December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well, 1988/89 and 2017/18 were/are the closest SSTA/warm pool matches, and have been for months. Looking farther back, 1942/43 (reconstructed) is relatively close as well.

Also, there’s some lower frequency homogeneities between 2020 and 1995/96 & 2010/11. While they were different in terms of the timing and amplitude of their respective intraseasonal cycles, especially in November, the low pass signals are increasingly adjacent.

The vast majority of analogs I’ve looked at featured significant western cold/snow at some point.

Neither of those delivered much in the way of January action in the PNW, FWIW. 1989 did have a border-hugger arctic event early in the month and then a couple of lame troughs.

January is a pretty dastardly and problematic stretch of calendar here, really. I propose renaming it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

A few more tigers seem to be roaming the woods this morning.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

32 minutes ago, Canadian guy said:

My location warmed up to 35 after the front passed but other parts of Victoria climbed to 40. Was surprised to wake up to a temp of 28 this morning  with hardly any melting other than on the cement and trees.

Same here, I think the clear skies really helped. The air dried out a bit too. Surface radiation is very effective in those conditions. I took a walk out and the snow is crisp/crunchy now with the slush having turned to ice. Still plenty of snow on the road here, I think it caught the city off guard because they haven't done anything to clear it and they're normally pretty quick on it around here.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Does anybody have any sunshine data? It feels like we are getting more sun than normal this winter

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's this? Some kind of overrunning event?

Gorge outflow looks to be involved. If it happens, PDX will probably get ice instead of snow.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Does anybody have any sunshine data? It feels like we are getting more sun than normal this winter

Please, don't.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Gorge outflow looks to be involved. If it happens, PDX will probably get ice instead of snow.

Pointless to even speculate this far out. But in general gorge outflow is no more likely to produce ice than snow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Same here, I think the clear skies really helped. The air dried out a bit too. Surface radiation is very effective in those conditions. I took a walk out and the snow is crisp/crunchy now with the slush having turned to ice. Still plenty of snow on the road here, I think it caught the city off guard because they haven't done anything to clear it and they're normally pretty quick on it around here.

It was a major forecast bust on this side of the border. Read the forecast discussions going into the event, and mets just wouldn’t take the model runs calling for snow seriously. Even as the snow started to fall and stick, the official forecasts at best made a passing mention of brief wet snow but mostly were calling for rain. I did not notice a single snow-related weather advisory for the lowlands.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Gorge outflow looks to be involved. If it happens, PDX will probably get ice instead of snow.

The 216 hour HRRR looked pretty dire for snow chances west of Rooster Rock with that.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Pointless to even speculate this far out. But in general gorge outflow is no more likely to produce ice than snow.

In my experience, ice is much more likely than snow for minor Gorge outflow events like the one being hinted at in that model run.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Please, don't.

It is an actual question! My office is surrounded by windows and I feel that I am having to close more blinds to block the sun than normal!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

It is an actual question! My office is surrounded by windows and I feel that I am having to close more blinds to block the sun than normal!

The sun is really bright here today. Snow-covered ground will do that.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was a major forecast bust on this side of the border. Read the forecast discussions going into the event, and mets just wouldn’t take the model runs calling for snow seriously. Even as the snow started to fall and stick, the official forecasts at best made a passing mention of brief wet snow but mostly were calling for rain. I did not notice a single snow-related weather advisory for the lowlands.

Pretty big bust here too though they started throwing out advisories the day before. The forecast for Victoria 2 days before it happened was 50F / 39F with rain.

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

How is the fiber in Bozeman? Seriously considering a move if I don’t end up back on the east coast by 2025.

It's getting there and is expanding quickly. We still do not have it in our neighborhood on the south end of town but it sounds like CenturyLink is going to run it here by this summer. Tech and fiber optics industry is booming here and of course COVID is accelerating fiber laying. 

Real estate pricing is absolutely soaring here now (median home prices jumped nearly 100k in August alone) so be prepared for that. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In my experience, ice is much more likely than snow for minor Gorge outflow events like the one being hinted at in that model run.

Just a product of the air column overhead. Portland can see widespread snowfalls with fairly marginal upper level airmasses if the column cooperates. See 1/3/2016, 12/29/2009, and 12/18/2005 for 21st century examples.

In fact, it generally takes a pretty high end low level airmass (January 2004, February 1996, January 1979) to see really widespread icing in the Portland metro. Otherwise 33-34 degree rain is more common once you get away from the gorge.

[AbbyJr]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump.

Without a doubt. It's bizarre. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The sun is really bright here today. Snow-covered ground will do that.

Well we only got a trace so that melted last night. My question was whether if we are getting more sun than normal this winter. I'll just do some digging around

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I drove through Bozeman this summer and crossed it off my list forever (I'm sure Kayla is not sad about that.). Exorbitant home prices. Tourist trap feel. Bend, Oregon north.  Really beautiful area though. Astonishingly. 

[MossMan]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes, and 2017/18 had the SSW in February as well. This year it will probably occur during the 1st half of January..pretty much the ideal time to have it with respect to the seasonal cycle.

Oh February 2018

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was a major forecast bust on this side of the border. Read the forecast discussions going into the event, and mets just wouldn’t take the model runs calling for snow seriously. Even as the snow started to fall and stick, the official forecasts at best made a passing mention of brief wet snow but mostly were calling for rain. I did not notice a single snow-related weather advisory for the lowlands.

