November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[snow_wizard 10260]

Really dynamic temperature swings this month.  From a +15 daily departure from normal on the 4th, to a -11 on the 9th, to a +10 on the 17th.  I always like seeing that.

[Deweydog 13361]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really dynamic temperature swings this month.  From a +15 daily departure from normal on the 4th, to a -11 on the 9th, to a +10 on the 17th.  I always like seeing that.

WUACD’s.

[snow_wizard 10260]

The EPS looks more like the ECMWF operational and the Canadian on the trough for the middle of next week.  Looks potentially chilly.  In fact it's trending toward a more negative PNA look in general for most of the run.

[snow_wizard 10260]

This La Nina is about to get a serious shot of adrenaline from a huge trade wind bust.  This one might get it down close to -2 by the time it's done.  Another interesting thing about this graph is you can see how the westerly (positive) wind anomalies creeping westward perfectly corresponds with  our big weather change that came around October 20th.  It will be interesting to see what happens when this burst begins to abate and the westerly anomaly creeps westward again.

 

[Tyler Mode 1532]

Ahh Cape D!  When I first started taking wave pictures there, I'd be the only one...now there is a row of photographers!  This one worked best in black and white.

[Tyler Mode 1532]

Today the sun will rise at 12:54 in Barrow (Utqiagvik), Alaska and sets just 34 minutes later. It will be the last time the town sees the sun until January 22nd, 2021.

Another interesting fact, the sun would not be visible above the horizon, but refraction from the earth's atmosphere bends the light so it is able to be seen. The sun never make it past -0.2 degrees BELOW the horizon.

 

So, when you think it's dark and gloomy here...remember this

 

[FroYoBro 2437]

Very wet out there this morning. Bringing my temperature down to a reasonable 45 degrees. Should be getting more mountain snow today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

06z was much drier than previous runs. 

[Front Ranger 7398]

Big step in the right direction for Thanksgiving week by the Euro and CMC. GFS continues to be crap, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

Pretty nice shot of rain and mountain snow moving through this morning. 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5244]

Currently 48F with some light rain this morning.

[snow_wizard 10260]

Another fantastic CFS run for the month of January on today's 0z.  Looks like 1/2 to 2/3 of the runs have shown a major blast in that month.

[Weather1011 1121]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

A healthy 0.73” of rain since midnight. 7.73” on the month, just under 3” from our monthly average. 

[seattleweatherguy 439]

43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another fantastic CFS run for the month of January on today's 0z.  Looks like 1/2 to 2/3 of the runs have shown a major blast in that month.

Major blast in historical potential or more like "Canadian cold"

[Jesse 7913]

Wet morning. About .30" overnight.

46 degrees currently.

[Timmy_Supercell 2044]

Nice showers again today. Still 12 days to go in November and curious where my precip ends up this year.

Wonder if it stacks up to 2016 or maybe even 2010.

[hawkstwelve 5572]

Apparently a lightning bolt struck a tree on my parents property last night around 7PM, pretty close to their house. They said it sounded like it was right on top of them. Top branches of the tree are burned to a crisp and a sliver of the tree was carved out and fell off.

Carnation always gets more interesting weather than Maple Valley. Should have never moved.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

Looks like the snow level is down to around 3500’ in the Santiam pass area with wet snow now falling at Santiam Jnct, per cams. Still rain at government camp, but I would expect that to transition as we go through the morning. This last shower dropped us from 44 to 41.

[MossMan 9449]

.18” so far on the day. 

[Jesse 7913]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the snow level is down to around 3500’ in the Santiam pass area with wet snow now falling at Santiam Jnct, per cams. Still rain at government camp, but I would expect that to transition as we go through the morning. This last shower dropped us from 44 to 41.

Willamette Pass looks to be doing well Andrew.

[Timmy_Supercell 2044]

They love my place. 

[Timmy_Supercell 2044]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the snow level is down to around 3500’ in the Santiam pass area with wet snow now falling at Santiam Jnct, per cams. Still rain at government camp, but I would expect that to transition as we go through the morning. This last shower dropped us from 44 to 41.

Hope all the burn areas look green next year. 

[Timmy_Supercell 2044]

23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Apparently a lightning bolt struck a tree on my parents property last night around 7PM, pretty close to their house. They said it sounded like it was right on top of them. Top branches of the tree are burned to a crisp and a sliver of the tree was carved out and fell off.

Carnation always gets more interesting weather than Maple Valley. Should have never moved.

Never had a tree hit by lightning (yet) but probably have gotten close to that a few times. I've had lightning close enough that it was making popping/crackling noises around electrical outlets outside our house (July 2017) and one time I heard a loud noise coming from our kitchen that I swear was also from lightning. Luckily it was just the time of day nobody was showering or running water then. 

[TacomaWaWx 3523]

Low of 45 this morning 4th morning in a row with the same low temp. 0.15” this morning to hit 5.09” for the month. 

[hawkstwelve 5572]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 45 this morning 4th morning in a row with the same low temp. 0.15” this morning to hit 5.09” for the month. 

Analog anyone???

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

GFS is king boring today. 

[Jesse 7913]

12Z GFS looks to be falling more into line with the Euro as far as the overall pattern. Still not as deep with the troughing but not as mild as previous runs either.

