January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Winterdog]

My radar shows the arctic front as a stationary front.  It is seeming to be hung up at the border.  The front is moving quickly down through eastern Washington for sure.

[Tyler Mode]

Nice drop at Bham

[Meatyorologist]

Overall radar coverage has been leagues better than forecast this morning. Whatever kind of precipitation that is occurring over Seattle is forecast to persist, or even intensify, into the evening, then dissipate overnight. If we can overlap a couple hours of light-moderate snow with temperatures at or below freezing behind the Arctic front, that could set us up with 0.5-2" of snow heading into one of the coldest clear air Arctic airmasses of the 21st century.

Just asking for something measurable. Even 0.5" would be enough to whiten the landscape, deepen the cold, and make that cold more difficult to scour out when the westerlies kick in.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You can see a small convergence zone now on radar sinking south with the actual Arctic front just south and east of Bellingham.

You can see the arctic front on the visible sat loop as well.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Winterdog said:

My radar shows the arctic front as a stationary front.  It is seeming to be hung up at the border.  The front is moving quickly down through eastern Washington for sure.

Lol it’s about to be punching into skagit county. Moving pretty quick for a 21st century arctic outbreak. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Very reminiscent of last year for me. 18 days of snow for 16 inches. A lot of traces and half inches Still nice to have snow

That’s kinda blah.

[bainbridgekid]

BLI dropped from 37 at 10:05 to 30 at 10:30 and wind switched from NW to NE. Arctic Front just hit them.

[Front Ranger]

Euro is close to a clipper at day 5. Keeps things chilly for longer.

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Phil said:

If the arctic front is up @ BLI I guess that’s just a low level dry pocket west of Mr. Vernon then?

Interesting. So many microclimatic quirks.

The convergence zone downstream of Vancouver island is the dominant feature there. Usually it is downstream of the Olympic Mtns but in WNW flow you can get the dominant convergence to be downstream of Vancouver Island instead. And it seems to be a double band right now for further fun times! 

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You can see a small convergence zone now on radar sinking south with the actual Arctic front just south and east of Bellingham.

Nice! I’m so hoping it puts on a good rowdy show here as it passes though! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Euro is close to a clipper at day 5. Keeps things chilly for longer.

ECMWF kindly waits until one week from tonight to blast us with SW flow and rain.    The pattern evolution is obviously going back to a Nino-like set up... but that transition is still something to watch.    

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the arctic front is up @ BLI I guess that’s just a low level dry pocket west of Mr. Vernon then?

Interesting. So many microclimatic quirks.

Maryland does crabcakes and football.  We do microclimates.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Apparently it’s 39 degrees at home so we wouldn’t get much out of what’s coming down right now. Worried this will be our only precip and then it’ll be too dry by the time it actually gets cold enough.

That is unfortunately what the models have said for your area. Some brief slushy accumulations then the sun comes out and melts it before the arctic front arrives.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the arctic front is up @ BLI I guess that’s just a low level dry pocket west of Mr. Vernon then?

Interesting. So many microclimatic quirks.

Nah I think that's some moderated Arctic air out ahead of the subfreezing temps. There is no 'Mt Vernon dry pocket' unfortunately; I reckon those folks would love wetbulbing to 28F everytime it rains!

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That is unfortunately what the models have said for your area. Some brief slushy accumulations then the sun comes out and melts it before the arctic front arrives.

Yep. Raining at home now. The dusting has already melted away.

[Tyler Mode]

Next week looking at odds again...Euro on left, GFS on right.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Maryland does crabcakes and football.  We do microclimates.

Replace football with humidity and you’re on the money.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Maryland does crabcakes and football.  We do microclimates.

I was born in Maryland and my mom was there to the age of 18, she can make amazing crab cakes from an old family recipe.

[Deweydog]

Walter is WIRED tracking the front’s progress.

[High Desert Mat?]

Temp is up to 35 here with about 4” on the ground still. Latest news thinks we get another 15” or so by Saturday night with temps plummeting to below zero. High Saturday is just forecasted to be 6. 

[Front Ranger]

Seattle meet up group later.

[Randyc321]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shifted north! 

 

And how much can stuff change in 63 hrs?   A lot.  We still don't know.  

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was born in Maryland and my mom was there to the age of 18, she can make amazing crab cakes from an old family recipe.

my wife is from Maryland, same.  

[Snownerd3000]

Me sitting between these two bands

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Seattle meet up group later.

Its probably just going to be @RentonHill and I.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

First cloud of the day, to my NE. It’s coming.

[Lynnwoodweather]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Me sitting between these two bands

For real brother. <Sigh>

[Cold Snap]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That happened here over the last 20 minutes... totally stopped now though.   

Yeah it’s pretty much stopped here too.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Its probably just going to be @RentonHill and I.

I wanted to come but my kid got sick today and I don’t have a backup

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Its probably just going to be @RentonHill and I.

Bummer. If I was in Seattle, I'd strongly consider attending.

[iFred]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF kindly waits until one week from tonight to blast us with SW flow and rain.    The pattern evolution is obviously going back to a Nino-like set up... but that transition is still something to watch.    

I can hear the giddy tone in your voice through my screen.

[Winterdog]

Getting some kind of precip now.  Grauple I believe or snow pellets.  Rapidly covering the ground. Hopefully I’ll have a white covering of some kind before it dries up here

[iFred]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Bummer. If I was in Seattle, I'd strongly consider attending.

I'm sure a lot of folks are strongly considering. I'm strongly considering moving to a climate that sees more that dozens of inches of snow a decade.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Its probably just going to be @RentonHill and I.

Nah I'll try to make it, at least just to pop in.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

I can hear the giddy tone in your voice through my screen.

I think it’s pretty far from obvious what the pattern does for the rest of the month, once we are done with this setup.

[Randyc321]

Can we please get this unpinned?  I am tired of looking at his face every time I go to another page..

[Snownerd3000]

What is the preferred way to nowcast events?  What's your go to links?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Randyc321 said:

Can we please get this unpinned?  I am tired of looking at his face every time I go to another page..

I love how it has so many reacts that they are spilling into the next column.

[Lynnwoodweather]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nah I'll try to make it, at least just to pop in.

Don't get caught in the flurry storm!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Can we please get this unpinned?  I am tired of looking at his face every time I go to another page..

At least he kept his word and we haven't heard from him again.