January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous .

Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified.  It is in 24hrs!!!

The great windstorm bust of October 2016 really did a number on them. Been very gun shy ever since. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous .

Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified.  It is in 24hrs!!!

Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Me when I see Tim post a snow map with no snow. When I see a snow map with no snow I close that sh*t out quick!

Just because there is no snow on a particular map for your backyard doesn't mean the map doesn't show lots of snow for other people on here.    

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. 

I think there will be lots of school delays and commuting issues on Wednesday. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just because there is no snow on a particular map for your backyard doesn't mean the map doesn't show lots of snow for other people on here.    

I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. I don’t care either way it’s just not fun to look at.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem down to 21 with a dp of 10. Will be interesting to see where they end up before clouds start moving in. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. 

All of them.  And Bellingham.    

And also posted RGEM and GEM which were snowy much farther south.   I don't ignore any model in these complicated scenarios. 

[Kayla]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

bruh

dude

[SnowySeeker50]

Down to 26f this evening. NWS waiting until things start happening to issue advisories as always. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think there will be lots of school delays and commuting issues on Wednesday. 

I told my boss about it a couple times recently but we’re all going into work tomorrow. Hoping I can be headed home before it starts. Depending on how the roads are Wednesday morning I don’t want to drive like I did during the last ice event. 

[SnowWillarrive]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Still snowing 

We can dream 

[Timmy]

Down to 17 here.  It has been one to remember! I am not sure I have experienced this dry of snow before in my town. It has been pleasantly easy to drive in as well. Kids have been loving sledding each day too.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I told my boss about it a couple times recently but we’re all going into work tomorrow. Hoping I can be headed home before it starts. Depending on how the roads are Wednesday morning I don’t want to drive like I did during the last ice event. 

You have until 7 or 8 p.m. tomorrow before precip starts.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. 

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I will either be heavily shadowed or dumped on depending on wind direction 

[MossMan]

Duuude…We won’t have a place to eat, what are we going to do…brah…

busted pipes are happening all over, several schools are closed tomorrow because of it, and I know Stanwood middle school was apparently a mess as well due to the same thing, they were sure if they would be able to open tomorrow or not. 

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous .

Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified.  It is in 24hrs!!!

either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet.  I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one.  I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will.  didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet.  I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one.  I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will.  didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 

I think he’s talking about no notice for freezing rain not snow. It’s pretty clear it’s going to be a problem Tuesday/ Wednesday but absolutely no warning up right now. 

[North_County]

11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. I don’t care either way it’s just not fun to look at.

I took great enjoyment in seeing Tim's snow maps, and I hope he posts more because I'm a cheapskate without a WB subscription.

[North_County]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

"But the bent-back occlusion!!!!"

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, North_County said:

I took great enjoyment in seeing Tim's snow maps, and I hope he posts more because I'm a cheapskate without a WB subscription.

It feels like he has posted snow maps with no snow for anybody’s backyard. But like I said I don’t actually care. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

NWS went all in but the low either filled or went further north before making landfall, I can’t remember now. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

NWS went all in but the low either filled or went further north before making landfall, I can’t remember now. 

It turned into a double barrel low that tracked too far away 

[bainbridgekid]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

Pretty much all models were predicting one of the strongest windstorms in Seattle history with a strong low tracking over the Olympics and bent back occlusion roaring right through the Puget Sound.  NWS warned accordingly and had pie on their face when the low deepened more than modeled, tracked further offshore, and it was hardly even breezy. 
 

The public lost a lot of their confidence in Mets after that and ever since the NWS has been extremely gun shy about predicting anything severe until it’s actually started happening. 

[Meatyorologist]

@Phil Come laugh at this with me. What a cruel joke of a sounding!!

[Chewbacca Defense]

24 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

They made a tweet

Bet it left a skid mark in their britches. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet.  I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one.  I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will.  didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 

I agree.  Just a quick glance and a lot of the possible freezing rain happens with temps right at freezing, according to the map, but they might think the actual temps will be above freezing.  Those temp maps are not a real high resolution map.  

Still it needs to be watched closely.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

ECMWF, GFS, GEM, and NAM 3km all say about 8" IMBY. HRDPS does not cover the entire length of the event yet, but is clearly trending that way.

Expecting 4–6" because temperatures will be marginal and I expect some of it will be mixed with rain. It's the old phantom snow problem.

[MWG]

Anything good happening? 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

NWS went all in but the low either filled or went further north before making landfall, I can’t remember now. 

That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO.

The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Off topic but look at radar right next to the Gulf of Mexico rn….. getting snow shouldn’t be this tough in Seattle lol

[Chewbacca Defense]

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

It was supposed to be a truly epically massive windstorm.  My wife made me go out and buy a crap-ton of extra flashlights, batteries and food because we happened to have family staying with us.  We were going to be without power for days and our guests would be stuck here (they took the train up).  My adult soccer league cancelled games that weekend because they moved the goals to more secure locations and tied them down to avoid them taking off in the wind and doing damage (I wish I was joking).

 

In the end, the wind (at least here in Bellingham) barely met advisory levels.  I don't think it got mush worse anywhere else.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO.

The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media.

I was really looking forward to that beast…That never came.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

@Phil Come laugh at this with me. What a cruel joke of a sounding!!

Just that little area!! GOOD LORD THIS AREA HATES SNOW.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy... 00Z GEM has you just inside the pepto!   

I like this trend. @TT-SEA I take back all of the horrible things I said about you to my wife, my neighbor, the meet up, the North Bend City Council, and the King County sheriff who lives a block away from you.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO.

The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media.

Didn’t it form a double barrel low as well?

[iFred]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I was really looking forward to that beast…That never came.

I wonder if there was ever a post mortem on that.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, MWG said:

Anything good happening? 

not yet

[Chewbacca Defense]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet.  I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one.  I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will.  didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 

Eh....you'd think so, but the track record for the Seattle office hasn't been stellar of late.  Lots of watches and warnings issued after we are well into the event that warranted the watch/warning.  "Hey there's 5" of snow on the ground, maybe we should issue a winter weather advisory."

 

I seem to remember that right around the time JAYA retired, a lot of other "senior" mets in the Seattle office also retired/left.

[MossMan]

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