[hawkstwelve 5572]

Could certainly be worse than this...

[Timmy_Supercell 2044]

Some snowpack on gawd emperor euro but mediocre for my place in the 10-day.

Maybe the bomb low last year around Thanksgiving hexed it for 2020.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5244]

Patience, it's coming.

[Timmy_Supercell 2044]

Still well under my first full inch of snow as of November 18th. You could say both 2011 and 2010 were snowier this time of year east of the cascades.

[JBolin 887]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Patience, it's coming.

Do we have to wait for christmas?

[TigerWoodsLibido 5244]

Just now, Jbolin said:

Do we have to wait for christmas?

It's a secret.

[Omegaraptor 2142]

Timberline Lodge base already down to 32” from the 44” it was before this warm rain event. 

New GFS is honestly looking good, it’s drier than previous runs but most of the precip on it comes from cold fronts.

I might get torn apart for this, but dry is better than snowpack-destroying warm rain.

[MossMan 9449]

4 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Do we have to wait for christmas?

12/26/20

[Jesse 7913]

13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Timberline Lodge base already down to 32” from the 44” it was before this warm rain event. 

New GFS is honestly looking good, it’s drier than previous runs but most of the precip on it comes from cold fronts.

I might get torn apart for this, but dry is better than snowpack-destroying warm rain.

Snow levels have been down around 4,000' since last night. I don't think they got much rain up at 6,000' the last few days, the decrease in depth is probably due to the snow compacting.

And yes, that last opinion is absolutely wrong. Last January had a lot of "warm rain" but was killer in the mountains.

[Timmy_Supercell 2044]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Timberline Lodge base already down to 32” from the 44” it was before this warm rain event. 

New GFS is honestly looking good, it’s drier than previous runs but most of the precip on it comes from cold fronts.

I might get torn apart for this, but dry is better than snowpack-destroying warm rain.

It's mid-November. Snow levels fluctuating between 2-8k in late Fall isn't unheard of.

Plus, most windstorm events are not exactly favorable for keeping snowpack.

[Jesse 7913]

Live shot of the warm rain event at Timberline Lodge.

[MossMan 9449]

I feel like there is something wrong with the Stevens Pass summit temp sensor. I don’t think the road would be that snow covered at 34 degrees. Especially since DOT is always on top of clearing/treating that road. 

[TacomaWaWx 3523]

Today is day 7 in a row with rainfall here...and we’ve had 14 rainfall days this month. The last 2 weeks have been our wettest stretch of weather since January. 

[AlTahoe 291]

Man this year is not off to a good start. Some parts of Norcal and the Central Valley look to have their driest Oct-Nov ever recorded. Some areas are in the 0 - .05" range. Not a good start after coming off of the driest winter ever recorded for the north coast regions. Long range shows nothing for at least 10 or more days as well. 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5244]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I feel like there is something wrong with the Stevens Pass summit temp sensor. I don’t think the road would be that snow covered at 34 degrees. Especially since DOT is always on top of clearing/treating that road. 

We had snow-covered roads at 34F during and after 2-25-19.

[Jesse 7913]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Man this year is not off to a good start. Some parts of Norcal and the Central Valley look to have their driest Oct-Nov ever recorded. Some areas are in the 0 - .05" range. Not a good start after coming off of the driest winter ever recorded for the north coast regions. Long range shows nothing for at least 10 or more days as well. 

Best start to the season in over a decade for the mountains up here.

It's too bad CA can't catch a break lately. We were down in the Bass Lake area in June, really enjoyed the beauty of those Sierra Foothills. That whole area burned in a massive fire later in the summer.

[MossMan 9449]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We had snow-covered roads at 34F during and after 2-25-19.

Just has that drier looking/compact snow and ice look to it. Seems like that sensor has been running warm. 

[Jesse 7913]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just has that drier looking/compact snow and ice look to it. Seems like that sensor has been running warm. 

I agree that it looks too powdery and frozen to be 34 degree snow.

[TacomaWaWx 3523]

This fall has been warmer and wetter than the last 2. We had 7.29” total rainfall in the fall of 2018 and 8.70” last fall...#1 and #2 driest autumns back to back. So far we’re at 10.54” this fall and will probably end up close to 12”. This fall will likely be a couple degrees warmer in terms of average tempature as well. Winters only 12 days away! 

[Jesse 7913]

Nice area of moderate precip moving into the metro area.

[Timmy_Supercell 2044]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This fall has been warmer and wetter than the last 2. We had 7.29” total rainfall in the fall of 2018 and 8.70” last fall...#1 and #2 driest autumns back to back. So far we’re at 10.54” this fall and will probably end up close to 12”. This fall will likely be a couple degrees warmer in terms of average tempature as well. 

Mid-November so far has turned things around a bit. But yeah early Fall was bone dry. This was my second October in a row pretty close to zero precip and my Sep-Oct 60 day group was near top 5 dry tier. 

[TacomaWaWx 3523]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

Mid-November so far has turned things around a bit. But yeah early Fall was bone dry. This was my second October in a row pretty close to zero precip and my Sep-Oct 60 day group was near top 5 dry tier. 

Must’ve been nice getting almost an inch of rain the other day. September was a bit above average precip here October slightly below normal. Key difference this fall compared to the last 2 is November being pretty wet finally.