November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was the earliest snow since I have lived here. We got about 1.5” that morning. It went from about 60 with heavy rain to snow and 32 in a couple hours.

You’ll get some earlier snow this year Andrew 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You’ll get some earlier snow this year Andrew 

Not this year! Maybe in December. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Front just passed through about an hour ago with heavy rain and gusty winds. That's now over, and I can now see patches of blue sky. Current temperature is 45°F, a few degrees colder than it was overnight.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not this year! Maybe in December. 

Nothing this November? I wouldn't be so sure! If I'm getting some this month you might.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro shows practically a region-wide windstorm. As others have mentioned, it's very quick hitting and only lasts a couple hours overall. 

That looks pretty intense. Interesting to see the Friday storm taken away this weekend quickly replaced by another big event on the horizon. Gfs and the NAM look on board too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

Nothing this November? I wouldn't so sure! If I'm getting some this month you might.

We ll see. Maybe after thanksgiving if it happens. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like about 48 hours of warm weather at the passes with the only period if significant rain being tomorrow morning. Mid week looks like a good snow dump.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We ll see. Maybe after thanksgiving if it happens. 

Annually I see some sort of snow last week of November.

If this year is supposed to be even better than 2019, I had at least 1/2' foot last November.

[TacomaWaWx]

Have picked up 0.13” so far this morning to hit 3.41” for November. Mild morning low of 45. 

[Skagit Weather]

Mount Baker almost has a base of 50" already. Depending on how much rain they get in the next couple days, it shouldn't be too hard for them to open during this upcoming week. Of course how the new shutdown affects them will be interesting to follow.

[El_Nina]

Woken up by a downpour this morning. Up to 0.60" today and 5.44" for November. 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 hours ago, Jbolin said:

I think it was January two years ago where a sucker event came through the central sound, knocked out power to over 100K in a little less than 3 hours. There was (what seemed like) endless power flashes from nearly every direction. 

The whole event last barely 5 hours from start to finish but for nearly 2.5 hours straight the wind gusts were repeatedly exceeding over 70+mph (especially in elevated/non - windbreak area/s). 

I'm wondering if the models are struggling to handle this possible feature due to some possible enhancement of the BBO/poisonous tail?

That’s the Event we were talking about this morning..1/6/19. Definitely hit the south and central sound harder than the north sound winds were only strong for an hour and a half or two but did a lot of damage within that time. Seems similar to this potential event in how it could be a very quick hitter. We will see though maybe by this time tomorrow there will be a better agreement on it. 

[MossMan]

Had a windstorm and no power 10yrs ago today according to my FB memories. 

[Omegaraptor]

44” base at both Meadows and Timberline. Well on our way to the 100” by Christmas I was hoping for.

[Timmy Supercell]

KLMT is getting upwards of 1/2" inch of rain today! Wettest day since my severe thunderstorm on 08/05.

Still coming down moderately. 

[seattleweatherguy]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That looks pretty intense. Interesting to see the Friday storm taken away this weekend quickly replaced by another big event on the horizon. Gfs and the NAM look on board too. 

Do not think the gfs and nam show 60 plus winds though maybe 40 to 50

[MossMan]

Massive dumpage at the moment! 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Do not think the gfs and nam show 60 plus winds though maybe 40 to 50

Down here the Gfs shows 50mph. Nam is at 55mph and Euro is 60mph. Unless we manage another epic model fizzle like Friday the 13th good bet for strong winds. 

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass says no windstorm for Seattle area. 

[Timmy Supercell]

40 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Had a windstorm and no power 10yrs ago today according to my FB memories. 

I was spending my last couple weeks in Hillsboro

[Timmy Supercell]

I don't think it has ever stopped raining for a single minute since midnight.

Not many 12-24hr straight rains happen here.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass says no windstorm for Seattle area. 

That was yesterday morning. Models have changed since then now they’re showing a wind event. 

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass says no windstorm for Seattle area. 

This after his first "bust" of the season. 

Oook then

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That was yesterday morning. Models have changed since then now they’re showing a wind event. 

True.  I just read it, and he was only talking about the low going into BC.  He didn't mention anything about the triple point low spinning into Washington.  

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro cut a ways back on wind gusts vs. 06z.

Honestly expected this. 06z was on the far high end of possibilities. 

Windier for me however!

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

There was snow here on this morning 5 years ago...

 

That was a nice little snow event!  Great snowball snow as I got my grandson good that morning

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Windier for me however!

Same here!

[Timmy Supercell]

0.60" at KLMT, still raining! 

[snow_wizard]

No doubt if this storm were going to track closer to the coast it would be one of the worst on record.  As it is it's going to be too far out to bring anything that serious.  This is probably a better bet for the Willamette Valley than the Seattle area.

[snow_wizard]

It is certainly remarkable how much windier the 6z ECMWF was than the 12z.  It showed considerably tighter pressure gradients in spite of the storm track being similar.  This will probably come down to harder to forecast small scale features.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows a strong low tracking across NW Oregon late in the run with another one starting to bomb out off the coast at the very end.  Going to be more chances coming up it appears.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty surprising to see the forum so dead on the weekend and with an active pattern going.

[TacomaWaWx]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows a strong low tracking across NW Oregon late in the run with another one starting to bomb out off the coast at the very end.  Going to be more chances coming up it appears.

I think we may get strong winds out of this system coming Tuesday still. 60-70mph was definitely on the high end but 45-55mph isn’t out of the question yet it’s a hard forecast. Either way there will probably be a decent windstorm sometime with the current active pattern...one of these lows will eventually line up just right and we will get a good storm. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty surprising to see the forum so dead on the weekend and with an active pattern going.

A lot is going on. With shut downs, holidays coming up, finals etc

[Timmy Supercell]

It took a whopping 12 hours to let up, but more is on the way as I type! Wet day!

Now around 3/4" at KLMT.

Another 1/2" or so and this will match the severe thunderstorm I had last summer.

[snow_wizard]

Fans of snow in the mountains should be quite happy with the 12z EPS.  Cool zonal flow for much of week two.  Nice to get this now and get the big time blocking later.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

It took a whopping 12 hours to let up, but more is on the way as I type! Wet day!

Now around 3/4" at KLMT.

Another 1/2" or so and this will match the severe thunderstorm I had last summer.

Pretty unusual for that area.  Way wetter than it's been here today.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Fans of snow in the mountains should be quite happy with the 12z EPS.  Cool zonal flow for much of week two.  Nice to get this now and get the big time blocking later.

Yeah, the ridging was weak and short-lived in the EPS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 6.15” on the month. 

[MossMan]

Up to 48 degrees. 
.07” so far on the day.