January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Still looking good for some weekend 50-burgers for many. A 60-burger is in reach for Roseburg.

[antipex]

7 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Definitely melting out there, but it's doing what I remember it doing in the Midwest: melting from elevated surfaces but freezing on exposed pavement, because the ground is so cold and frozen. First time I have seen it do that in the PNW.

This happens regularly up here. It’s going to be quite a mess with 14” of snow on the ground and a slow thaw coming this weekend.

Temps starting on the 11th:

24/-3

-3/-19

-5/-21

3/-12

3/-15

11/0

14/9

17/-4

Temps would have been quite a bit colder at night last weekend if the wind had slacked. Instead we had -40 wind chills.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

BTW, long-term average max for SEA, PDX, and EUG for today is 48˚F for all three stations. So a 50-burger doesn’t necessarily represent much of a departure from the norm.

[Ken in Wood Village]

We still don't have power the road conditions in my area are bad. I took these pictures at 3:30am this morning. I can't believe how amazing this camera on this phone is. It looks like it's light out but it's not and there is no power. 

[ajreich]

Ugh, well after 6 days we finally lost power last night too. The west hills are a disaster - it was hovering around 28 all night and looked like a thick glazing on everything again. So now no water and no power and no ETA on either. Luckily we escaped yesterday morning before the ice started again and are holed up in a 600 sq/ft apartment with two kids and two dogs. Fun times! But we have power and water, and maybe school will actually happen today though

What a storm! I’m still amazed at the persistences of the cold and big busts from the models (Aside from the GFS I think?) Wishing everyone else a speedy warm up and recovery.

[Darrington Troll]

I know this has already been discussed, but Cliff’s predictions have been mostly wrong since snowmaggedon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had a 50-burger yesterday, but down to 33 this morning. 

[the_convergence_zone]

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

All things considered, I can't be too mad. A PSCZ surprise and a high of 22F is savory. Getting shafted is part of the deal living where I live...alongside the convenience of living in a good neighborhood in a large city.

Hell, strictly speaking, my little corner of town did the best overall this event, even if it was just a skiff!

What I’ll remember from this event is going for a run at 3 in the afternoon with a temperature of 18 F and steam fog coming off of the Sound. Coldest airmass I’ve seen here by a considerable margin. 

[The Blob]

The transportation team at work had one heck of a night. 50mph winds and more freezing rain. No one can understand why they haven't closed the building down. 

Meanwhile I'm stuck at home with 3 stir crazy kids going crazy myself.

[Phishy Wx]

some sand dune-esque drifts around, not much snow this round.  still 19 with a howling NE wind

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 32 here, with a high of 34 so far. A light glaze on everything but I think we escaped the worst of it.

Was surprised to see PDX hang around 36-37 all night. Today will probably be their first 40+ day in a week.

[Slushy Inch]

Some interesting mid range changes on the gfs. Going to keep my eyes on the models still.

[MossMan]

37 degrees and a little breezy. 

[Skagit Weather]

37F here after a pretty wet night. Still 1-1.5" of snow hanging around although the snowman has already fallen. Looks like I picked up 1.25" of precipitation in the last 3 days with 0.5" of that since midnight. That puts me at 3.5" for the month. I average around 5" in January so if the Euro is correct I'll probably end up a bit above average.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rain and 32.4˚F. Snow has compacted a lot but not much actual melting going on.

[Phil]

I can’t recall the last time a storm overperformed to this extent. Maybe the blizzard of 2000? Either way it’s a throwback to the days when last minute surprises were more common and guidance was less reliable.

What looked like a 1-3” event 18hrs could end up being a 6-10” event instead.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I went outside and walked to the street I would need to drive down to Sandy Blvd. It's all thick ice. I may have a Subaru but I don't have the right traction tires to get down the hill. 

I still don't have power hopefully we will get power back soon. 

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

I can’t recall the last time a storm overperformed to this extent. Maybe the blizzard of 2000? Either way it’s a throwback to the days when last minute surprises were more common and guidance was less reliable.

What looked like a 1-3” event 18hrs could end up being a 6-10” event instead.

Enjoy it Phil because it’s coming…

102 degree temperatures with a heat index of 130!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

BTW, long-term average max for SEA, PDX, and EUG for today is 48˚F for all three stations. So a 50-burger doesn’t necessarily represent much of a departure from the norm.

That's 30 year average I think? I'm seeing long term average for SEA of 45.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's 30 year average I think? I'm seeing long term average for SEA of 45.

It's whatever the NWS climo page reports here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Would have been significantly colder at the surface if only the arctic front had been juicier and laid down a good blanket of snow as it came in. If that had happened, @snow_wizard's wish of seeing a 1950 redux would have been reality, at least for a few days.

