the event in late February 2019 that hit Eugene and produced the famous pic of TWL sitting on the porch looking at the snow stayed suppressed as modeled.   I was sure that thing was going to end up here but it stayed way south.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You think suppression wins?   I mean we are just 60 hours from this whole moisture/cold air interaction taking place on Friday.  

It's almost like models have to wait for the cold air to start marching south and suppression begins before it knows wtf to do. There still is time for a last minute north shift.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's almost like models have to wait for the cold air to start marching south and suppression begins before it knows wtf to do. There still is time for a last minute north shift.

Personally I think the cold air won’t be as aggressive as advertised 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's almost like models have to wait for the cold air to start marching south and suppression begins before it knows wtf to do. There still is time for a last minute north shift.

Or for something else out there to form and get us! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's almost like models have to wait for the cold air to start marching south and suppression begins before it knows wtf to do. There still is time for a last minute north shift.

ironically it would require a more explosive low development off the coast lift everything north.   

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Jan 2011 vibes right there 

Well... sorta? That was mostly a nightmare if I recall because cyclogenesis screwed the pattern up and sent lows so far north that it turned into a minimal event in the end 

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yet. Don’t forget this is still Tuesday…We are still several days away from this unfolding. 

Somebody is going to score big. There will be surprises. I think everybody could get in on the action. A compromise between the ECMWF and GFS seems most likely. The snow field is always further north with these set ups than modeled. It would be almost unheard of for an arctic blast of this nature during a Nino and a -PDO to not deliver the goods.

A bit surprised at the enthusiasm level in here tonight. This is looking potentially historic for Seattle.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I definitely don't have that confidence. This is pretty atypical, from both a modeling and pattern perspective.

I'm sure there will be some more twists and turns. Just seems like a lot of momentum away from a scenario with juicy frontogenesis surrounding the low. Have to think the wetter guidance is still missing the boat a little, unfortunately. 

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember the event in late February 2019 that hit Eugene and produced the famous pic of TWL sitting on the porch looking at the snow stayed suppressed as modeled.   I was sure that thing was going to end up here but it stayed way south.    

The whole "it will trend north" belief has taken enough lumps recently to generally ignore it for me. At least in this case there's still some pretty different progressions across guidance so not a ton of confidence quite yet.

[DDDRWx]

Working on a project and noticed it got pretty quiet outside a while ago…voila!  Crazy really.  

[snow_wizard]

This run is going to pull off another cold shot about a week out.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Well... sorta? That was mostly a nightmare if I recall because cyclogenesis screwed the pattern up and sent lows so far north that it turned into a minimal event in the end 

Yeah that's what I meant. It was tracking south and then way too far north

[lowlandsnow]

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the ECMWF shows a slightly deeper and more well formed low than the GFS on Saturday morning.   So it seems like the ECMWF is already picking up on cyclogenesis.    There is not a massive difference here but the ECMWF seems more potent than the GFS by a small margin.  

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like a true regional event is shaping up: Regionwide shafting.

regional dry blast