February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Up to almost 3", currently 28 degrees. 

[Slushy Inch]

Seems like a big model difference is how well the stronger banding over Oregon holds together as it moves north. This model looks like best case scenario for PS.

[Phishy Wx]

35 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Haha. Hilarious how bent out of shape people get about a tree. 

Palm Tree Posse Unite!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Seems like a big model difference is how well the stronger banding over Oregon holds together as it moves north. This look model looks like best case scenario for PS.

I've given up on rooting for the willamette valley (except maybe northeast Portland) and now I'm rootingnfor yall up in the Puget Sound! This forecast looks amazing! 

 

I'm curious, who's gotten the least snow in recent years, Olympia, Tacoma, or Seattle? Seattle usually gets the least of the 3, right?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Seems like a big model difference is how well the stronger banding over Oregon holds together as it moves north. This look model looks like best case scenario for PS.

This model is on acid, last night it shows nothing almost and now it shows more snow on the east side of kitsap lol. NOPE.

[OysterPrintout]

15 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Portland NWS is just straight up bad at forecasting close call winter events in the lowlands. It’s embarrassing. 

Last few events have certainly felt a little bizarro world to me from the office. Jan event had them saying the front was stalling and predicting 6-10" but radar looked paltry and very similar to modeling. This update from half an hour ago has: 

"The addition of high resolution guidance has significantly increased the
probabilities of snow accumulation for these areas, including for the
greater Portland and Vancouver metro area"

 

What hi-res guidance is showing this? The only mention I see from them is HREF. GRAF/NAM/WRF/Euro are all in team nada to maybe some snow in the air at times.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I've given up on rooting for the willamette valley (except maybe northeast Portland) and now I'm rootingnfor yall up in the Puget Sound! This forecast looks amazing! 

 

I'm curious, who's gotten the least snow in recent years, Olympia, Tacoma, or Seattle? Seattle usually gets the least of the 3, right?

Definitely the swamp aka the Puyallup Valley. The Tacoma area is historically the worst for a multitude of reasons (shadowing, warm nose, etc). The worst city for snow in Washington is Fife hands down.

[Phishy Wx]

34 with DP of 21

wind E at 17, WC is 26

It would snow if we could get some moisture in here, but were on a boundary between dry canadian air and the warmer, moister air coming up from the SW

 

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Last few events have certainly felt a little bizarro world to me from the office. Jan event had them saying the front was stalling and predicting 6-10" but radar looked paltry and very similar to modeling. This update from half an hour ago has: 

"The addition of high resolution guidance has significantly increased the
probabilities of snow accumulation for these areas, including for the
greater Portland and Vancouver metro area"

 

What hi-res guidance is showing this? The only mention I see from them is HREF. GRAF/NAM/WRF/Euro are all in team nada to maybe some snow in the air at times.

They're scared, after what happened last February. I completely understand where they're coming from, this is probably the right way to go about forecasting, after all of the times they said it wasn't going to snow and it snowed a ton.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I've given up on rooting for the willamette valley (except maybe northeast Portland) and now I'm rootingnfor yall up in the Puget Sound! This forecast looks amazing! 

 

I'm curious, who's gotten the least snow in recent years, Olympia, Tacoma, or Seattle? Seattle usually gets the least of the 3, right?

Can't speak for the other locales but the last time there was more than 1 inch of snow in downtown Seattle was December 2021. No reason to think that will change tonight, although the higher hills may do better again as they did in the half dozen marginal events from the 2022-23 winter. 

Statistically I think Sea-Tac ends up looking the best of those three spots historically because it's farther north and located at 400 ft elevation. 

 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Can't speak for the other locales but the last time there was more than 1 inch of snow in downtown Seattle was December 2021. No reason to think that will change tonight, although the higher hills may do better again as they did in the half dozen marginal events from the 2022-23 winter. 

Statistically I think Sea-Tac ends up looking the best of those three spots historically because it's farther north and located at 400 ft elevation. 

 

How much did the immediate downtown area get in February 2019/2021?

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

They're scared, after what happened last February. I completely understand where they're coming from, this is probably the right way to go about forecasting, after all of the times they said it wasn't going to snow and it snowed a ton.

I get that and hey they are the experts here so we'll see how their meso analysis goes but in the end this cuts both ways, eventually the public shrugs off snow warnings that are inevitably rain.

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Seems like a big model difference is how well the stronger banding over Oregon holds together as it moves north. This model looks like best case scenario for PS.

I’m going to chose to believe the Euro as it give me a solid half inch!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m going to chose to believe the Euro as it give me a solid half inch!! 

I will go with about 2 inches for you, you wont escape this.

[the_convergence_zone]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How much did the immediate downtown area get in February 2019/2021?

Did well in both of those events. Around 8 inches in Feb 2021 if I recall correctly. None of the Feb 2019 events had issues with marginal snow levels, so I bet it was around 20 inches total, similar to the airport. 

[fubario]

2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Olympia, Chehalis, and Hood Canal.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
347 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

WAZ504-511-512-142100-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WW.Y.0006.240215T0600Z-240215T1800Z/
Southwest Interior-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester,
Centralia, Toledo, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano,
Elma, and McCleary
347 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to
  two inches.

