January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

I'm surprised the OR folks aren't lighting this place up tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RayRay said:

I see that by the rate of posting that the Seattle people are not excited.

We probably still should be.  Probably the best January Arctic blast of this century so far is about to happen.  At least some snow with the Arctic front, and still a shot snow with big event.

[LowerGarfield]

34 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Tesla factory east of Reno tonight. approaching a foot of snow in like 5 hours 

Can confirm. Friend is in Sparks and is enjoying their snow.

[westcoastexpat]

NWS suggesting possibly up to 11" of snow by Sunday morning. Thinking some may be surprised yet.

January's back baby. We've been due and we're getting paid back hard.

[snow_wizard]

I suppose people might just be resting up before the big time stuff stuff about to happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 4 at Burns in SE Oregon. 10 at K Falls after a big snow dump this morning. 

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I suppose people might just be resting up before the big time stuff stuff about to happen.

WRF is forecasting 50mph gusts here while it's snowing in the teens, it could be crazy

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm surprised the OR folks aren't lighting this place up tonight.

Have you seen the models you know how terrifying this is for us to be on the doorstep of happening 

[Blizzard777]

14 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Mark Nelson mentioned wind gusts 70-90 mph at the west end of the Gorge. I don't think I have ever seen that before. That's dangerous. The wind chills are going to be extreme, maybe worse than 1989 when they were well below zero. That's when things stop being so exciting. 

Happened once while I was living in Troutdale Or. 

A few guest hit over 70 mph! I lost shingles  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I suppose people might just be resting up before the big time stuff stuff about to happen.

 

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If tonight's ECMWF can come in slightly north of the 18z Seattle could still have a shot at some snow with the weekend event.

December 1996 is another event that comes to mind that went way north at the last minute.  Talking about the initial snow and cold air invasion on that.

Posts like this is probably why Oregon folks are being quiet. 

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose people might just be resting up before the big time stuff stuff about to happen.

Definitely. Surprised at the lack of enthusiasm around here for this high end winter blast but figure people must be taking it easy before all the fun starts. Going to be a pretty big weekend and probably for weeks to come. Models definitely hinting at repeated cold shots. Could be very snowy too.

[Sandy rocks]

The Barlow Toll Road ended near here. They say that the Barlow road was steeper and more difficult than any other part of the trail. They had to lower the wagons down the hillside with ropes.

[RayRay]

What time does the arctic air start coming in tomorrow?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Have you seen the models you know how terrifying this is for us to be on the doorstep of happening 

It could easily be wicked for PDX.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RayRay said:

What time does the arctic air start coming in tomorrow?

Right around sunset or a bit earlier.

[westcoastexpat]

This is definitely going to be a January for the history books. A region wide event during a strong Nino. We've all earned this. Goes to show that you absolutely can't count out a strong Nino. This could be a historic month for many.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

NWS suggesting possibly up to 11" of snow by Sunday morning. Thinking some may be surprised yet.

January's back baby. We've been due and we're getting paid back hard.

Olympia is preparing for 0-14”.  

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I'm all in on a historic event for us Oregonians! Salem could be ZR storm and Portland with the blizzard. Crippling event it could be all around. 

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely. Surprised at the lack of enthusiasm around here for this high end winter blast but figure people must be taking it easy before all the fun starts. Going to be a pretty big weekend and probably for weeks to come. Models definitely hinting at repeated cold shots. Could be very snowy too.

I’m right on the line of a foot or nothing.  I am not trying to upset the weather gods

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely. Surprised at the lack of enthusiasm around here for this high end winter blast but figure people must be taking it easy before all the fun starts. Going to be a pretty big weekend and probably for weeks to come. Models definitely hinting at repeated cold shots. Could be very snowy too.

Oregon posters are giving the Washington posters a moment of silence on the loss of their exciting weekend. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely. Surprised at the lack of enthusiasm around here for this high end winter blast but figure people must be taking it easy before all the fun starts. Going to be a pretty big weekend and probably for weeks to come. Models definitely hinting at repeated cold shots. Could be very snowy too.