My thoughts also. If we would have had gotten 2-4in through the initial storm, Seattle would have gotten 20 plus inches this past week. 

[Front Ranger]

52 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

What I’ll remember from this event is going for a run at 3 in the afternoon with a temperature of 18 F and steam fog coming off of the Sound. Coldest airmass I’ve seen here by a considerable margin. 

The afternoon temps from SEA north on 1/12 were the coldest since Feb 1989, and in the top 3-4 on record.

[Andstorm]

Looking to me like this is prob it for winter in lowlands, at least around Portland. Extended models all appear innocuous and by mid-Feb, especially in an El Niño, it would take the perfect set up. This will ultimately look in records like a fairly dud winter. I believe the official snow total over weekend was 1.5 inches. Goes to show that looking at the annual snow totals doesn’t always tell a full picture, since this was most certainly a historic cold blast. Looking forward to a potential Niña transition and the excitement that brings next winter. Feeling a possible white christmas. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's whatever the NWS climo page reports here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew

Yeah, that's the 30 year. And we all know how warm Januarys have been the past few decades in the PNW. About 1.5 degrees warmer than December - which is far from the long term norm.

[ShawniganLake]

Days are getting longer and spring is on the horizon.  Honestly though, the mountains are in pretty bad shape snowpack wise in BC.  We need some mountain snow. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

14 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Here's a higher resolution version: Seasonal Snowfall

And specifically for the Puget Sound

I'm on the cusp of yellow. 11.5" this season from 3 separate snowfalls.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Odd temp behavior out here. The neighbors sensors read the same, so I don’t think mine is broken.

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Days are getting longer and spring is on the horizon.  Honestly though, the mountains are in pretty bad shape snowpack wise in BC.  We need some mountain snow. 

Yeah, really hoping the atmospheric rivers on the horizon aren't too warm. Otherwise we're going to end up losing any of the snow we just picked up. North Cascades are still only 60% of normal and the Olympics are abysmal.

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Odd temp behavior out here. The neighbors sensors read the same, so I don’t think mine is broken.

Your sensor is fine. Mine looks the same. It’s just a result of the very slow warm up and of course because we had such low temperatures last week it emphasizes the lack of change even more in the graph.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Your sensor is fine. Mine looks the same. It’s just a result of the very slow warm up and of course because we had such low temperatures last week it emphasizes the lack of change even more in the graph.

Pretty wild. I'm sure the snow pack also keeps it moderate. Going to be a very foggy few days as this all melts. 

[LowerGarfield]

No photo but it looks like we got an additional .20 of a sleet/snow mix overnight. 

[MossMan]

People are losing their minds on the community pages this morning because Stanwood SD is 2hrs late…These are people in town and at sea level that have nothing on the ground or the roads. They forget that it’s a different world on the other side of I-5 which is also Stanwood SD. This might not look bad but it’s still icy, not sure I remember a time where we have been above freezing for almost 24hrs now and there was still ice on the roads, even where it’s bare asphalt in this picture which I just took on the way to work. 
 

Side note…It’s coming…Pothole city is coming!! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

People are losing their minds on the community pages this morning because Stanwood SD is 2hrs late…These are people in town and at sea level that have nothing on the ground or the roads. They forget that it’s a different world on the other side of I-5 which is also Stanwood SD. This might not look bad but it’s still icy, not sure I remember a time where we have been above freezing for almost 24hrs now and there was still ice on the roads, even where it’s bare asphalt in this picture which I just took on the way to work. 
 

Side note…It’s coming…Pothole city is coming!! 

That happens here in Bellingham.  All the folks west of I-5 (and below about 200 feet, and within a mile or 2 of the water) get cranky when schools are closed, forgetting about all of the areas that are at 500 or even 1000 feet.  Also, Sudden Valley gets down right treacherous during these events.

 

Just got back from taking my wife to an  appointment, and once we got on the main roads everything was mostly fine, but there were still a few icy patches on main roads despite the road being plowed/salted/sanded.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is up to 43 now.    

[The Blob]

33 here, I've sent the husband out on a coffee mission to see how the roads are. I'll likely stay home from work another night. Not the vacation I was wanting to take.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

 

I'll start the next round of fantasy casting

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 

I'll start the next round of fantasy casting

Lock it in!

[MossMan]

Hopefully that PNA continues to free fall once we hit the first week of February! Let’s have another snowy SuperBowl! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's whatever the NWS climo page reports here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew

I think it's the 30 year average. 30+ years of January torching has caught up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, WOW, WWWWWOOOOWWWW