I had 3.5” of snow, had a snow covered I-5 up here and yet I don’t think NWS Seattle ever issued a WWA. Crazy! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Oh February 2018

It was a good stretch for favored areas. We had 18.3" that month, some sub-freezing highs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

I had 3.5” of snow, had a snow covered I-5 up here and yet I don’t think NWS Seattle ever issued a WWA. Crazy! 

3.5" is a pretty solid event no matter which way you slice it!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Great article from Scott Sistek about the crazy weather yesterday.  And yes, the first time in Seattle history that a record high also had snowfall.  Lots of interesting stats.

59...then snowing?!? Seattle's zany Solstice storm was warmest snow day on record | KOMO (komonews.com)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow speaking of Bozeman!

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was a good stretch for favored areas. We had 18.3" that month, some sub-freezing highs. 

Yeah that was a wonderful stretch, loved the several sun freezing highs for that time of the year! Though the chunky hard snow started ripping my dogs paws up so I had to put booties on my young BC. 

[Kayla]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I drove through Bozeman this summer and crossed it off my list forever (I'm sure Kayla is not sad about that.). Exorbitant home prices. Tourist trap feel. Bend, Oregon north.  Really beautiful area though. Astonishingly. 

Yeah I think the that ball was rolling before we moved here but it is quite astonishing how much its changed since we moved here 4 years ago. We didn't move to Bend for that very reason but here we are now. COVID is just accelerating the whole process and it's sad to see. It truly is a gorgeous microclimate area with more snow than you could ever ask for. I really wish the door had slammed shut after we moved.

We feel really fortunate that we bought land and built when we did cause there is no way that we could afford it now. The value of our home has seen nearly a 70% increase (and counting) since completion 3 years ago. 

[Kayla]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow speaking of Bozeman!

Nice to see some actual Arctic air cross the border within the somewhat believable range at least.

[Tyler Mode]

Just had a nice little hail shower here, wasn't expect that today.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... jet extension in the long range.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I think the that ball was rolling before we moved here but it is quite astonishing how much its changed since we moved here 4 years ago. We didn't move to Bend for that very reason but here we are now. COVID is just accelerating the whole process and it's sad to see. It truly is a gorgeous microclimate area with more snow than you could ever ask for. I really wish the door had slammed shut after we moved.

We feel really fortunate that we bought land and built when we did cause there is no way that we could afford it now. The value of our home has seen nearly a 70% increase (and counting) since completion 3 years ago. 

That's some good timing. At least if you ever do decide to move on you will have tremendous equity. My wife has a friend who just moved there and paid something like 380K for a townhouse. He's really into skiing though, and got a pretty good job there, he is in IT I believe. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... jet extension in the long range.

 

Not terrible, at least maybe some good mountains snows in the long range. A consolidated jet would be a nice first step. 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... jet extension in the long range.

 

Wow. **** this Winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wow. **** this Winter.

What were you expecting? An arctic blast?

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wow. **** this Winter.

It’s over? 

[Front Ranger]

44 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's getting there and is expanding quickly. We still do not have it in our neighborhood on the south end of town but it sounds like CenturyLink is going to run it here by this summer. Tech and fiber optics industry is booming here and of course COVID is accelerating fiber laying. 

Real estate pricing is absolutely soaring here now (median home prices jumped nearly 100k in August alone) so be prepared for that. 

As someone who works in real estate, I have to assume you mean year over year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Region 3.4 came in at -0.9C last week FWIW.

[Kayla]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As someone who works in real estate, I have to assume you mean year over year. 

I wish I did...

https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/bozeman-gallatin-county-housing-prices-escalate-median-prices-approach-600k/article_944d8c86-b089-597d-8235-5b6512e05a7b.html

https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/real-estate-numbers-continue-to-spike-in-bozeman-gallatin-county/article_15a9ef5d-c110-598d-b4cc-09f93de9df29.html

[MossMan]

At least (up here anyway) we are out of the cluster of crappy winters that were 13/14-15/16. Those were horrible for the most part. Good snowfalls in December 16, 17, 20, and a big windstorm in 19. Then the great (up here) event January of last year, and good to epic events every February starting in 2017. Hard to complain about that! Would like to see more dynamic wind events again and less boring stretches/split flow stuff but otherwise it’s been a good series of seasons! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I wish I did...

https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/bozeman-gallatin-county-housing-prices-escalate-median-prices-approach-600k/article_944d8c86-b089-597d-8235-5b6512e05a7b.html

WOW! You are approaching Tim's zipcode there!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I think the that ball was rolling before we moved here but it is quite astonishing how much its changed since we moved here 4 years ago. We didn't move to Bend for that very reason but here we are now. COVID is just accelerating the whole process and it's sad to see. It truly is a gorgeous microclimate area with more snow than you could ever ask for. I really wish the door had slammed shut after we moved.

We feel really fortunate that we bought land and built when we did cause there is no way that we could afford it now. The value of our home has seen nearly a 70% increase (and counting) since completion 3 years ago. 

The same process is well underway in Bellingham. I moved here once I realized I could cash out my expensive home in Seattle and semi-retire here, but I am hardly the only one and the resulting upward pressure on housing costs has been very hard on those trying to buy with only a Whatcom County salary or wage to rely on; jobs just do not pay that well up this way.

Bellingham is definitely not the industrial-town-with-a-college that it once was. It’s turning into Santa Barbara North, like it or not.