January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Timmy]

Definite shift south for Saturday.  Too close for comfort here!

[MossMan]

So frustrating…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not sure why long range is being discussed on the cusp of an historic event.    I am not sure what you would call this pattern on the EPS after the middle of next on the week but its certainly not a troughy signal.    

Because it's time to start focusing on what's next. What would be great is if we get that cold shot around the 20th, the ridge builds over us and then RETROGRADES the first week of February. Then we move to false spring for the last half of February and most of March and then get pounded with a wet spring April/May. Obviously summer will be a blast furnace. 

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!

We wish 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!

6" on me. DP of 24 currently... this feels so unlikely

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS... for what its worth.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Saturday looks amazing for PDX

 

 

Snow and freezing rain totals for the Fri/Sat system.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

18z GFS looks stronger with cold air push.

This is the ideal time to see models trending better with the cold. As it’s pushing in. Opposite of what we usually see.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Because it's time to start focusing on what's next. What would be great is if we get that cold shot around the 20th, the ridge builds over us and then RETROGRADES the first week of February. Then we move to false spring for the last half of February and most of March and then get pounded with a wet spring April/May. Obviously summer will be a blast furnace. 

I think we should ignore the next 3 days and focus specifically on the first half of March!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New RDPS rolling out now... through tomorrow so far.

@ShawniganLake you say this model is good through 24-48 hours??   We will see.

Wow.. this is even more aggressive for me than the GFS. Im in the dark purple.

[North_County]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Flurries. 30.7˚F.

Is it typical for your area to take this long for temps to crash? I know, water, and all that. But even in Bellingham I'm already seeing temps in the low 20s.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!

I will take that, shows almost 3 here.

[bainbridgekid]

Echo Lake certainly living up to its name right now.

 

[Blizzard777]

Sad , south winds caught him by surprise . 
no way to port without getting swamped 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

GFS was also forecasting Spokane to be 12 degrees tomorrow at 11 am two days ago. Now it has -5.

[Kayla]

Shades of December 2022 with this run. Saturday is going to be absolutely brutal here.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New RDPS rolling out now... through tomorrow so far.

@ShawniganLake you say this model is good through 24-48 hours??   We will see.

Haha.  I’m not feeling great about what it’s doing down south.  Looking probably too suppressed.   

Love seeing all that pretty blue over My Area with the arctic front a little later today.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Kayla said:

Shades of December 2022 with this run. Saturday is going to be absolutely brutal here.

Do you go outside in that? Do you have dogs?

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New RDPS rolling out now... through tomorrow so far.

@ShawniganLake you say this model is good through 24-48 hours??   We will see.

HRDPS performs really well here. It's my go to for short term guidance. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New RDPS rolling out now... through tomorrow so far.

@ShawniganLake you say this model is good through 24-48 hours??   We will see.

I'm now up to the third shade of grey!

[bainbridgekid]

Just had a pretty heavy groupel shower here in Mountlake Terrace hit in the middle of recess. Showed my class the radar before we went out and told them to watch for “dippin’ dot” snow to start during recess so that was perfect timing to make me look like a genius.

 

[flya00]

View to the Southeast ^

View to the Northeast ^

Currently 8F with a Wind Chill of -12F in Kelowna.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Just had a pretty heavy groupel shower here in Mountlake Terrace hit in the middle of recess. Showed my class the radar before we went out and told them to watch for “dip n dot” snow to start during recess so that was perfect timing to make me look like a genius.

 

Just had a dip-n-dot shower here too... good description!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Shades of December 2022 with this run. Saturday is going to be absolutely brutal here.

What was the low temp for you then?

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New RDPS rolling out now... through tomorrow so far.

@ShawniganLake you say this model is good through 24-48 hours??   We will see.

What does the precip map look like from Friday 18z to Saturday 18z?

[North_County]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just had a pretty heavy groupel shower here in Mountlake Terrace hit in the middle of recess. Showed my class the radar before we went out and told them to watch for “dippin’ dot” snow to start during recess so that was perfect timing to make me look like a genius.

 

I had some pretty great teachers, but I wish I had had some that took opportunities to teach about the weather. Good on you.

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 43 degrees and sunny. Hoping to score something tonight

[Cold Snap]

Some graupel starting to fall from the sky here.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the radar... I completely understand what the WRF was seeing this morning.   Big question is whether it completely missed the activity coming this evening from Seattle southward.  As of now it looks like its nailed it... but guessing that won't be the case by tomorrow morning.

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Do you go outside in that? Do you have dogs?

Nope, only for very brief moments. Frostbite happens ridiculously fast in those temps, 5 minutes or so.

No dogs but I know the ones here take care of their business real fast before going right back inside!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looking at the radar... I completely understand what the WRF was seeing this morning.   Big question is whether it completely missed the activity coming this evening from Seattle southward.  As of now it looks like its nailed it... but guessing that won't be the case by tomorrow morning.

Looking at all meso models it should ramp up tonight between 6pm and midnight

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What was the low temp for you then?

BZN hit -45F. My house hit -40F but my Davis is only rated to -40F so who knows!

[RaleighHillsRunner]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Saturday looks amazing for PDX

 

 

Wondering if Mark went a bit light with his forecast totals for Saturday. That thing looks absolutely insane. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

To light on the totals. This is going to be a huge HUGE event.

Agreed! Steve thinks we could see the models trend wetter.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does the precip map look like from Friday 18z to Saturday 18z?

Only goes through 18Z Saturday I believe.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Shades of December 2022 with this run. Saturday is going to be absolutely brutal here.

 

[MossMan]

SNOWFLAKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Wondering if Mark went a bit light with his forecast totals for Saturday. That thing looks absolutely insane. 

Yeah that storm looks crazy. In addition we'll probably see 50mph gusts at least

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Nope, only for very brief moments. Frostbite happens ridiculously fast in those temps, 5 minutes or so.

No dogs but I know the ones here take care of their business real fast before going right back inside!

Can you imagine the life early settlers who had to be outside... must have been so brutal.   We are all lucky to be living now.