January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Chewbacca Defense]

40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

HRDPS trending moister IMBY, too.

[Cloud]

I feel like this is pretty much resolved. Good for PDX folks! 

[van city]

Jim declared GFS as the big winner, obviously it's the big loser.

[MossMan]

It will be interesting but the forecasted lows to not appear to get colder than what I have already experienced here in the prior two seasons. Man if we had deep snow cover with this airmass…I possibly could have broken my all time personal record of -4 from December 2008! 

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

New 3km NAM looks even more sparse for today...

I’m Blessed with a strip of gray! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Whether we get snow or not today I am pretty excited about this. In my lifetime I’ve never seen an arctic outbreak on the potential scale of this one. I do think that it’ll snow in the next few days also still…but either way this is going to be fun to see. 

I see your point but I'm disappointed with the outcome. To get this cold and have a 990 low come into the area is extremely hard to do and I might die before it happens again so that sux. This pattern is what delivers all the historical snows we read about in Seattle.  I would trade this storm for all the 33 degree snow I get that is gone in 4 hrs. Just an honest view on it.

[SouthHillFrosty]

How do I break it to my kid that it doesn’t snow in El Niños like everyone hyped it up lol? But fr, excited for this epic Portland snow. 

[Sandy rocks]

Hopefully that ice being shown doesn't appear. It is so damaging. Even a small amount of ice makes it impossible to drive in. The cold might push farther south but i suppose someone is going to get the ice.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Sounds like a loved one has died.

It might have only been about 2 week old relationship, but we feel like we have known this loved one for decades…And then poof, they leave you and run off to Portland overnight. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

All TV stations compared in Portland and Eugene. Some notes:

 

KOIN is the coldest for Saturday with a high of 23. I think 20-22 is doable.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I see your point but I'm disappointed with the outcome. To get this cold and have a 990 low come into the area is extremely hard to do and I might die before it happens again so that sux. This pattern is what delivers all the historical snows we read about in Seattle.  I would trade this storm for all the 33 degree snow I get that is gone in 4 hrs. Just an honest view on it.

I understand that some people are disappointed because most people care about snow, do get what you’re saying. I’m a stat guy so I’m geeked about it. Excited even if it doesn’t snow. Just will have to see if any surprises come up the next couple days. I’m sure we will get some snow next year or the year after if this doesn’t work out! 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How do I break it to my kid that it doesn’t snow in El Niños like everyone hyped it up lol? But fr, excited for this epic Portland snow. 

Your son needs to get off social media! He can’t always believe the hype. See you tonight 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Portland!!

Currently 4F here after 4" of snow last night. Arctic front is still set to arrive here this evening along with another 3-5" of snowfall. Beginning tonight, it will likely not rise above zero until Monday. Windchill Advisories are up through Sunday with wind chills of -50F.

I say this every year…Wish I was your neighbor! 

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Slightly colder in the WV on Monday according to the GFS. Don't even think about temps above freezing. 

Same with CMC.

[Olive1010]

Do you guys think they'll either have school closed tomorrow or do a half day? Because no one wants to get stranded at school. Because the snow starts in the afternoon

[Prairiedog]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Total precip now through 4a Saturday on the HRRR. 

Total snow: It has snow starting all the way to Eugene, the last frame that has switch to ZR up to the Lane/Linn county line with the snow extending to about Wilsonville in the South Metro. 

It shows Seattle going below freezing about 4-5pm today, PDX around 9a tomorrow, and Salem 3-4p tomorrow. 

How are the 850's looking Fri night through Saturday?  Will it support all snow at least to Salem or no?  Might be borderline with some slightly milder air sandwiching in midlevels. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I say this every year…Wish I was your neighbor! 

Ever tried to start a car on a -10˚F morning?

[MikeInEverett]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It might have only been about 2 week old relationship, but we feel like we have known this loved one for decades…And then poof, they leave you and run off to Portland overnight. 

One week ago right now we were about to witness one of the greatest Euro runs of all time. If we only knew what would actually end up happening. Truly a sad time.

[TacomaWx]

Snowing here at Highway 18. Wasn’t looking at radar but fun to see! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-53 now at Watson Lake. 

Thats almost the coldest i have seen up there. -56 i think the last big blast.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, already this much snow by Saturday at 4am and still dumping snow

 

 

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Amazing stuff.

It doesn’t snow much in January moderate/strong EL Niños but when it does it REALLY snows. ️  

[Sandy rocks]

Those forecasts on the TV stations are always head scratching. What is slowly drying cold? 

[antipex]

10 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Portland!!

Currently 4F here after 4" of snow last night. Arctic front is still set to arrive here this evening along with another 3-5" of snowfall. Beginning tonight, it will likely not rise above zero until Monday. Windchill Advisories are up through Sunday with wind chills of -50F.

