November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Southern low is clearly the dominant one.

Anyone want to take a minute or two and help a n00b out by annotating/drawing/identifying exactly what and where you guys are looking on the loops to make this determination? Like, how would you present this to a 101 class of "whats going on here"

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[FroYoBro]

Nice cold trough showing up at days 9-10 on the 12z GFS. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

8:20 AM Still a lot of lightning occurring associated with the southern low indicating strengthening.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hoping for an update fairly soon from either Medford, Seattle, or PDX NWS regarding the southern low.

 

12z ECMWF in 48 minutes

[TacomaWaWx]

0.08” so far this morning. 3.61” for November and more rains coming. 

[TacomaWaWx]

25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS Seattle seems to think nothing higher than 35 mph for a majority of the Sound.

Although, this graphic doesn't seem to match with their current warnings. Forks is showing in that same bracket yet is under a HWW where they say to expect gusts up to 60 mph. Not sure what's going on.

Some of the models are showing widespread 45-50mph gusts through the central and south sound with 50-60mph in the north interior. Interested to see if they change their minds on the forecast. 

[Dave]

Nws says gusts up to 24mph here. Time to put the storm shutters up.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

25 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hoping for an update fairly soon from either Medford, Seattle, or PDX NWS regarding the southern low.

 

12z ECMWF in 48 minutes

So when is the data collected for the 12Z runs?  Has to be before 4AM PST, so maybe closer to 2 or 3 AM?  Maybe that is why the 12Z models haven't shown the Southern low possibly becoming the dominant low.

[MossMan]

I am going to include myself in this High Wind Warning since I’m less than a mile from the Skagit border. Bring on the winds!! 

[jakerepp]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am going to include myself in this High Wind Warning since I’m less than a mile from the Skagit border. Bring on the winds!! 

Doesn't work that way, Randy. 

The winds obey county borders and will not cross into Snohomish county. Sorry to disappoint. 

[Jbolin]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am going to include myself in this High Wind Warning since I’m less than a mile from the Skagit border. Bring on the winds!! 

I always knew you were a "move the goalposts to win the game" kinda guy.

Now do it for snow would ya?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 6.39" on the month. Going to likely end up solidly above average in the rainfall department. 

[Gradient Keeper]

15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So when is the data collected for the 12Z runs?  Has to be before 4AM PST, so maybe closer to 2 or 3 AM?  Maybe that is why the 12Z models haven't shown the Southern low possibly becoming the dominant low.

Makes sense.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 49F. Currently 50F so another warmer than normal day looking likely.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Up to 6.39" on the month. Going to likely end up solidly above average in the rainfall department. 

I had probably November's average precip (or near average) in just 16 hours. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

I had probably November's average precip (or near average) in just 16 hours. lol

Our average is over 10" in November, so we would be building an ark if that happened here. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our average is over 10" in November, so we would be building an ark if that happened here. 

I had a couple days in October 2016 slightly wetter than yesterday, but of course on a shorter-lived scale.

Having rain almost a day straight is a once a year occurrence here I imagine.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

Edited November 16, 2020 by DJ Droppin
00z? What. Am I asleep? Okay.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ugh, WB at a snail's pace and then sometimes not even being able to load the next frame for long periods of time. What a bummer

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It would appear I am the only person experiencing issues with WB...

[Jesse]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ugh, WB at a snail's pace and then sometimes not even being able to load the next frame for long periods of time. What a bummer

They really need to build a 16 lane super highway between your house and weather bell. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

OK, more frames loaded. Operational EC just has a coastal storm.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This is what I got for the Euro.  And this is in knots, not MPH

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

They really need to build a 16 lane super highway between your house and weather bell. 

Nah, 4-lanes divided would be plenty, just enough to pass those slow vehicles and get a better view of the scenery.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Matches up well with NWS Seattle forecast for Puget Sound.

Definitely less strong than NAM and GFS.

Trip to Hurricane Ridge?

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Doesn't work that way, Randy. 

The winds obey county borders and will not cross into Snohomish county. Sorry to disappoint. 

Kind of like how the arctic air constantly gets turned away at the border year after year. Someone open these borders!

[TacomaWaWx]

Which map is the current one the one hawks posted or Brian? If it’s the one Brian posted we’re in for it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Looks a lot like 00z run last night.

[Gradient Keeper]

Alright. I have to step out for a bit. Be back later. Someone please take over for me. Thanks.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Which map is the current one the one hawks posted or Brian? If it’s the one Brian posted we’re in for it. 

Wish I knew, strange there would be a difference, not sure what that difference is.

Here is another look at wind gusts, from weather.us

 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

This is what I got for the Euro.  And this is in knots, not MPH

So if I convert my location to MPH I’m looking at gusts to 60...Respectable. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Wish I knew, strange there would be a difference, not sure what that difference is.

Here is another look at wind gusts, from weather.us

 

This only shows me gusting to about 50MPH. 

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This only shows me gusting to about 50MPH. 

C'mon man, only 50mph, I hope you aren't like this when the ECMWF shows you getting 40" in 24 hours on XMAS DAY GODDAMIT!

Do you get my "drift"?

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Jbolin said:

C'mon man, only 50mph, I hope you aren't like this when the ECMWF shows you getting 40" in 24 hours on XMAS DAY GODDAMIT!

Do you get my "drift"?

Wait, the ECMWF is going to show TWO FEET of snow on Christmas??

Were you in one of those secret phone conferences with DomeBuster?