January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 I was going to mention earlier that the initial band lasts about 4-5 hours and is north of the Seattle area by 2 a.m.     I also assume the dry air and east wind will keep the precip fairly light in that band up here.

Yeah.  Light freezing rain isn't a terrible thing like when it gets really thick.  It's actually kind of cool in small amounts.

The 18z GFS keeps the hope for alive for a little bit of snow tomorrow evening around here.  We'll see.

[thickhog]

17 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Just heard it started sleeting in Tigard! 

All sleet here! Same as Saturday

[DeepFriedEgg]

Mostly sleet now

Temp is constant but DP rising rapidly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Dave said:

Still getting the ZR. I can hear tree branches break every once in a while. The power has flickered a couple of times. On a positive note, I have about 5000 brand new icicles.

The major breaking happens when temps go back above freezing... 

[Front Ranger]

FWIW...this is where the GFS had today's storm a couple days ago.

 

And where it is now.

[Doinko]

Raining and 28 degrees. Some sleet mixed in but mostly zr

[Tyler Mode]

Salem down to 25.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah.  Light freezing rain isn't a terrible thing like when it gets really thick.  It's actually kind of cool in small amounts.

The 18z GFS keeps the hope for alive for a little bit of snow tomorrow evening around here.  We'll see.

Lots of reports of sleet down south. You think it might start as sleet up here? 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

So many fun memories as a 1st grader and digging this stuff up at the bus stop. This was around the time that I learned about the positive weenie healing powers of wheel barrow ice, a tradition that I still keep to this very day.

I have a 40 gallon garbage can full of water and it froze solid!  I have that for reasons other than watching it freeze BTW. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

It is a very wet sleet. Not fully frozen.

Reminds me of small hail

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Lots of reports of sleet down south. You think it might start as sleet up here? 

Given how dry the mid and low levels are it could happen.

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

So many fun memories as a 1st grader and digging this stuff up at the bus stop. This was around the time that I learned about the positive weenie healing powers of wheel barrow ice, a tradition that I still keep to this very day.

Got some cool WB ice here. Upside down as well!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I have a 40 gallon garbage can full of water and it froze solid!  I have that for reasons other than watching it freeze BTW. 

Behind our garage

[DeepFriedEgg]

Saturday, we had icy snow and then sleet.

Today we have wet sleet and eventually ZR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our temp bounced around quite a bit at onset it dropped to 26, but now up to 30. I don't expect a huge warm up to 50 or anything as the mid levels have cooled quite a bit. Horse Creek is down to 42 and the other station at 3900' about 9 miles east of us is down to 36, but I would expect we go above freezing in the next couple of hours. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

FWIW...this is where the GFS had today's storm a couple days ago.

 

And where it is now.

If it could just stay a bit south it could be a whole different ball game for us here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, thickhog said:

All sleet here! Same as Saturday

Just started sleeting here too!

[Gummy]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Lots of reports of sleet down south. You think it might start as sleet up here? 

We have reached that point where I am praying for 0.5 to 1.0 inches of sleet in Seattle. Desperate times indeed.

[Perturbed Member]

Sleet here

[DeepFriedEgg]

Back mostly to liquid.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If it could just stay a bit south it could be a whole different ball game for us here.

Hard to beat the ECMWF for consistency.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene should be getting a bit of a break here in an hour or so. 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note."

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html

[iFred]

53 minutes ago, Willamette Weenie said:

Feels like... coming from a self aware weather weenie, that the Willamette Valley, especially south has been seeing a lot more ice storm activity the past several years. Trying to understand the significance of climate change and how that might be impacting this region in regards to frozen precipitation. 

That or we're just heading into a new ice age and the PNW is leading the way. 

Weakened polar jet means shorter wavelengths, but also more opportune time for blocking, A warming north Pacific means that the axis of the ridge can shift further west. A delay in sea ice coverage in the Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Strait means that the storm track can hug the SIberian coast, creating stronger lows with the beautiful mixture of dry Russian air and moist Japanese moistness. These lows then pump the jet and the ridge. More tropical convective opportunities because of that warmer air means more opportunities for Kona lows which help build that ridge even further and can be useful in anchoring it. Then we have our friend the North Atlantic which also being warmer, encourages larger sprawling highs that help squeeze air out of the arctic. Then we have the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Later snowcover and lake ice mean that the storm track is further inland, allowing for an effective wall to slow any eastward progression of our cold air friend.

Lastly, as @Meatyorologist had pointed out a while ago, if we manage to get air on the western side of the Rockies, it can not only stay strapped, but at lower levels it can linger, provided that the Pacific is weak, something expected with climate change.

All of this is a bit of conjecture, a paper I read on air currents, and anecdotal evidence from the past decade of this forum, where our summers are warmer and drier, and our winters seem to be prone to more extremes.

Yeah yeah yeah, I know from a few of you, some of whom I respect and would like to get a beer to bond over our shared love of cold, snow, ice, dark Pacific Northwest winters, will have to say that I am being "CNN Fred", a liberal loon who is pushing some global warming agenda, and you'd mostly be right. If you want to argue that aspect, meet me in the Off Topic forum.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Eugene should be getting a bit of a break here in an hour or so. 

Good thing, because they've only inched up 1 degree an hour for the past 3 hours to 28 now.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here we go, starting to come down hard now. Weather app says heavy snow but it’s actually heavy sleet!

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note."

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html

That means we're going to be measuring snow in feet and freezing rain in inches. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 I was going to mention earlier that the initial band lasts about 4-5 hours and is north of the Seattle area by 2 a.m.     I also assume the dry air and east wind will keep the precip fairly light in that band up here.

Can you run this loop?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note."

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html

No idea why he does this because it just sets him up for a major fail.   Warn people of the real possibility and say it will be a close call with temperature.   It is what it is.   But saying nothing will happen is in direct contrast with even the gold standard ECMWF.  

[iFred]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Behind our garage

We are all kindred spirits.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea why he does this because it just sets him up for a major fail.   Warn people of the real possibility and say it will be a close call with temperature.   It is what it is.   But saying nothing will happen is in direct contrast with even the gold standard ECMWF.  

He lives and dies with his WRF.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

We are all kindred spirits.

It's a blank picture for me. I'm assuming the camera is buried under snow and ice, is this from 12/15/2024?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Can you run this loop?

Latest HRRR goes through mid morning tomorrow.   00Z run will go out 48 hours.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm having sleet and a lot of it

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note."

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html

Roads are too warm!

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's a blank picture for me. I'm assuming the camera is buried under snow and ice. I'm assuming this is from 12/15/2024

iOS beta bug in action.

Second try.

My wife asked me what I was doing, I told her that I'd stop doing this if we moved to Minneapolis. She stopped asking me questions after that.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, iFred said:

iOS beta bug in action.

Second try.

My wife asked me what I was doing, I told her that I'd stop doing this if we moved to Minneapolis. She stopped asking me questions after that.

 

apps-fileview.texmex_20240111.00_p1

 

 

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[Lars43]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I think so. The ice on top of the snow/sleet is making things look shiny.

Not the main road, shared driveway. Here is a picture from an hour ago of the main road. We just lost power. Still 26 rain has not stopped. 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea why he does this because it just sets him up for a major fail.   Warn people of the real possibility and say it will be a close call with temperature.   It is what it is.   But saying nothing will happen is in direct contrast with even the gold standard ECMWF.  

It seems like the NWS and other popular online weather commentators have really been placing an emphasis on communicating uncertainty these last few years. Cliff appears to have taken the opposite approach.

[iFred]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Roads are too warm!

Must be a cold day in hell when this Joe guy agrees with Cliff Mass.