Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 00z GFS Ensembles. After a brief surge in 850s, temps cool. Long range a lot of mountain snow. Portland Seattle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, MossMan said: I want to dial up a day like this again! Whoa! I've never used this function on Dark Sky. This is so cool! Now I'll never get to sleep tonight. Although its accuracy seems questionable as it says it would have been a couple degrees cooler here on the 13th than you which would be surprising if true. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Barring any major change tomorrow to put the storm (somehow) back in play, this thing is obviously a bust. But man, I would prefer a wind storm to break down 48 hours out versus 4-6 hours before, like the 2016 one. If all day today we were getting the same 975mb with a shot of landfall from Vancouver South Tip to Ocean Shores, then we woke up tomorrow to the same 970-980, Central Coast to Vancouver Isl. By then, the news stations would have needed to start the hype train, then to have THAT bust Thursday night into Friday, then that would have been truly horrendous. I MUCH prefer models busting a few days before the event, so it is just those of us who know how forecasting works that get disappointed. We get bummed, but we also understand how models work and how difficult these things are to forecast. I would much rather have that, versus Aunt Karen who doubled up her batteries and got bottled water and firewood, and now you have to try and explain that the news stations are not in cahoots with the NWS to hustle purposefully bad weather forecasts just so Duracell and Duralog can make more money. Sadly I changed the name to Aunt Karen to save their identity, but these are conversations I have ALL the time with weather novices that think a busted event is a conspiracy. (Shocking!) So, a 48 hour or more notice is fine by me! 4 1 Quote -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Day 8 YUCK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 YUCK I’ve seen worse in January 2018,19,20... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Is it really a bust? It's still just Wednesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Is it really a bust? It's still just Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Euro looks much improved compared to its 12z run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: Euro looks much improved compared to its 12z run. It is. For sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 I dunno about these models. Looking at IR Loop there is a definite nice looking wave with tight circulation just west of the date line. Call me skeptical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: I dunno about these models. Looking at IR Loop there is a definite nice looking wave with tight circulation just west of the date line. Call me skeptical. Absolutely. Initialization has been terrible the last 36 hours. Definitely could wobble back. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Still shows some decent winds for the south valley on Friday even with it being a boring open wave. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 10:30 PM WV/IR Imagery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Down to 5 at Burns. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: 10:30 PM WV/IR Imagery Did some investigating, and in all fairness, the ECMWF initialization wasn't *that* terrible. Could be undervaluing intensification (a common bias by nearly all models this year, especially with regard to tropical convection), which in an exponential intensification situation like this could lead to a stronger storm than modeled. But the model consensus for a weaker storm is pretty damning for its future, regardless of minor initialization errors. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 And Springfield has ourselves freeze number 12. Did not think we would get there before midnight so we will be ticking off number 13 in just a little bit. Should have a nice negative departure. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 hours ago, MossMan said: I want to dial up a day like this again! How do you get it to work? When I do it https://darksky.net/forecast/40.7127,-74.0059/us12/en Typing a city does nothing on either Edge or Firefox on my computer. It appears this is IOS only as in smartphone only which I hope not. per the trend these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 EC Ensemble 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: EC Ensemble Yuck. Not a fan.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: It's kind of hard to tell but there are some 980-985mb lows in there tracking through WA (and off the coast still) on the 00z EPS. Still a very slight chance this thing improves a hair down the home stretch. Maybe 40-50 mph instead of 30-40. Very boom-or-bust situation. Everyone's hopped off the train and gone home, but I'm at least waiting at the station while it's stopped, just in case this isn't its final destination. Enough with the dumb metaphors 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Alright. I am off. If you like strong/high winds, root for a huge shift with 12z runs. Have a good night. 6z GFS in 1 hour 25 minutes 12z NAM in 5 hours 32 minutes 12z GFS in 7 hours 25 minutes 12z GEM in 7 hours 55 minutes 12z ECMWF in 9 hours 40 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Very boom-or-bust situation. Everyone's hopped off the train and gone home, but I'm at least waiting at the station while it's stopped, just in case this isn't its final destination. Enough with the dumb metaphors It's unrealistic to expect a Columbus Day event but also just as foolish to think we aren't in the proverbial crosshairs "somewhere". Developing lows with strengths sub 975mb are few and far between south of the border and it's best to follow climatology at this juncture. Is a strong wind event completely out of the cards (no) but a destructive regionwide event has definitely been minimized. I like Rob's approach, wait for the 12Z and see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Not seeing much to warrant a night shift so I may turn in early also. Maybe we'll get a surprise in the morning runs. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Stronger than average again, but not extraordinarily so. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Oh it's 28F another of many freezing nights. Last night even sneaked down to 38F for a short bit before rising. Wish I knew how the guy's historical weather thing works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Classes have me up late again, so I thought I'd stop by and post. ICON is about 6-8mb stronger and has a landfall further north, near the sweetspot for winds in Seattle. Only gets muddled by its formation as a dual-low complex; a very detailed and complicated mesoscale setup that is nearly impossible to forecast more than a day out. 12z model suite in a few hours. The next 24 hours will really be the deciding factors on whether this will be a non-event or a significant storm. The storm is ejecting right now so this is a critical time in its early development. With this kind of jet in place, who knows what could happen. On a side note, the 06z suite is all screwy. Not showing up on any websites right now, except for the NAM, which is no different than its previous run. See y'all in the morning. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Gfs broke Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Frosty with patches of fog around, and a low of 32 this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 And now the 12z ICON, for maximum model chaos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Not sure if I've ever seen the models struggle this badly with a low inside of 48 hours. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jesse Posted November 12, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood. 12 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, van city said: How well did we do that winter? I think Matt was the only one alive during that season. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Models need to make up their minds for f*cks sake. Low of 38 here this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 06z Euro also increased wind gusts a bit, especially for Oregon. Had a bit of a double barrel low look to it as well, with one moving in around the tip of the Olympic Peninsula and another into the Columbia. Probably still high enough to knock out the power at my place. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Not sure if I've ever seen the models struggle this badly with a low inside of 48 hours. Pandemic = fewer flights = less atmospheric data collected = crappier model accuracy. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GFS continues to look a bit underwhelming but, again, it is an improvement by 5-10 mph in some spots over the 00z, mainly in Oregon. Seems there is a slight increase of wind gust speeds across most major model suites this morning. Take what we can get at this point. I’m surprised that the GFS shows me getting 50 mph gusts. May be a decently stormy day even without a strong compact low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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