Beautiful! We go below zero tonight and likely won’t rise above zero until Sunday, possibly Monday. Snowing hard right now and 20 ahead of the real cold.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, van city said:

Jim declared GFS as the big winner, obviously it's the big loser.

For the models, it's push. The GFS caught on at the 500mb level earlier than the Euro. The Euro then was very insistence with the southern track while the GFS was trying to figure this thing out. Winner will be Oregon folks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Prairiedog said:

How are the 850's looking Fri night through Saturday?  Will it support all snow at least to Salem or no?  Might be borderline with some slightly milder air sandwiching in midlevels. 

I think Salem sees a little snow. I’m guessing from looking at the GFS snow and ZR maps that Salem could also get a ton of sleet. If someone has that map please post. I think Salem and Marion county see all three precip types. The more northern GFS/GEM tracks would be minimal snow at SLE, a NAM/ICON, Hrrr solution would be more snow. I think down to about Albany/Corvallis has a decent chance at seeing at least a little snow. It’s also pretty common for precip to start as snow a bit further south then modeled in these setups. January 7, 2017 is a good example, precip was expected to be ZR south of Salem and eugene got several inches of snow before. The changeover.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Do you guys think they'll either have school closed tomorrow or do a half day? Because no one wants to get stranded at school. Because the snow starts in the afternoon

Most schools will probably close preemptively tomorrow. Too much risk seeing as though we could be freezing up by 2-3 pm.

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Ever tried to start a car on a -10˚F morning?

As long as you have a good battery.....

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Portland!!

Currently 4F here after 4" of snow last night. Arctic front is still set to arrive here this evening along with another 3-5" of snowfall. Beginning tonight, it will likely not rise above zero until Monday. Windchill Advisories are up through Sunday with wind chills of -50F.

Euro hasn't backed off on the intensity of this air mass at all. Still showing -50 burgers in western MT tomorrow night.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Even the NAVGEM is catching on now.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I see your point but I'm disappointed with the outcome. To get this cold and have a 990 low come into the area is extremely hard to do and I might die before it happens again so that sux. This pattern is what delivers all the historical snows we read about in Seattle.  I would trade this storm for all the 33 degree snow I get that is gone in 4 hrs. Just an honest view on it.

If this the polar lobe would have just pushed out even another 50 miles offshore today it would have sent a bunch of snowy juice into us with the arctic front…50 stinkin miles…

[Blizzard777]

20 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

I'm not sure where I'm at in the 7 or 8 stages of grief. Probably mourning with some anger mixed in. So much time investing tracking this thing. Yesterday there was some hope, but overnight it vanished like Pacific moisture meeting a dry air mass.  Not even the possibility of virga.  Anyway, enjoy your snow Portland.  Sure hope Tiger gets a sub-freezing high.

Lol…..you’re right,  taking our only chance of Virga is depressing!  Never thought of it that way.  One step back on my own dealing with grief but then again I do have Lucy.  I added another chair for anyone who wants to join. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

One week ago right now we were about to witness one of the greatest Euro runs of all time. If we only knew what would actually end up happening. Truly a sad time.

I threw that sumbitch on the back of the shirts it was so dang nice 

[bainbridgekid]

Seattle radar overall pretty dry, but a CZ of sorts looks to be forming between South Seattle and Enumclaw. 
 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

As long as you have a good battery.....

I would take the battery out of the car and keep it in my dorm room overnight so I had the benefit of a warm battery delivering a full charge.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Talk about thread the needle, pretty narrow area of heavy snow and whoever is in that spot with the best lift is going to get a real treat. Easy 18-30 inch totals coming. 

[iFred]

14 minutes ago, van city said:

Jim declared GFS as the big winner, obviously it's the big loser.

Don’t you have your own forum to be weird in?

[RentonHill]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Seattle radar overall pretty dry, but a CZ of sorts looks to be forming between South Seattle and Enumclaw. 
 

Nothing falling here yet

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Nice upslope for the Port Angeles guy.  Also look for snow squalls to develop on the outflow boundary north of Nanaimo tonight. 

Winds shifted west last night. Temps rose from 28 to 36 and dew point dropped to mid 20s. I don’t think anyone gets any snow from this front. No moisture.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro hasn't backed off on the intensity of this air mass at all. Still showing -50 burgers in western MT tomorrow night.

should be using short term models at this point.  most still showing -25+ in NW MT, some -40

[TacomaWx]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Seattle radar overall pretty dry, but a CZ of sorts looks to be forming between South Seattle and Enumclaw. 
 

light snow here so far but it’s picking up here near the highway 18/I-90 interchange.