* WHERE...Lowlands of Thurston, western Lewis, and far southeast
  Mason Counties, including Harstine Island, Olympia, Centralia,
  and Toledo, Western Kitsap and the lowlands of eastern
  Jefferson and Mason Counties, including Brinnon, Seabeck, and
  Shelton and Far southwest Mason County and the interior
  lowlands of Grays Harbor County, including Matlock, McCleary,
  and Montesano.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

all my oly homies rn..

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Last few events have certainly felt a little bizarro world to me from the office. Jan event had them saying the front was stalling and predicting 6-10" but radar looked paltry and very similar to modeling. This update from half an hour ago has: 

"The addition of high resolution guidance has significantly increased the
probabilities of snow accumulation for these areas, including for the
greater Portland and Vancouver metro area"

 

What hi-res guidance is showing this? The only mention I see from them is HREF. GRAF/NAM/WRF/Euro are all in team nada to maybe some snow in the air at times.

They lost me entirely a couple years ago when their discussions went almost entirely a discussion of probability percentages.

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Up to almost 3", currently 28 degrees. 

The death of February (cough...Phil) was greatly exaggerated.

[SnowWillarrive]

34 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Definitely the swamp aka the Puyallup Valley. The Tacoma area is historically the worst for a multitude of reasons (shadowing, warm nose, etc). The worst city for snow in Washington is Fife hands down.

I’ll take this. Someone mind posting the WXbell map. It’s prettier. 
 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The death of February (cough...Phil) was greatly exaggerated.

Some snow at 4,000 ft in central Oregon isn’t all that hard to do even in a warm overall Feb (which this has been/will continue to be)

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’ll take this. Someone mind posting the WXbell map. 
 

Likely for Western WA. Pasco/Kennewick/Richland "Tri Cities", Gorge Ampitheater near Royal City (Mattawa I think is the driest place in the state) or Clarkston closer to my area probably have it beat on the east side due to low elevation and shadowing.

[SouthHillFrosty]

The 18z NAM just cut the QPF in HALF for Seattle WOW. I expect the GFS to follow. Can't beat the Euro from this range.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The 18z NAM just cut the QPF in HALF for Seattle WOW. I expect the GFS to follow. Can't beat the Euro from this range.

All I want is a slushy inch

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

All I want is a slushy inch

Doesn't look good unfortunately. Models starting to pick up an inch for @MossMan.... I expect he get's 2-3 inches from this somehow

[snow_wizard]

53 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Definitely the swamp aka the Puyallup Valley. The Tacoma area is historically the worst for a multitude of reasons (shadowing, warm nose, etc). The worst city for snow in Washington is Fife hands down.

South Coast is probably worse.

[DareDuck]

About 1.5” here in Bend. Very heavy snow with huge flakes right now. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Doesn't look good unfortunately. Models starting to pick up an inch for @MossMan.... I expect he get's 2-3 inches from this somehow

The 6-8 theme continues for here. It has been very consistant

[snow_wizard]

One of the big winners could be Chris.  I'm surprised he's not on here today.  Looks like the Central Puget Sound (east side) will be the big loser this winter barring something big around March 1.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

South Coast is probably worse.

@Deweydogwould like to regale you with glowing tales of the Chinook/Ilwaco snow belt.

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The 18z NAM just cut the QPF in HALF for Seattle WOW. I expect the GFS to follow. Can't beat the Euro from this range.

I don’t trust the nam.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I don’t trust the nam.

I don't either, but the chances of us ending up pretty dry are high.

[DareDuck]

This deer is just hanging out behind my house waiting out the storm. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I don’t trust the nam.

I don't either man.... but it nailed an event last year for me when I got 3-4in of slop and no other model picked it up

[bainbridgekid]

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The 18z NAM just cut the QPF in HALF for Seattle WOW. I expect the GFS to follow. Can't beat the Euro from this range.

 

 

It only cut it in half from the ridiculously wet 12z. Other model runs of the NAM have been much more in line with the 18z. Half inch of QPF for Seattle is still a lot.

[snow_wizard]

The place I'm not sure about is the Interior north of Everett.  Could be moisture starved up there.  Hard call.

[snow_wizard]

In some ways this is like a poor mans Feb 1995.  Could be 94 I'm thinking of, but I'm pretty sure it's 95.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

33 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’ll take this. Someone mind posting the WXbell map. It’s prettier. 
 

This wants to give me 6"+ not sure I believe that. Must be thinking some outflow enhancement. 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

@Deweydogwould like to regale you with glowing tales of the Chinook/Ilwaco snow belt.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In some ways this is like a poor mans Feb 1995.  Could be 94 I'm thinking of, but I'm pretty sure it's 95.

There was a feb 95 event that dropped 3 feet in 2 days on the canal.

[SnowWillarrive]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One of the big winners could be Chris.  I'm surprised he's not on here today.  Looks like the Central Puget Sound (east side) will be the big loser this winter barring something big around March 1.

We been screwed all winter. Hopefully tonight can provide some relief to bring to winter to a C+