I think people are somewhat let down by how far south everything looks for the big snow.  No matter how you slice it though this will be a noteworthy cold wave.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely. Surprised at the lack of enthusiasm around here for this high end winter blast but figure people must be taking it easy before all the fun starts. Going to be a pretty big weekend and probably for weeks to come. Models definitely hinting at repeated cold shots. Could be very snowy too.

I learned long ago to keep my mouith shut if I didn't have anything nice to say.  I'm lurking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Serious question here. Are we looking at a gap gorge based wind or a full on mountain wave pattern where the offshore flow pours over the cascade crest? 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

This is definitely going to be a January for the history books. A region wide event during a strong Nino. We've all earned this. Goes to show that you absolutely can't count out a strong Nino. This could be a historic month for many.

The best strong Nino January I can think of is Jan 1973, and that was pretty weak.  This is quite exceptional from that point of view.

[westcoastexpat]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think people are somewhat let down by how far south everything looks for the big snow.  No matter how you slice it though this will be a noteworthy cold wave.

It's definitely going to shift north. Happens every time. Going to be a big one for Seattle AND Portland. And we'll all be in the deep freeze for potentially weeks with lots of snow on the ground.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Serious question here. Are we looking at a gap gorge based wind or a full on mountain wave pattern where the offshore flow pours over the cascade crest? 

I'm thinking gap.  Arctic air behaves very differently than a regular air mass.

[Requiem]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm surprised the OR folks aren't lighting this place up tonight.

Definitely enthusiastic about what's to come but I've learned not to say anything until snow starts flying. That being said-- looks gnarly.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

It's definitely going to shift north. Happens every time. Going to be a big one for Seattle AND Portland. And we'll all be in the deep freeze for potentially weeks with lots of snow on the ground.

This is very bold for you.  I know for a fact you are not prone to be hyperbolic.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Have you seen the models you know how terrifying this is for us to be on the doorstep of happening 

So much this. It’s almost coming together too perfectly - since 2017 seems like we’ve gotten the snow scraps and some crappy ice storms, so maybe we’re due. And on the anniversary even! 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose people might just be resting up before the big time stuff stuff about to happen.

Wherever this hits it will be one of the most potant snow storms to hit the northwest in 50 years minimum 

 Remember I said it first. There will be over 18 inch totals from this.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Serious question here. Are we looking at a gap gorge based wind or a full on mountain wave pattern where the offshore flow pours over the cascade crest? 

Almost entirely gap. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Olympia is preparing for 0-14”.  

The NWS hedges more than ever before. Burned too many times.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think people are somewhat let down by how far south everything looks for the big snow.  No matter how you slice it though this will be a noteworthy cold wave.

I think people have bust fatigue from 2020, 2021 (relative bust), 2022, and now 2024. Last weenie post and I'll then be excited for Oregon!

[GobBluth]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely enthusiastic about what's to come but I've learned not to say anything until snow starts flying. That being said-- looks gnarly.

Easy to be enthusiastic about the potential, but we've been burned way too many times, and not having the euro totally on board doesn't help.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is very bold for you.  I know for a fact you are not prone to be hyperbolic.

Ever since Fred had a chat with him he has gone full Jim! 

[Sandy rocks]

In 1996 the arctic front never dropped down here. It wasn't that the storm went north. We did get an ice storm right after Christmas and the entire city of Gresham lost power. Usually only a residential area loses power. Of course, that was before all the stores had generators.

[Doinko]

Wow, the GRAF showing 56 mph gusts here

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

How I feel waiting for the historic blizzard to show up

[MWG]

In Medford nothing worthy happening. Temps are just going up,  like Saturday the high is expected to be 47F lol. Tomorrow morning more likely will be icy roads 

[theRunner]

Are the odds still extremely low for Seattle to get anything out of this?