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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Thursdays high? This can’t be right. This is why I don’t like high res models. Sometimes they put out ridiculous stuff.

38AE6218-9165-4485-9E05-91FE6BF99DD8.png

Can we see PDX plz?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The NAM spits out over half an inch of freezing rain for Seattle on THURSDAY. It’s just silly cold that day with highs below freezing throughout the Sound. Not happening but interesting to see. That model does some very odd things.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The NAM spits out nearly a half inch of freezing rain around Seattle on THURSDAY. It’s just silly cold that day with highs below freezing throughout the Sound. Not happening but interesting to see. 

It is pulling some Frazer outflow down and pulling cold air from the passes. Looks like a bunch of offshore flow. Also shows snow here all day.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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22 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

That seems like it would be common in Montana except maybe Troy or Libby?

Libby and Troy actually do okay on snow despite their low elevation simply because that part of the state gets so much moisture.  I just hate probabilistic forecasts that say we are 100% guaranteed to get X amount.

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Thursdays high? This can’t be right. This is why I don’t like high res models. Sometimes they put out ridiculous stuff.

38AE6218-9165-4485-9E05-91FE6BF99DD8.png

Can we see PDX plz? Accidentally posted twice. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Has just been very light rain so far…but heavier radar returns are moving in. Should drop below freezing soon. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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ICON, NAM, and all the mesoscale models (HRRR and the rest of the alphabet soup on Pivotal) have all shifted south on their 00z runs with snowfall estimates. And the RGEM continues to show almost a foot of snow here. The UKMET and Euro are basically the only model runs to show no snow here so it will be interesting to see if they cave when they come out.

31F here with a dp of 27F.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

sold their snowplows?  wow, that's dumb, even for the banana belt

To be honest, I hear rumors of this everywhere, but the roads there were noticeably worse than ours and everyone in the L-C valley says that about Lewiston. I did look for a source and haven't found anything to actually confirm but it would be on point for that city.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

however your cloud is broken

Phish, someone I know lives in Spokane Valley  on the east side and they claimed they were only getting a half inch out of the snow. I hope I didn't jinx it for you but I posted that snow map on in reply.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

ICON, NAM, and all the mesoscale models (HRRR and the rest of the alphabet soup on Pivotal) have all shifted south on their 00z runs with snowfall estimates. And the RGEM continues to show almost a foot of snow here. The UKMET and Euro are basically the only model runs to show no snow here so it will be interesting to see if they cave when they come out.

31F here with a dp of 27F.

Well I guess I should stage my plow after all! 
And were did Tim go? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Interesting that the temp at OLM has not dropped since the start of the precip there around 6:30.   Currently light rain and 34.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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On 1/15/2024 at 8:13 AM, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hear me out here, I don't think we're in for a big warm up YET. that low is going to track further east and south, which will give us more cold air from BC and Alberta. The willamette valley will have freezing rain for a bit but then it will convert to snow, and the cold north winds will continue. December 2008 everyone was almost 100% sure it was going to warm up, and it didn't. It could happen again...

 

I'm probably going to be extremely wrong but one can dream.

A lot of this has gone right so far. Low has tracked both south and east, it has been much colder than forecast, and there's still north winds even in Eugene. The convert to snow part probably won't happen, but its definitely going to stay colder longer than forecast.

 

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong but it seems like the low is at about 44N 128W right now, not bad!

202401170250.jpg

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Coldest temp this winter: -6 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated March 4th) 124" 

Snow depth at my home (updated 2pm March 4th): 12"

Annual snowfall at home (updated 2PM March 4th): 72"

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Wrong guy, guy.  We got 9" of snow last year, it took 11 different "events" to reach that.

Nah, I live in Kingston, man. We don't ever get snow, lol. So even you are ahead of me on the 'total enjoyment index'. 

I'm just playing around though :)

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2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

29.7 degrees with light wind due east here in North Bend. Given wind doesn’t shift until 12 pm tomorrow I am expecting this area gets hit pretty hard. EURO often overdoes east winds which would also overdue the drying element from stronger winds. 

One note... it can slowly warm even with the east wind.   The entire air mass is warming.   Not saying that will happen but it could go up to 32 or 33 before noon tomorrow.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ICON shows warmer air will not make it to King County tomorrow like it showed on earlier runs...30s all day.  Brings some snow into SW King County now.  Just need it to be even more south as the time frame narrows.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just raining here in Fircrest and 34.  I don't see us getting any freezing rain at all. It generally has to be below freezing when the precipitation starts for the liquid to freeze. So I'm not sure why there was so much talk of freezing rain coming by some. The frozen ground really isn't making a difference. Unless things change when the heavier precipitation moves in, this is a non-event. 

Lame.

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29 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The Dalles out in the Columbia Gorge getting hammered right now with heavy snow and it’s 12 degrees.

IMG_2923.jpeg.e677d558f5c6801d5cce58e179d09cab.jpeg

My brother and sister in-law got an early start today and left Vancouver, WA at 8am or so which is amazing for them since they have two young children and are extreme night owls. They left to beat the ice storm warning. Can't imagine them driving in that now. Got here about 3 hours ago with generally good conditions.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

One note... it can slowly warm even with the east wind.   The entire air mass in warming.   Not saying that will happen but it could go up to 32 or 33 before noon tomorrow.  

That could happen.  Tomorrow is looking pretty chilly at this point though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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