January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

You want ZR? Are you a masochist?

I like all exciting out of the norm (47 degree warm front drizzle for days on end) weather! So yes! 

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Crazy.   Sleet or rain down there?

90% rain. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Since the low seems to be moving in South of Portland, I see the East winds staying longer and not really getting a South wind. I think I'm going to be in the ice box for awhile  

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Down to 31 with freezing rain here. Cars starting to glaze over and the driveway was noticably slippery walking around. Still also some puddles and a liquid layer on top of the ice forming.

I've hardly ever experienced ZR so it's an interesting experience at this less impactful level.

You are wrong and clearly do not know what you are talking about.  Cliff Mass says so.

[LowerGarfield]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah and if/when it does get vertically stacked that usually denotes occlusion. Mid-latitude cyclones aren’t like hurricanes, where vertical alignment is prerequisite for rapid strengthening. If anything it’s the opposite.

Those WxBell “L” symbols are useful for tracking mature(ing) tropical systems. Meaningless for middle latitude cyclones, though.

What was your final total for snow?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I bet it snows here tomorrow. I'm definitely noticing a southward shift compared to model guidance. Lows like these can compound errors fast if models are biased against or towards a steady rate of strengthening.

You are getting snow tomorrow... count on it.   That is 100% serious.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

You are getting snow tomorrow... count on it.   That is 100% serious.

MBG Tim?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

90% rain. 

Ugggh.    Looks like precip might let up soon though.  

[RentonHill]

Cliff gonna have a big long blog post tomorrow explaining how he was "right" because downtown never saw freezing rain and blah blah blah blah the haters tried to get him again but failed etc etc

[snow_wizard]

30.2 and everything is coated here now.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Low quality image (thanks iPhone) but already a layer of ice on everything. However I believe in Cliff Mass since he said there is no way freezing rain is possible and I shouldn’t look outside

This guy is so out of touch lmao 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I like all exciting out of the norm (47 degree warm front drizzle for days on end) weather! So yes! 

Given how fragile your power grid is, I think that’s analogous to someone in Oklahoma rooting for a tornado.

Good luck, brother!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Cliff gonna have a big long blog post tomorrow explaining how he was "right" because downtown never saw freezing rain and blah blah blah blah the haters tried to get him again but failed etc etc

#fakefreeze #oldmanwinter

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Cliff gonna have a big long blog post tomorrow explaining how he was "right" because downtown never saw freezing rain and blah blah blah blah the haters tried to get him again but failed etc etc

I have no idea what he was thinking.  He knows evaporative cooling is a thing.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Since the low seems to be moving in South of Portland, I see the East winds staying longer and not really getting a South wind. I think I'm going to be in the ice box for awhile  

Wow it looks like it’s headed for a Central Oregon Coast landfall.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You are getting snow tomorrow... count on it.   That is 100% serious.

Yeah that low is juuuuuust starting to hook north, but it's far too late. This is a Jim-style bust and I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast deteriorates rapidly for the poor folks at the NWS tonight.

VERY interesting situation.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Given how fragile your power grid is, I think that’s analogous to someone in Oklahoma rooting for a tornado.

Good luck, brother!

I am set up to be just fine off the grid for quite a while if needed. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Cliff gonna have a big long blog post tomorrow explaining how he was "right" because downtown never saw freezing rain and blah blah blah blah the haters tried to get him again but failed etc etc

Perhaps that's what he really meant?

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no idea what he was thinking.  He knows evaporative cooling is a thing.

i mean...literally only downside for him on that one. Why?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah that low is juuuuuust starting to hook north, but it's far too late. This is a Jim-style bust and I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast deteriorates rapidly for the poor folks at the NWS tonight.

VERY interesting situation.

The Oregon coast low is not the low for tomorrow.  That thing cruises across Oregon tonight.  

[The Ms. Anthrop]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no idea what he was thinking.  He knows evaporative cooling is a thing.

Does he though? Cause he knows roads are always warm and ZR isn't happening right now. I'm just saying...

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no idea what he was thinking.  He knows evaporative cooling is a thing.

Verbatim this is a fairly borderline sounding, though. Maybe things work differently in the PNW w/rt low level advection, but this would never culminate in a severe ice storm in my region. Too easy to mix out.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If a Heat Wave is classified as 3 straight days of 90+ highs. Then it’s winter equivalent a Cold Wave aka Arctic Blast should be classified as 3 straight subfreezing highs. And we accomplished just that. Make that 4 straight subfreezing highs for PDX. 

[MossMan]

Lynden is down to 29 degrees. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am amazed how far south this low is coming in at. I know it has caught me by surprise. Looks like a small band of snow is getting close to Spokane, so looking forward to that!  

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah that low is juuuuuust starting to hook north, but it's far too late. This is a Jim-style bust and I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast deteriorates rapidly for the poor folks at the NWS tonight.

VERY interesting situation.

At least they put out that advisory. Some local community colleges cancelled evening classes based on that warning, which is good because those students weren't driving home in this. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The Oregon coast low is not the low for tomorrow.  That thing cruises across Oregon tonight.  

oh you're right..

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Perhaps that's what he really meant?

[Ken in Wood Village]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Wow it looks like it’s headed for a Central Oregon Coast landfall.

Yea!! Normally when it goes there the east winds don't let up which keeps pumping out cold air to the Portland area and especially my area. The temperature is 20.7° degrees. It was almost 19 at one point. We'll see what happens tomorrow morning. I'm getting some sleep, night. 

[Fircrest]

Still light rain and 34.  Nothing frozen here except for the ground under the coating of fresh rain.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

6 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Since the low seems to be moving in South of Portland, I see the East winds staying longer and not really getting a South wind. I think I'm going to be in the ice box for awhile  

Icing up everywhere, still no power at the house - so done with this event. These wind storms with some adjacent frozenish precipitation are no fun.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i mean...literally only downside for him on that one. Why?

Because he doesn't have everyone looking to HIM for the answers. They are looking elsewhere and that's wrong. He's the expert on all the local weather phenomena. And he's going to let us know it, whether we ask or not.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Verbatim this is a fairly borderline sounding, though. Maybe things work differently in the PNW w/rt low level advection, but this would never culminate in a severe ice storm in my region.

I think everyone would agree that it’s borderline. The problem is that we don’t treat our side roads and have hills so the last time we had maybe a quarter inch of ice in Seattle the parked cars started spontaneously sliding down hills and crashing into each other. So even 0.1” with our frozen ground is going to cause crashes. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah that low is juuuuuust starting to hook north, but it's far too late. This is a Jim-style bust and I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast deteriorates rapidly for the poor folks at the NWS tonight.

VERY interesting situation.

A secondary low is shown forming off of the NW Washington coast.  Or at least that’s what the models are seeing. That low headed for Oregon was never going to Make it that far north. 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Verbatim this is a fairly borderline sounding, though. Maybe things work differently out there, but this would never culminate in a severe ice storm in my region.

This isn’t a severe ice storm like last winter. That was quite severe. Currently the roads were treated nicely last few days so i dont expect that to be an issue. Untreated surfaces however is getting a little bit of coating

[Phishy Wx]

4z HRRR shows the surface energy transfer from the OR low to the BC shortwave between h7 and h8, at h9 new surface low is just west of Seattle over Olympics similar to Euro

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Apparently our road doesn't have ice yet, but the sidewalk and garbage cans do. Odds on garbage collection being cancelled for .1 inch of ice or less? (To be fair, I don't want those massive things driving around and trying to stop in any amount of ice on these hills.)

[MossMan]

Currently 6 degrees at Stevens Pass, and 7 at Snoqualmie Pass. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I think everyone would agree that it’s borderline. The problem is that we don’t treat our side roads and have hills so the last time we had maybe a quarter inch of ice in Seattle the parked cars started spontaneously sliding down hills and crashing into each other. So even 0.1” with our frozen ground is going to cause crashes. 

Whoever makes those decisions sounds like an incompetent buffoon.

[KingstonWX]

Temp says 30 but nothing seems to be frozen. If you go outside, it just feels like a typical rain event. Odd.